Transcript ASTRA - Deviations from common CC impacts

Deviations from common expected CC impacts
The Oder/Odra estuary case study
ASTRA Conference,
26-28 October 2006
Gdansk
Holger Janssen, Gerald Schernewski,
Baltic Sea Research Institute Warnemünde &
EUCC – The Coastal Union Germany
In co-operation with:
ARCADIS Rostock
Staatliches Amt für Umwelt und Natur Rostock
The Oder estuary and river basin
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Characteristics
Economy
•
•
•
•
Traditional branches like agriculture and fisheries in decline
Little industry
Maritime transit traffic (Harbour of Szczecin, Oder/Odra river)
Tourism most important economic sector
Gradients
• Between east and west (German/Polish border)
• Between coast and hinterland
Nature
• Rich and diverse heritage
• Eutrophication and water quality
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Characteristics
Coastal protection/Flooding
• Sinking coast and sea level rise
• Increasing likelihood of extreme floods
Integrated Coastal Zone Management
• One of two national German ICZM case studies of the Federal
Ministry of Education and Research
• Case Study of UNEP-ICARM, LOICZ, UNESCO-IOC and EUCC
– The Coastal Union
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River Coast Interactions
Nationalpark Wolin, Naturpark Stettiner Haff,
Naturpark Usedom, 44 Naturschutzgebiete.....
Ostsee
Swinoujscie
Natura2000
2000areas
Gebiete
Natura
Odermündungsregion
Oder/Odra
estuary region
Stettiner Haff
Ausgewiesen
official
Vorgeschlagen
named
Szczecin
River
OderOder/Odra
Ausgewiesen
official
Vorgeschlagen
named
Warta
POLEN
Poland
DEUTSCHLAND
Germany
a
Legende
By
.
Wroclaw
str
z
Ka
aw
cz
yc
a
Lausitzer
Neiße
Bó b
r
Od
er
Gewässer
Ríver/Channel/Estuary
Fließgewässer
Shoreline
Küstenlinie
Staatsgrenzen
National border
Nysa
Klodzka
TSCHECHEI
Ostrava
after Röttger (2006)
River and estuary contain many
important and mostly protected
ecosystems
The river is the central axis for
migration and spread of species
River Coast Interactions
.
Swinoujscie
Güterumschlag
[t/a]
10 Mio.
2 Mio.
Police
0,5 Mio.
Szczecin
Schwedt
Eberswalde
Hohensaaten
OderSpreeKanal
Germany
DEUTSCHLAND
Kostrzyn
War ta
Frankfurt (Oder)
Eisenhüttenstadt
Poland
POLEN
Lausitzer Neiße
OderHavelKanal
< 0,1 Mio.
Wroclaw
.
Oder/Odra
Opole
.Legende
Küstenlinie
Shoreline
Staatsgrenzen
Border
Schifffahrtsstraße
River transport
Fluss/Kanal
Ríver/Channel
Kanal Gliwicki
KedzierzynKozle
TSCHECHEI
after Röttger (2006)
The River Oder/Odra is an
important traffic axis
The coastal zone is the
gate for commerce, transport
and tourism both with Poland
and city of Berlin
River Coast Interactions
N-load
Stickstofffracht
[t/a]
Pommersche
Bucht
Pomeranian Bay
80.000
70.000
60.000
50.000
Stettiner Haff
40.000
30.000
20.000
10.000
5.000
Run off
DEUTSCHLAND
Germany
Abfluss [m³/s]
(1993 -1997)
Warta
Poland
POLEN
Lausitzer Neiße
600
400
300
200
Bóbr
100
0
Kaczawa
Bystrzyca
.Legende
Küstenlinie
Staatsgrenzen
Zufluss
Messstation
Glatzer Neiße
TSCHECHEI
after Röttger (2006)
The River Oder/Odra is one of the
most important rivers of the Baltic
Sea Region
• Length: 854 km
• Catchment area of 118.000
km² (with more than 15
million inhabitants, intensive
agriculture and a variety of
industries which cause high
nutrient loads in the river)
These loads dominate coastal
waters and cause eutrophication
Step 1: Survey
Expected Climate Change impacts for regions like the
Oder estuary region (southern Baltic Sea coast), based
on former research results and literature (e.g. IPCC
reports, vulnerability studies, etc.)
Rising temperature
Change in precipitation
Rising sea level
Impacts on vegetation, biodiversity, agriculture, health
etc.
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Step 2: Selection of sectors
Selection of regionally important and climate sensitive
sectors (ecological and economical)
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Step 3: Regional climate
Regional climate projections, A1B (2071-2100 / 1961-1990)
• e.g. REMO (by Max Planck Institute for Meteorology / Federal
Environmental Agency)
• e.g. WETTREG (by CEC GmbH)
Temperature
• Summer: Rising temperature about 3°C, slightly higher on the Baltic
Sea
• Winter: Rising temperature about 3,5-3.8°C, nearly no days with
average temperatures under 0°C
Change of precipitation:
• average/year still 550mm
• Summer: - 10-30%, nearly stable conditions on the coastline
• Winter: + 10-20% both in the estuary region and the catchment area
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Step 4: Reg. impact assessment
Step 4: Regional impact assessment for selected sectors, partly
based on ecosystem models like
• for agriculture: ROTHC (Coleman et al., 1997) and IMAGE (biofuel
demand) (IMAGE team, 2001)
• for forestry: GOTILWA+ (Sabaté et al., 2002) and EFISCEN
(Karjalainen et al., 2003)
• for carbon storage: LPJ (Sitch et al., 2003; Thonicke et al., 2001;
Venevsky et al., 2002)
• for water (hydrological): Mac-pdm (Arnell, 1999; Arnell, 2003)
• for conservation: BIOMOD (Thuiller, 2003; Thuiller, 2004)
Involvement of stakeholders to identify relevant indicators
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Step 4: Reg. impact assessment
Agriculture
• Under the condition of dryness
compensated by irrigation or the
cultivation of adapted breeds
agriculture could have stable or
increasing crops yield instead of
expected lessened crops because of
dryness.
• Production costs might rise because
of irrigation which could shatter these
advantages depending on global
market developments.
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Broad extension of vegetation period
(approx. 2-4 days per decade).
Lessened crops on sandy soils possible
(drought).
Loss of soil.
Increased photosynthesis of C3 plants
increases crops if dryness is not limiting
growth.
Decline of fungi and other humidity
dependent pathogens.
Variation of climate from year to year
makes adaptation of breeds difficult.
…
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Step 4: Reg. impact assessment
Fishing industry
• Impacts of Climate Change differ from
species to species. Fishes like cod
with spawn in oxygen-deficient water
layers are more affected than species
with spawn in surface waters.
• A second deviation is the migration of
alien species which will not be started
by Climate Change but is already an
ongoing process that could be pushed
by raising temperatures.
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•
•
•
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Decline of fish and mussel population
because of decreasing oxygen
concentration (freshwater as well as Baltic
Sea). Not all species are affected
comparably by oxygen decrease which
could cause regime shifts.
Due to a rising water temperature single
species will have a reduced reproduction.
Migration of sensitive sea species to north
into cooler and deeper waters.
Warmer waters will enhance the migration
process of alien fish and mussel species.
…
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Step 4: Reg. impact assessment
Forestry
• Drought as an impact of Climate
Change has no general influence on
trees (groundwater level).
• In the Oder/Odra estuary region spruce
is affected by Climate Change while
there is little impact on other trees.
• Also an increasing risk of forest fires is
not anticipated.
• Furthermore higher CO2 concentration
in the atmosphere will increase
photosynthesis but an influence on tree
growth is doubtful.
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•
•
•
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Extension of vegetation period (approx. 24 days per decade).
Replacement of spruce by pine or broadleafed trees.
In principal rising danger of forest fires, no
significant impact expected.
Increasing attacks by pests (e.g. barkbeetles). At dry areas spruce forest
dieback threatens.
…
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Step 4: Reg. impact assessment
Tourism
• As the Oder/Odra estuary is actually
part of moderate climate zone
positive impacts on tourism have
been expected.
• In addition the risk of flooding in the
southern Baltic Sea because of a sea
level rise seems to be controllable
and land loss a minor problem.
• Water quality for bathing will be no
problem concerning coliform
bacteria, algae bloom as an effect of
eutrophication could cause a
negative aspect for tourism.
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Extended bathing season due to warmer
waters in late summer and early autumn
(temperature inertia of water).
Private investments in additional tourist
infrastructure and attractions can be
expected.
Changes in landscape and coastal zone
are probable. E.g. due to sea level rise
and pursuant coastal defence measures.
Public and private investments in
adaptation of tourist infrastructure could
become necessary at the shoreline (as a
result of coastal defence).
Increased risk of algae bloom during
tourism season.
…
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Step 4: Reg. impact assessment
Sea level and coastline
• Sea level rise and erosion are not the only
impacts on the coastline.
• Estuary regions like the Oder/Odra estuary
region where the river basin underlies the
Climate Change impact of precipitation
shift could get under pressure by Coastal
Squeeze, river floods from one side and
sea level rise from another side.
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Step 4: Reg. impact assessment
Coastal Squeeze
Higher precipitation during
wintertime in the river basin
area raises the risk of floods
by the River Oder. Together
with a raised sea level and an
increasing risk of storm tides
the islands Usedom and
Wolin get under pressure
from two sides, the estuary
and the sea side.
River floods transport
freshwater and loads of
nutrient and harmful
substances into the lagoon
and the bay. Impacts on water
quality, eutrophication,
species and algae bloom.
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Step 4: Reg. impact assessment
Vegetation, biodiversity
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Drought as an typical impact of Climate
Change has only limited influence (high
ground water level).
If irrigation is affordable the vegetation will
benefit from extended vegetation periods
and rising photosynthesis.
Internal eutrophication in the Szczecin
Lagoon has serious effects on algae bloom
in coastal waters with influence on beach
tourism.
Impacts on biodiversity in the Oder/Odra
estuary region are limited. All ecosystems
are already subject of strong
anthropogenic influence. Instead of loss of
biodiversity a further increased migration
of alien species will be an impact of
Climate Change.
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Step 4: Reg. impact assessment
Water quality
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Step 4: Reg. impact assessment
2
3
1
25
20
15
10
5
0 899091 899091 899091
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Depth
(m)
6
3
2
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Possible impact of
Climate Change in
the Oder/Odra
estuary:
Internal
eutrophication
0
1
2
3
4
5
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9
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6
1.1
1.3
1.8
2
9.3
9.4
11
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5.8
7.9
7.1
6.5
8.6
Median
concentration of
phosphate [µmol
PO4-P/l] in August
(period
1980-91)
Data:
Gerrman/Polish
6.8
7.7
7.4
Relase of phosphorus
up to 400 t Phosphor
from sediment during
warm summer periods
phosphorus release
from sediment under
anoxic conditions.
measurement programme by
LUNG and WIOSZ
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Data:
LUNG (D) und
WIOSZ (PL)
0.39
0.48
0.42
0.47
Plume of the River Oder/Odra
in the Pomeranian Bay
2.2
2.6
2.2
3
3.2
3.4
3.4
4
4.6
3.3
5.2
Median concentrations of
PO4-P (µmol /l) in June
(period 1980-91)
Siegel et al. 2000
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5.2
21
Loads of the River Oder/Odra
16000
Pt [t/a]
Pdiffus [t/a]
12000
8000 6049 7306
1542715894
13243
12502
10336
8612
8537
?
4000
0
384
196019651970197519801985199019952000
backgr.
116322
106880 113006
101693
94071
90501
90000
75274
66200
60000 50211
120000
Nt [t/a]
Ndiffus [t/a]
?
30000
0
3884
196019651970197519801985199019952000
backgr.
Decline of
intensive algae
blooming during
summer was
observed in the
last decade
How will the
future be (R&D)?
Step 4: Reg. impact assessment
Water quality
• Changed or increased eutrophication
processes are a serious impact of Climate
Change on water quality in the Oder
estuary region.
• Eutrophication due to increased run-off and
swirled up sediments has nearly no effect
in this region (Eisenreich (2005)).
• Internal eutrophication and changes in the
regulatory chain of river-lagoon-bay might
have considerable impacts on the Baltic
Sea and especially on bathing in coastal
and lagoon waters.
• Impacts on algae blooming during tourism
season, impacts on fish reproduction.
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Summary & Conclusions
Regional climate projections contain
uncertainties,
these uncertainties are also part of
vulnerability assessments.
Migration of alien species already
today is a continuous process and
could increase further while the loss
of biodiversity should be limited as
the water supply is secured due to
high ground water.
Reduced nutrient loads of the River
Oder/Odra during summer
(decreased precipitation) should
increase the water quality in the
Szczecin Lagoon and the
Pomeranian Bay.
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Summary & Conclusions
But the effect of internal
eutrophication counteracts this
reduction of nutrient loads.
Impacts of Climate Change (as they
can be anticipated so far) differ from
region to region – e.g. differences
between coast and hinterland.
More research is needed.
Assessment to
• activate stakeholders
• clarify main fields of regional
Climate Change impacts and
interactions
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Thank you!
Holger Janssen, Gerald Schernewski
Seestrasse 15
18119 Rostock
Germany
Fon: ++49 (0)381 5197-207
Fax: ++49 (0)381 5197-440
[email protected]
[email protected]
http://www.ikzm-oder.de
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