Recent trends in GM weather and climate events

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Transcript Recent trends in GM weather and climate events

Building & Infrastructure
Martyn Hulme
Deputy Chair of the AGMA Environment Commission
& Managing Director of Co-operative Estates
Adapting the city
Buildings and infrastructure workshop
EcoCities research summary
Jeremy Carter
Research Fellow, University of Manchester,
School of Environment & Development
Recent trends in GM weather and climate events
Weather/
climate event
Number of recorded
events across GM
(1945-2008)
% of total recorded
events across GM
(1945-2008)
Flood
158
41.9
Storm
85
22.5
Cold
63
16.7
Fog
28
7.4
Heat
22
5.8
Drought
8
2.1
Air Quality
7
1.9
Smog
6
1.7
Consequences of weather/climate events in GM
Receptor type
Total number of
recorded consequences
(1945-2008)
% of total recorded
consequences
(1945-2008)
Critical infrastructure
155
37.5%
Health and wellbeing
128
31%
Natural environment
56
13.6%
Built environment
54
13.1%
Social and emergency
infrastructure
20
4.8%
Critical infrastructure and the built environment in GM
Weather/
climate event
Critical infrastructure
(1945-2008)
Built environment
(1945-2008)
Number of
events
% of total
events
Number of
events
% of total
events
Floods
61
39.5
18
33.3
Storms
25
16.1
30
55.6
Cold
39
25.2
3
5.7
Fog
16
10.3
0
0
Heat
8
5.2
3
5.7
Drought
6
3.9
0
0
Susceptibility of GM infrastructure to flood risk
• 7% of hazardous substance
instillations in flood zone 3
• 6% of motorway junctions in
flood zone 3
• 5% of fire stations in flood zone 3
• 2.4% educational establishments
in flood zone 3
The EcoCities Spatial Portal
Mapping flood zones 2 and 3, and
educational establishments.
Mapping the urban heat island and
residential care homes.
Weather/climate
event
Projections for Greater Manchester
Fluvial floods (inc.
more winter rainfall)
Increasing: Increase in winter rainfall and extreme rainfall
events.
Pluvial floods (inc.
more winter rainfall)
Increasing: Increase in winter rainfall and extreme rainfall
events.
Storms (inc. high
winds)
Variable: Possible fall in summer storms. Possible rise in winter
gales. More wind storms.
Cold events
Decreasing: Winter temps increasing. Winter night time
minimum temps increasing.
Heat waves (inc.
higher temps)
Increasing: Increasing summer temps. Higher summer night
time and warmest summer day temps.
Air quality (inc. smog) Decreasing: Fewer blocking anticyclones under some metrics
Drought (inc. fall in
summer rainfall)
Increasing: Fall in summer rainfall. Increase in summer temp.
Weather/
climate event
projections
Implications for critical
infrastructure
Implications for the built
environment
- Internal and external building
Fluvial floods (inc - Damage to infrastructure
more winter
damage
- Service disruption
rainfall)
Increasing
- Silting/overtopping of reservoirs - Risk of slope instability
- Landslips on road/rail networks
- Damage to bridges
Pluvial floods (inc - Damage to infrastructures
more winter
- Service disruption
rainfall)
Increasing
- Treatment of polluted runoff
- Urban drainage capacity
pressure
- Internal and external building
damage
- Increased damp risk in buildings
Weather/
climate event
projections
Implications for critical
infrastructure
Implications for the built
environment
Heat waves (inc
higher
temperature)
Increasing
- Higher energy demand for
cooling
- Soil shrinkage and subsidence
Drought (inc less
summer rainfall)
Increasing
- Water supply constraints
- Higher rates of deterioration of
concrete
- Risk of rails buckling and roads
deteriorating
- Internal overheating of some
buildings
- Less water for cooling power
stations
- Impact on water utility
planning and processes
- Soil shrinkage and subsidence
- Soil shrinkage and subsidence
- Less water for building
maintenance
Human comfort in office buildings
• Productivity and health of workers are associated
with thermal comfort in offices
• Level of control over temperature and ventilation
in offices is crucial for employees’ comfort, health
and productivity.
• Landlord regarded as responsible for physical
building changes, tenants for adjusting
behaviour.
• Behavioural adaptation measures affected by
common reliance on air conditioning and the
variability of tenant companies.
This study used Arup Appraise data
Urban green/blue infrastructure
Artificial wetland
Benefits of green infrastructure
• Reduced surface runoff
• Moderating air temperatures
• Improving air quality
• Protecting and enhancing biodiversity
• Providing recreation space
• Reducing carbon emissions
Green roof
Flood detention basin
Oxford Road: green infrastructure scenarios
High development
4% green space
45
Deep green
34% green space
Maximum surface temperature (°C)
Business as usual
15% green space
High
development
= +5ºC
43
41
39
37
Business
as usual
35
33
31
Deep green
= -6ºC
29
27
25
1961-1990
Current
situation
Business as
usual
Deep green
High
development
Development scenarios for 2050s high
emissions scenario
~21% green space will maintain
surface temperatures at baseline
Greater Manchester – future land use scenarios
Long descent scenario 2050
Upward Spiral scenario 2050
Summary
• Weather/climate risks to buildings and infrastructure are evolving
• Today’s developments will be operating in a different climate regime
in the future
• New developments need to be resilient to future climate change
• Adaptation needs to mix physical and behavioural responses
• Green and blue infrastructure is a valuable adaptation response
• Climate change projections should ideally be considered alongside
socio-economic projections.
Acknowledgements
Many thanks to Bruntwood and the Oglesby Charitable Trust
for their generous support of the EcoCities programme.
The research support and assistance of the EcoCities team in
developing the content for this presentation is much appreciated.
Particular thanks go to:
Gina Cavan
Angela Connelly
John Handley
Simon Guy
Aleksandra Kazmierczak
Principal sources of data
Carter, J. G. and Lawson, N. (2011). Looking back and projecting forwards: Greater
Manchester’s weather and climate. EcoCities, The University of Manchester.
Carter, J. G. (2012). Land use change scenarios for Greater Manchester: analysis
and implications for climate change adaptation. EcoCities project, University of
Manchester.
Cavan, G. and Kazmierczak, A. (2011). Urban greening to adapt urban areas to
climate change: Oxford Road Corridor case study. EcoCities, The University of
Manchester.
Kazmierczak, A., and Kenny, C. (2011). Risk of flooding to infrastructure in Greater
Manchester. EcoCities, The University of Manchester.
Kazmierczak, A. and Connelly, A. (2012). Adaptation to weather and climate in office
buildings in Manchester. EcoCities, The University of Manchester.
Adapting the city
Building & Infrastructure
Mike Kay
Network Strategic Director, Electricity North West
Building & Infrastructure
Mike Kay
Network Strategic Director, Electricity North West
The challenge for the wires
• Decarbonization of generation, of space heating,
and of transport
• Managing more extreme weather
– flooding and wind storms
• Increase in average temperatures
Electricity North West
We serve only the North West of
England and we are based here
We serve approximately 5 million
people at 2.4 million domestic and
industrial locations
£9bn of Network Assets
58,000km of cable
96 bulk supply substations
363 primary substations
34,000 transforming points
Carbon
A doubling of electricity usage by 2050?
Smart grids; smart meters – smart cities
Electric Vehicles
Innovation – Capacity to Customers (C2C) to reduce
the new build capacity needed; make it available
quickly and without digging up the streets
The weather
Electricity North West is defending its critical infrastructure
Significant investment in flood defences
Ambient temperature
Any rise in temperature is bad for electricity networks
Load growth is a much bigger effect, and ambient temperature
rise will be accommodated in our changes overall
http://www.enwl.co.uk
Adapting the city
Water Infrastructure & Climate Change
Chris Matthews
Head of Sustainability, United Utilities
Presentation Overview
• About United Utilities
• What climate change means for water and wastewater service
provision and why this is a business imperative
• Our response – water supply
• Our response – wastewater service
• Engaging with stakeholders – how we all need to work together
About United Utilities
• Operations in the north west of England
• 7 million customers
• 57,000 hectares of catchment land
• Over 40,000 km of distribution mains,
supplying 1950Ml/day water
• Over 72,000km of sewers, 582
Wastewater Treatment Works
Adaptation and water supply
• 2035 estimate is a reduction in available supply of some 10% or
around 180 million litres of water every day
• A combination of less yield and greater customer demand
• Intense rainfall may increase raw water colour increasing
treatment costs
• Flooding on water treatment facilities, interruption to service
Adaptation and wastewater service provision
• Increased incidences of flooding of homes
• Flooding on wastewater treatment facilities, interruption to service
• Water courses could have a lower dissolved oxygen content leading to tighter discharge consent
standards to maintain water quality standards
• Potential for odour generation in warmer conditions and risk of causing nuisance to customers
• Impact on sludge as prolonged wet periods may restrict sludge to land recycling route
• Warmer weather may have a positive effect on biological treatment processes, which operate more
effectively at higher temperatures
Our response – the process
• Adaptation integrated into our Strategic Direction
Statement, company policies and strategies to
develop optimised long-term asset management
plans for the next 25 years. The plans provide the
foundation for assessing the specific actions
required to adapt to climate change risks over the
planning horizon and beyond.
• Climate change data (UKCIP) and assessment of
risk is used in the development of company
strategies, whilst climate change is accounted for in
design, construction and operational activities.
Our response – water supply
• Water Resources Management Plan
• Reduce demand for water (leakage control
and customer efficiency)
• Increase supply of water (small scale new
groundwater resource development and
greater network integration)
• 55 km West-East pipeline to link Lake
District and Welsh sources and enable water
to be moved to those areas most affected by
climate change especially during drought period
• £1.6m investment to manage flood risk at key assets and catchment
land investment
• All in a way that is good value for customers and is sustainable
Our response – wastewater service
•
Increased volumes of storm water exceed sewer capacity
and cause customer flooding.
• Upsizing priority sections of sewer together with
protecting customers’ property
• Improving models of the sewer network
• Engaging with local authorities and the EA on development
of Surface Water Management Plans
• On-going planning to protect wastewater treatment works
at risk from flooding
• Increasing emphasis on demand management approaches
• Sustainable drainage systems (SUDS) analysis
•
Building our way out of the problem on its own will not work and we already have a policy
NOT to routinely upsize the sewer network
•
Working with our customers to determine the level of service/protection that they want/can pay for
Engaging with stakeholders
• Engagement to understand stakeholder priorities and preferences
• Taken into account within our strategic asset planning process.
• Flooding from the sewerage system a symptom of more widespread
problems in an entire drainage system which will often require actions
from other stakeholders as well as United Utilities.
• Support the adoption of a joined-up approach to drainage
management based on the principles of integrated drainage as
outlined in Making Space for Water (Defra, 2005), Future Water
(Defra, 2008), the Pitt Review (Sir Michael Pitt, 2008) and Flood and
Water Management Act (2010).
Key messages
• Sustainable adaptation to climate change will involve partnership
working and behavioural change. We expect the proportion of this
type of work to increase as conventional solutions become
unsustainable.
• Climate change risks to our Water Service are well catered for in our
existing business plans and statutory documents. We already plan for
climate variability in our 25 year business planning horizon.
• There are some long-term risks to our Wastewater Service from
climate change. Current methods to manage these risks are
unsustainable and innovation is needed to manage the issues in the
long term.
Adapting the city
Building & Infrastructure
David Hytch
Information Systems Director,
Transport for Greater Manchester
Transport and Climate Change
• Transport in GM is responsible for 4m tons of CO2
• We recognise the problem
• Now to do something about it
•
Adapting
•
Mitigating
•
Business Continuity
Transport Adapting
Energy
• Green Sourced
• Managed
• Re-useable
Design & Build
• Educate
• BREEAM
• Materials
Transport Mitigation
New and existing infrastructure
• Metrolink
• 5 million fewer car journeys
• Cycling
• Walking
• Roads
• Bus
• Travel Planning
• Freight
• Smart Ticketing
• Cars
• Park & Ride
• Rail
Transport Approach
• Change Behaviour
• Deliver best in class
• Carbon footprint emissions
Transport and Climate Change
Bus
- Hybrid Bus
- Cross City Bus
- Oxford Road Corridor
- LSM busway
Route
- Northern Hub
- HS2 – not speed but capacity local & regional
Transport and Climate Mitigation
Road
-
Predictive Traffic Management
-
Measurement Freight & Bus
-
Incident Management
-
Adaptive signal control
-
Evidence:
-
Eco driving 15%
-
Adaptive cruise control 3-10%
-
Satnav improvements 15%
-
Speed management 20%
-
Adaptive signalling 20%
Transport interventions
Bus
Hybrid Bus
Cross city Bus including Oxford Road Corridor
LSM Busway
Rail
Northern Hub
Electrification
HS2 – not speed but capacity
Transport Interventions
The Informed Traveller
Smart ticketing
Mobile Apps
Trip Planners at home and on the move
In journey updates
Real time is too late
THANK YOU
David Hytch
[email protected]
0161 244 1023
Adapting the city
Building & Infrastructure
Iain Grant
Buildings Management Director, Bruntwood
Building Retrofit
C40 Cities
The Key Issues
• For property owners; the preservation of
asset value and ensuring that buildings are
fit for purpose;
• For occupiers; ensuring that staff
productivity is not impaired and where
possible enhanced
• How do we measure our success
• Adaptation is a here and now issue
The Importance of Time (aka The Commercial Imperative)
Includes the differences between
• Strategy and tangible
implementation
• Short term mitigation and long term
adaptation
• Time horizon over which our
investment plans are predicated
Building Retrofit – the key challenges ?
From 37% of UK emissions in 2009 to zero by 2050;
principally from the existing building stock
Heritage buildings
How do we choose which buildings
to adapt and what happens to those
that we reject ?
Funding
VRF Market
Market Volumes
Kw Cooling Capacity
Installed VRF in Use
VRF Market
Growth of Heat Recovery systems
Cooling
only
12%
Heat
Pump
40%
Heat
Recovery
27%
73%
48%
2000
2011
Why?
• Flexibility
• Efficiency
• Cost
How do we fund ?
Has to be sustainable
Stand alone adaptation doesn’t work financially,
build in to current investment plans
Inclusive rents may be the solution (Green Deal et al)
Ultimately a move away from P & L funded costs to
balance sheet investment
The Opportunities
GM wide strategy
We have a GM wide
Governance Structure
Technology exists today
Large number of organisations keen to become
involved, but haven't yet built an effective coalition for change
Adapting the city
Building & Infrastructure
John Lorimer
Capital Programme Director,
Manchester City Council
Public Sector Building
Retrofit Case Study
Thank You
Adapting the city
Building & Infrastructure
Dr Tim Whitley
Associate Director, Arup
Sustainable Building Retrofit
Adaptation and Mitigation
Climate Change Impacts
Lack of resilience
High energy bills
Summer overheating
Customer discomfort
9.0
6 OC
9.67
OC
10.1
OC
Adaptation vs Mitigation and Retrofit
Mitigation
Adaptation
Reduce energy use
Increased summer temperatures
Reduce water use
Increased flood risk
Lower carbon footprint
More extreme weather events
Challenge
Potential increased cooling to cope with increased
summer temperatures vs reducing energy use
Bruntwood– Adaptation and Mitigation
Three packages
Two categories
1. Behavioural
1. Suite related (impact on
customers’ electricity bills)
2.Fabric
3.Services
2.Building related (impact on
service charge energy costs)
Cost-benefit Analysis
Key Intervention examples
Envelope and environmental system strategy
High performance glazing
Solar shading through glazing and blinds
Insulation to roof and spandrel panels
Expose soffits for passive/night time cooling
Install high efficiency ventilation and conditioning systems
Maximise daylight opportunities
Cooling Loads
Façade Mitigation and Adaptation
BCO Guide
2m
Clear double glazing +
internal blind
1m
0.5m
Occupants
Machines
.5
2m
1m
3m
3m
Continuous
glazing
4m
Blind in
ventilated cavity
Spare
Lighting
4m
3m
2m
.
5
20
40
60
1m
High performance 66/34 glazing +
internal blind
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Total Cooling W/m2
(perimeter areas)
Key Intervention examples
Control & monitoring systems
Enhanced BMS, increased controls, smaller zones
Lighting control zones, low energy lighting
Extensive sub-metering and real time displays
Comprehensive behaviour change strategy
Prompt energy conscious behaviour change
Overall Building Carbon savings
Remaining
Customer Saving
Landlord Saving
40-50%
Savings
Adapting the city
Building & Infrastructure
Martyn Hulme
Deputy Chair of the AGMA Environment Commission
& Managing Director of Co-operative Estates
Adapting the city