Transcript Document

How do futures bear fruit
in the present?
Dr Angela Wilkinson
Futures Director, SSEE
Panellists:
Ms Kristel van der Elst
Professor John Robinson
Mr Ged Davis
Planet Under Pressure 28th March 2012
The Smith School
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Enterprise and
environment agenda
Convening at the nexus
of business,
governments and
academe
Connected challenges
Solutions orientated
Enabling a transformational impact on environmental changes
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www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk
‘Collaborative Futures’ at our core
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Beyond the single future:
predicable or more open plausible and preferable?
Beyond the single
actor
Inertia: change is
hard, transition is
turbulent
Partnerships/
Collaboration
Futures
Many methods – visioning,
scenarios, modelling.....
New space for shared
learning and strategy: the
physical present and virtual
and conceptual futures
Learning to live with
uncertainty
Sustainability
Beyond the single issue
Connected challenges of the
anthropocene
Future orientation
Combining intuition,
imagination and rigorous
analysis
Collaborative futures
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Scenario B
Big Risks
Big Risks
Options
Options
Plan
Projects
EU value creation model
Scenario A
Scenarios and
models and
visioning to inform
realistic pathways
and identify key
milestones
Low Carbon Mobility Futures Programme
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LEARNING BY DOING
FORESIGHT REVIEW
SCIENCE UPDATE
roadmap study update
10 new themes
3 initial pathways
CHANGE
25 case studies
review of change theory
transition mgmt principles
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THREE PARALLEL MODULES
25 major studies
no systemic understanding
identification of big gaps
yping
Protot
PATHFINDER
TOOLKIT &
PLATFORM
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3
Furthe
r anal
ysis
4
5
Orientations
Tracks
Web-enabled
QUANTIFICATION
review of existing models
quantification of pathways
bespoke model development
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INTEGRATED SOLUTIONS
converging &
supporting change agents
pathfinding towards LCM
Learning ‘’with’ futures (not about them)!
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Resource Futures work
at the World Economic Forum
Kristel Van der Elst, Director, Strategic Foresight Team
www.weforum.org/issues/strategic-foresight
Strategic Foresight at the World Economic Forum
Engaging communities in strategic
conversations aimed at UNDERSTANDING AND
ADDRESSING COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN LONGTERM CHALLENGES.
Selected Tools / Methods
Scenarios
Systems thinking
COMMUNITIES SYSTEMIC UNDERSTANDING
Mapping and
challenging
paradigms and
mental models
TRUST MAKING SENSE PLAUSIBLE ALTERNATIVE
Visioning
FUTURES DIVERSITY OF THOUGHT CHALLENGING
MENTAL MODELS PARADIGMS ROBUST DECISIONMAKING TRADE-OFFS COMMON UNDERSTANDING
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Mining & Metals – Scenarios to 2030
Project Objectives
Stimulate strategic dialogue between the public and
private sectors and civil society on the future
sustainability of the global mining and metals sector in
economic, social and environmental terms.
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Mining & Metals – Scenarios to 2030
Project
Achievements
Catalyzed new and systemic insights on the industry’s
most critical sustainability challenges
Created a strengthened community of interest,
emerging from a safe and insightful dialogue space,
through which the major challenges and opportunities,
as illustrated in the scenarios, are further addressed
Individual stakeholders used the learnings to support
their strategic planning in order to promote the
sustainability of the industry
Green Trade Alliance Rebased Globalism
Resource Security
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Political and economic implications of resource scarcity –
Estimates of resource demands in the year 2030 span a large range
Projections range from small decreases in total demand to a near-doubling
Range of percentage change in demand in 2030 from today
There is substantial variation in estimates of resource demand from different assessments
Steen (1998)
80
EIA (high growth)
60
WRG (stable irrigation)
Agrimonde (GO)
40
20
Foresight (pessimistic)
0
World Water Council
WITCH (high abatement)
-20
Smit (2009)
Energy
Food
Phosphorus
Water
Resource
Source: Vivid Economics for World Economic Forum
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Political and economic implications of resource scarcity –
Paradigms on Resource Scarcity
Different framings of potential futures are influencing the
spaces in which one seeks solutions.
Paradigm 1:
“Depletion, absolute scarcity and radical shifts”
“Your paradigm is so
intrinsic to your mental
process that you are
hardly aware of its
existence, until you try to
communicate with
someone with a different
paradigm.”
Paradigm 2:
“Increasing costs, lock-in and economic limits”
Paradigm 3:
“Resource abundance, substitutability and the power of
markets”
Paradigm 4:
- Donella Meadows
“Social injustice, distribution and moral limits”
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Greenest City Conversations
Project
Presentation at
Planet Under
Pressure conference
Mar 28, 2012
John Robinson, UBC
Cross-channel Evaluation
Greenest City Conversations project
Exploring Normative Worlds
GEA as an example
Ged Davis
Co-President
Global Energy Assessment
IIASA Integrated Assessment Framework
GHG Emissions
Industry, Energy, and Land-based Mitigation
Deforestation & Afforestation
(modeled on 0.5 x 0.5)
NAM
PAO
OECD
WEU
EEU
REFS
FSU
MEA
AFR
ALM
LAM
SAS
PAS
ASIA
CPA
Riahi, etRiahi
al. 2007
9 SAS South Asia
1 NAM North America
5 FSU Former Soviet Union
10 PAS Other Pacific Asia
2 LAM Latin America & The Caribbean 6 MEA Middle East & North Africa
11 PAO Pacific OECD
3 WEU Western Europe
7 AFR Sub-Saharan Africa
4 EEU Central & Eastern Europe
8 CPA Centrally Planned Asia & China
#16
2007
Climate
Discounted Energy System Costs
(percent of total GDP)
Security
Pollution
KM17: Riahi et al, 2010
Global Pollution Control Costs
(illustrative scenarios by 2030)
All scenarios fulfill the pollution/health
objective at the stringent level
Climate
Co-benefit
Weak Climate
KM17: Riahi et al, 2010
Intermediate Climate
Stringent Climate
Investments to Achieve High Energy Security Levels (illustrative scenarios
by 2030)
All scenarios fulfill the energy security
objective at the stringent level
Climate
Co-benefit
Weak Climate
KM17: Riahi et al, 2010
Intermediate Climate
Stringent Climate
A (still) emerging field…
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ACTOR
centric
‘Exploratory’ scenarios,
Delphi method, etc.
Visioning and backcasting,
Scenarios-to-strategy, etc.
For CHANGE
(actionable options)
For INQUIRY
(new insights)
Scenarios, plus visioning and
modelling with actionable
options
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Foresight studies e.g. IPCC
scenarios
ISSUE focus
POSTER SESSION
Vulnerability Scenarios and Development Pathways:
Advancing Key Components for Comprehensive Climate
Change Risk and Adaptation Science
Matthias Garschagen & Joern Birkmann
• To date strong focus on bio-geo-physical scenarios for climate change hazards
• However scenarios for societal development, particularly in terms of the implications for
vulnerability and adaptive capacity, are largely lacking
• This is remarkable given that socio-economic development trends at local, sub-national
and global scale are decisive for effective adaptation and risk reduction strategies
• Scenario development for vulnerability and adaptive capacity is helpful and needed
• Integration of different dimensions and scales required
• Mix of methods required
• First experiences and lessons (e.g. from Vietnam)
Source: Garschagen 2011,
Schwab 2011
Current
Hazards
Exposures
Vulnerabilities
Hazards
Exposures
etc.
migration
political (re-) organisation
health care
insurance systems
globalisation / global markets
Future
Source: M. Garschagen
disaster risk management
Adaptation
needs and
options
Expected
changes in
natural
and
socioeconomic
systems
industrialisation
Adaptive Strategies
economic growth
demography
Current
urbanisation
Source: M. Garschagen
risk awareness
accepted level or risk
social / political priorities
lifestyles
disparities
internal monetary flows
Vulnerabilities
ODA
Source: MONRE 2009
influence of civil society
Future
etc.
etc.
Adaptive Capacities
Source: Garschagen & Kraas 2010
Source: Garschagen & Kraas 2010, adopted from Smit & Wandel 2006
[email protected] | [email protected] | +49 228 815 0289 | www.ehs.unu.edu
Multi-scale participatory scenario methods as a tool of local population
empowerment: case studies in Brazilian Amazonia
Aguiar APD, Folhes R, Aguiar D, Araújo, R
Amazon River
PAE Lago Grande
SANTARÉM
PA Moju
Brazilian Amazonia today is a mosaic of distinct territorial units (Indigenous lands,
Conservation units of integral protection and sustainable use, Settlement Projects).
Are they sustainable in the long run?
Multi-scale participatory scenario methods as a tool of local population
empowerment: case studies in Brazilian Amazonia
Aguiar APD, Folhes R, Aguiar D, Araújo, R
Community scale
Territorial Unit scale
(settlement)
Same axis of discussion at both scales
Social organization
Infrastructure
Land use activites
Land conflicts
Participation: local population, settlement leaderships, civil society and local government representatives
Normative scenarios: desired and undesired visions of the future in 2020
Backcasting exercise to construct trajectories
Convergence/divergence analysis between scales
Scenarios and visioning as
complementary tools
Regional multi-stakeholder scenarios process led by CGIAR Climate
Change, Agriculture and Food Security program (CCAFS)
Mixing qualitative and quantitative methods, we combine the
development and use of scenarios in many different key contexts:
•
Scenarios have to continually shift their presentation, become
enriched by responding to use contexts
•
The impacts of scenarios use processes are more defined and
more easily tracked.
•
Scenarios become spaces for continuous shared value creation:
new strategies, policies, insights, relationships and networks.
J.M. Vervoort, P.J. Ericksen, J.S. Ingram, W. Foerch,
M.Chaudhury, P.Thornton, P. Kristjanson
Many different use contexts
Scenarios: what might happen (context)
Visioning: what should happen (actors)
Translation to
different use
contexts
Uncertain
future
Different
perspectives:
different types of
knowledge,
experience
Scenarios
capture
alternative
futures
Improve
scenarios’
usefulness
through
quantification
and media
Create
shared
visions for
regional
future (3)
Different
perspectives:
different
needs,
aspirations
Scenarios enriched
based on use contexts
Back-casting Feasible
through
visions,
scenarios to
robust
explore policies and
pathways to strategies
vision under
uncertainty