Transcript Regional implications of climate and societal change for

RegIS2: Regional Climate Change
Impact & Response Studies
Dr Ian Holman
Institute of Water and Environment
Cranfield University
Silsoe
Bedford
Project duration- 1st September 2003 to 31st August 2005
http://www.silsoe.cranfield.ac.uk/iwe/projects/regis/regis2.htm
Overview
 Introduction to RegIS1
 Recommendations for future IA’s
 RegIS2- rationale and framework
 RegIS2 Interface tool
 Conclusions
RegIS- from sectoral assessment…..
Most studies:
Climate change
Sector
Impact
(effect)
??
…to Integrated Assessment?
BIODIVERSITY
AGRICULTURE
Ecosystems, species
Yields, profitability
& habitats
& land use
MODELS &
INTERACTIONS
WATER
quantity, quality
& flooding
SCENARIOS
Climate and
socio-economic
change
COASTAL ZONE
Sea level rise,
flooding & erosion
GIS DATABASE
Model inputs &
outputs, landscape
characteristics
STAKEHOLDERS
INTEGRATED
ASSESSMENT
RegIS: Regional Climate Change Impact & Response Studies
 1st integrated assessment of climate change in UK
 Considered socio-economic and climate change
 4 sectors- coasts, agriculture, water & biodiversity
 Interactions between sectors through linked models
Two contrasting regions- North West & East Anglia
5 km x 5 km
http://www.silsoe.cranfield.ac.uk/iwe/projects/regis/
The RegIS Study Area
• Contrasting climate, landuse, landscape
Example results from RegIS1
Flooding
Scenarios
Agriculture
Recharge + run-off
Hydrology &
groundwater resources
Biodiversity
RegIS1
• Long model run times
• No hard linkages- data ‘pass the parcel’
• >1Gb of model output per run
• Questions identified by RegIS team
• Model application by RegIS team
• But still successful!
Recommendations following RegIS
Included (fully or partially) in RegIS2
 Extreme weather events
 More sectors
 Uncertainty analysis
 Closer integration of user needs
 Twin-track modelling approach
Not included in RegIS2
 National SE scenarios
 “Integrated scenarios” of change
 Continuous responses to changing circumstances
 Risk-based
Rationale behind RegIS2
RegIS1
• Long model run times
• No hard linkages- data ‘pass the parcel’
• >1Gb of model output per run
• Questions identified by RegIS team
• Model application by RegIS team
• But still successful!
RegIS2
• Faster model run times
• All models linked within an interface
• Limited targeted model output
• Questions identified by stakeholders
• Model application by the stakeholders
•…….
Key project objectives
1. To refine the RegIS risk assessment
methodology into a form usable by
Stakeholders;
2. To develop regional scenarios;
3. To identify, with stakeholders, critical impacts,
interactions, adaptive responses, and interface
design;
4. To develop a user friendly software tool,
containing …scenarios,…the metamodels and the
input data needed for Stakeholders to analyse
impacts, interactions and adaptive responses.
Methodological Framework
Based on the DPSIR methodology:
Drivers-Pressure-State-Impacts-Response
Developed for planning sustainable development
Used successfully within the RegIS
Allows facilitate explicit investigation of the
interactions between:
 the driving forces of environmental and
climate change (drivers-pressure);
 the sensitivity of impact indicators (stateimpacts) and;
 stakeholder adaptive strategies
(responses).
DPSIR within RegIS2
Drivers: the underlying exogenous causes of change, e.g.
climate/socio-economic change, national policy.
 qualitative, narrative storylines, e.g. SRES
Pressure: the variables that quantify drivers e.g. regional
population, precipitation, etc.
 regional, quantitative scenarios.
State: variables that represent the sensitivity of the
system to the pressure variables, e.g. river flows etc
 meta-models to derive state variables
Impact: a measure of whether the changes in the state
variables have a negative or positive effect
 derive impact indicators and translate these into
impact classes reflecting value judgements.
Response: planned (societal level) adaptation that acts on
the socio-economic pressure variables
 use REGIS2 interface
REGIS2 IAM
(based on DPSIR)
Drivers
(storylines)
Pressures
(scenarios)
Autonomous
adaptation
(feedbacks)
State
(metamodels)
Impact
(indicators)
Response
(user options)
Planned
adaptation
Simplified representation of RegIS2
DRIVERS PRESSURES
Climate
scenarios
Climate
variables
Sensitivity and
uncertainty analyses
Urban development
patterns
STATE /
IMPACT
High river flows
Coastal
model
Fluvial flood
model
Flooding
Sensitivity,
uncertainty and
adaptive responses
analyses
SES
scenarios
SE
variables
Rural land use
Water resources
Water demand
Water Availability
Biodiversity
RESPONSES
RegIS2 Interface
The intention:
 User friendly
 intuitive
 Robust
 Fast run times
 Allow investigation of adaptive responses,
uncertainty and sensitivity analysis
The reality……….
Interface v2.0
Drivers
State /
Impact
Pressures/
Responses
Example results
Example results
Conclusions
• RegIS represented a significant step in
local IA
• RegIS2 will not do everything!
• RegIS2 will build upon, and improve, on
RegIS
• The RegIS2 tool will (hopefully) be used to
explore our uncertain (climate and socioeconomic) futures
RegIS2: Regional Climate Change
Impact & Response Studies
Dr Ian Holman
Institute of Water and Environment
Cranfield University
Silsoe
Bedford
http://www.silsoe.cranfield.ac.uk/iwe/projects/regis/regis2.htm