Transcript meeting the challenges of adaptation - VAHAVA project

First steps towards adaptation strategy
VAHAVA project
A Hungarian case study
Prof. Zsolt Harnos
Corvinus University of Budapest
„Adaptation to the Consequences of Climate Change
Process: progress achieved and capacity
building needed”
REC Workshop
Budapest
19-2 November, 2007
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Climate change presents a double challenge today
The battle is fought on two fronts:
• the moderation of the (presumable) producing
cause i.e. the reducing of emission of green house
gases (mitigation)
• the protection against the effects of climate
change i.e. preparation of adaptation strategy
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"We need to fight the battle against climate change
on two fronts," Dimas said. "We must sharply
reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to prevent
future climate change from reaching dangerous
levels, but at the same time Europe must also adapt
to the climate change that is already happening."
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In the field of mitigation Hungary is in a relative
advantageous situation. Emission Reduction
Commitment of Hungary under Kyoto Protocol
Base year
(1985-1987)
Kyoto
Protocol
target
2005 emission
123.0 mt
-6%
80.5
Change
base year – 2005
-34.5%
Annual European Community greenhouse gas inventory 1990-2005
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The climate change is inevitable in this century,
independently on the global mitigation efforts.
The question is its degree.
The adaptation has therefore become an
unavoidable complement to the mitigation.
It is not an alternative to reduce GHG emissions.
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Over the last three decades climate change has already had
a marked influence on many physical and biological systems
worldwide:
• Water: Climate change will further reduce access to safe
drinking water. Drought-affected areas are likely to
increase.
• Ecosystems and biodiversity: Approximately 20 – 30 % of
plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at
increased risk of extinction if increases in global average
temperature exceed 1.5 – 2.5°C.
• Food: Climate change is expected to increase the risk of
famine; the additional number of people at risk could rise
to several hundred millions.
• Health: Climate change will have direct and indirect
impacts on human and animal health.
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The climate change already happening, societies
worldwide face the parallel challenge of having to
adapt to its impacts as a certain degree of climate
change is inevitable throughout this century and
beyond, even if global mitigation efforts over the
next decades prove successful.
Some examples:
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Flooding
• Between 1975 and 2001m 238 flood events were recorded
in Europe. Over this period the annual number of flood
events clearly increased.
• Climate change is likely to increase the frequency of
extreme flood events in Europe
• The annual losses caused by flood increased significantly.
Note: Flood events include flash floods, river floods
and storm surges in Europe (1976-2001)
Source: VHO, 2003a
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2003 lake Balaton
2005 Duna river at Budapest
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Heat waves
Data-Source: IVS, WHO, …
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The most vulnerable areas in Europe are
• Southern Europe and the entire Mediterranean Basin due
to the combined effect of high temperature increases and
reduced precipitation in areas already coping with water
scarcity.
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What we can expect in Hungary?
Hungary situated in one of the most
vulnerable areas in Europe.
• an increase in temperature (2-5 C) by 2100,
• changes in precipitation patterns,
• a likely increase in frequency of intense
precipitation events in Central Europe,
• increased risk of drought in southern
Europe,
• increase in extreme weather events.
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In Hungary harmful impacts and financial
expenditure of hazard management due to
unfavourable meteorological extremities
range between 150-180 billion HUF(600-800
million EUR). This is almost 1% of the
national GDP.
The loss of agriculture will probably be higher
than the 1% of the GDP in 2007.
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The Hungarian scientists led by Prof István
Láng had recognized the danger years ago
and launched a research project regarding to
the nature of climate change and its possible
impacts on the Hungarian economy, society
and environment.
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A research project was organized in 2003 titled
VAHAVA Changing (VÁltozás) Impact (HAtás)
Response (VÁlaszadás) supported by the
Ministry of Environment and Water and the
Hungarian Academy of Sciences
The main scopes of the research programme is
•adaptation and
•response to climate change impacts.
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The main objective of the VAHAVA project
can been summarised in two points:
• Preparation of the Hungarian society and
economy for a probably warmer and drier
future;
• Creation of a last responding technical,
financial, organisational system, which is
able to prevent, or handle the damaging
effects of foreseen, or unexpected extreme
weather events.
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VAHAVA is a multi-sectoral project
covering almost all main fields of economic
and social sectors; e.g. nature conservation,
agriculture, energetics, environmental
health etc.
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The basic hypothesis of the VAHAVA
• warming becomes stronger in the Carpathian
Basin,
• decrease of annual average precipitation,
• increase of the frequency and intensity of extreme
weather events.
The recent tendencies prove this hypothesis.
• 2007 is the warmest and driest year since the end
of XIXth century,
• dry and warm winter
• spring freeze,
• long heat wave, record heat,
• storms etc.
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The main characteristics of VAHAVA
methodology:
• large scale system synthesis,
• interdisciplinary and multisectoral
approach,
• broad spectrum partnership relations,
Over for hundred researchers and other
experts participated in the implementation of
the project.
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Conclusion and recommendations of
VAHAVA
Instead of inactive waiting for thing to
happen on must take actions for
preparedness and prevention.
Urgent actions
International and national cooperation in all
levels.
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In order to implement a sound climate-policy and for
getting prepared to the changes of the climate
there is a need for achieving consensus in the
following three matters:
• Political consensus in the co-operation of the
political forces of the Parliament;
• Professional consensus in the agreement of the
experts of various fields in the most urgent tasks to
be implemented.
• Social consensus, namely, the recognition of the
fact that the timely preparedness to face the
changes of the climate is a common interest of the
entire population, both locally and nationally. 21
The responses to impacts and the solutions can be
achieved in sequential manner, taking the
interdependencies of mitigation and adaptation
also into consideration:
• Getting prepared (making the population
prepared, in their soul and in their knowledge for
self-organization and spontaneous action);
• Prevention of damages (provision of an inventory
of possible and urgently needed preventive actions
and their conditions);
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• Defence (assurance of rapid, professional and
effective reaction to events that take place,
mobilization of reserves, action of catastropheprevention forces);
• Remediation (provision for the rapid elimination
of damages with special regard to those affecting
the health of people and the infrastructures,
establishment of relevant insurance systems,
financial and other reserves and conditions).
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Upgrading of the national systems of natural
hazard management and of insurance.
In the field of catastrophe prevention the
protection and reconstruction of the
infrastructure has a critical role.
The proposals deal with the necessary steps
for the modernization of forecasting, logistic
and technical facilities.
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The most highlighted recommendations for decision
makers launched by VAHAVA”:
1. Establishment of national climate policy
integrated to present social, economic and
environmental policies (mitigation and
adaptation).
2. Attempts for political decision: a National
Strategy on Climate Change approved by the
Parliament of Hungary.
3. Establishment of National Hazard Management
Fund with both government and public
participation integrating assurance activities.
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4. Education, extension and training issues that
enable the population to prevent, or handle
the damaging effects of foreseen, or
unexpected extreme weather events.
5. Priorities in funding of scientific research and
development regarding the field of climate
change and meteorological phenomena.
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The project is engaged in the further
reduction of greenhouse gases. Hungary has
already been completed the requirement of
Kyoto Protocol, however further efforts are
needed for the future.
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VAHAVA was finished in 2006.
The Ministry of Environment and Water
prepares the National Climate Change
Strategy (NÉS). It includes mitigation and
adaptation both.
It is going to be discussed by the
Hungarian Parliament in 2008.
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The main results of the VAHAVA are summarised in
and the VAHAVA report
It will be published in English.
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Thank you for your attention!
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