Transcript Professor Zsolt Harnos academician

Adaptation to Climate Change:
National and European Research Projects
Zsolt Harnos
Hungarian Academy of Sciences
Climate change: challenge for training of applied scientists
Fact and fictions
Symposium and Training Course
Martonvásár
27th October 2008
Outline
• Some findings of the Green Paper
• Some consequences of CC in Hungary
• Research Projects
• CLIVARA
• VAHAVA
• Climate change: environment – risk – society
• ADAM
• Climate change and agriculture
• modelling work
• some results
2
Climate change presents a double challenge today.
First, severe climate change impacts can only be
prevented by early, deep cuts of greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions. Swift transition to a global lowcarbon economy is therefore the central pillar of
the EU’s integrated climate change and energy
policy in order to reach the EU’s objective of
keeping global average temperature increase below
2°C compared to pre-industrial levels. Beyond
2°C change, the risk of dangerous and
unpredictable climate change increases
significantly and costs of adaptation escalate. That
is why mitigation is such an imperative for the
global community.
3
Second, with climate change already happening,
societies worldwide face the parallel challenge of
having to adapt to its impacts as a certain degree
of climate change is inevitable throughout this
century and beyond, even if global mitigation
efforts over the next decades prove successful.
While adaptation action has therefore become an
unavoidable and indispensable complement to
mitigation action, it is not an alternative to
reducing GHG emissions.
4
"We need to fight the battle against climate change
on two fronts," Dimas said. "We must sharply
reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to prevent
future climate change from reaching dangerous
levels, but at the same time Europe must also adapt
to the climate change that is already happening."
„Unless the EU and its member states plan a
coherent policy response in advance, we could be
forced into taking sudden, unplanned adaptation
measures to react to increasingly frequent crises and
disasters. This would prove far more costly”, he
warned.
5
EU Climate Change Policies following the European Council
of March 2007
• A unilateral EU target to cut greenhouse gases by at least
20 % by 2020 compared with 1990 levels.
• A conditional EU target of a 30% reduction in greenhouse
gas emissions by 2020 compared to 1990.
• Beyond 2020, developed countries should be aiming at
collective cuts in emissions of 60-80 % by 2050 compared
to 1990 levels.
• A binding target of a 20 % share of renewable energies in
overall EU energy consumption by 2020.
• By 2020, all member states must achieve a 10 % minimum
binding target for the share of biofuels in overall EU
transport fuel consumption.
• A non-binding commitment to reduce the EU's energy
consumption by 20% compared to projections for 2020
through improvements in energy efficiency.
6
EU Environment
Commisionner Stavros
Dimas
Environment Commissioner
Stavros Dimas said, "People all
over Europe will increasingly feel
the threatening effects of climate
change on their health, jobs and
housing, and the most vulnerable
members of society will be the
hardest hit."
(Photo courtesy European
Commision)
7
Over the last three decades climate change has already had
a marked influence on many physical and biological systems
worldwide:
• Water: Climate change will further reduce access to safe
drinking water. Drought-affected areas are likely to
increase.
• Ecosystems and biodiversity: Approximately 20 – 30 % of
plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at
increased risk of extinction if increases in global average
temperature exceed 1.5 – 2.5°C.
• Food: Climate change is expected to increase the risk of
famine; the additional number of people at risk could rise
to several hundred millions.
• Health: Climate change will have direct and indirect
impacts on human and animal health.
8
The Green Paper sets out four lines of priority
actions to be considered:
1. Early action to develop adaptation strategies in
areas where current knowledge is sufficient
2. Integrating global adaptation needs into the EU's
external relations and building a new alliance with
partners around the world
3. Filling knowledge gaps on adaptation through EUlevel research and exchange of information
4. Setting up a European advisory group on
adaptation to climate change to analyze
coordinated strategies and actions
9
When to adapt?
Early action will bring clear economic benefits by
anticipating potential damages and minimizing
threats to ecosystems, human health, economic
development, property and infrastructure.
Furthermore competitive advantages could be
gained for European companies that are leading in
adaptation strategies and technologies.
10
What can we expect in Hungary?
• warming becomes stronger in the Carpathian Basin
• decrease of annual average precipitation;
• increase of the frequency and intensity of extreme weather
events.
The recent tendencies prove this hypothesis.
• 2007 is the warmest and driest year since the end of XIXth
century
The average temperature was 2.6 C higher than the long
term average.
• a lot of extreme events of 2007(storms, ice rain, spring froze
etc.)
• long heat wave, record heat
11
Hydrology and water resources
Hungary located in Carpathian basin and the
catchments area is outside of borders
The problems are:
• variable water levels of rivers flood,
• level of soil water,
• water level of lakes,
• irrigation etc.
Between 2000 and 2003 the water level of Balaton
decreased by 70 cm, in consequence of it the tourism
is driven back.
12
2003 lake Balaton
2005 Duna river at Budapest
13
Mátrakeresztes 18.05.2005.
14
Heat waves
• More than 20,000 excess deaths in Western and
Southern Europe in the summer of 2003.
• More than 600 deaths in Hungary in July of 2007.
• The number of excess deaths due to heat is projected to
increase in the future
15
Data-Source: IVS, WHO, …
Climate change contributes to forest fires
18 billion HUF loss in the forests in Hungary in
2007
16
Big storms in Europe
The losses are some 35 billionEURO since 1970.
Some very serious storms have been in Hungary during
the last years, e.g. 20 th August of 2006 and 2007
Source: Sigma Database, Swiss Re
17
In Hungary harmful impacts and financial
expenditure of hazard management due to
unfavourable meteorological extremities range
between 150-180 billion HUF(600-800 million EUR).
This is almost 1% of the national GDP.
Likely the loss of agriculture will be higher than the
1% of the GDP in 2007.
18
CLIVARA project 1995 – 2000
led by Martin Parry, ECU Oxford University
19
Production change of winter wheat by CLIVARA project
20
A research project was organized in 2003 titled
VAHAVA Changing (VÁltozás) Impact (HAtás)
Response (VÁlaszadás) supported by the Ministry of
Environment and Water and the Hungarian Academy
of Sciences
The main scopes of the research program are
– adaptation and
– response to climate change impacts.
21
The main objective of the VAHAVA project
can been summarised in two points:
• Preparation of the Hungarian society and
economy for a probably warmer and drier
future;
• Creation of a last responding technical,
financial, organisational system, which is
able to prevent, or handle the damaging
effects of foreseen, or unexpected extreme
weather events.
22
VAHAVA was finished in 2006.
The Ministry of Environment and Water
elaborated the National Climate Change
Strategy (NÉS). It includes mitigation and
adaptation both.
The Parliament of Hungary accepted it in
March, 2008.
23
The three pillar of the NÉS
• mitigation,
• adaptation,
• preparation of the Hungarian society for the
climate change.
24
In 2006 a new research project started.
Climatic change: environment – risk – society
(VAHAVA II) led by the Corvinus University of Budapest.
The project supported by the National Office for Research
and Technology (NKTH)
The Members of the consortium:
• Szent István University
• Eötvös Loránd University
• Budapest University of Technology and Economics
• Research Institute for Soil Science and Agricultural
Chemistry of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences
• Agricultural Research Institute of the Hungarian Academy
of Sciences
• The National Directorate General for Disaster Management
25
The main aims: research and innovation
development.
Research areas:
• regional climate modelling
• agricultural production
• agrotechnique
• land use
• risk analysis
• catastrophe management
26
27
International research project ADAM ADaptation And Mitigation Strategies:
supporting European climate policy led by
Mike Hulme, Tyndall Centre UK, Norwich .
The participants – 15 countries
– 24 institutes
Duration: 2006 – 2009
28
Core ADAM Objectives
• To assess the extent to which existing and evolving EU (and
world) mitigation and adaptation policies can achieve a tolerable
transition to a world with a global climate no warmer than 2C
above pre-industrial levels, and to identify their associated costs
and effectiveness.
• To develop and appraise a portfolio of longer term policy
options that could contribute to addressing shortfalls both
between existing mitigation policies and the achievement of the
EU’s 2C target, and between existing adaptation policy
development and EU goals and targets for adaptation.
• To develop a novel Policy-options Appraisal Framework and
apply it both to existing and evolving climate policies, and to
new, long-term policy options in the following four case studies:
European and international climate protection strategy in post2012 Kyoto negotiations; a re-structuring of International
Development Assistance; the EU electricity sector; and regional
29
spatial planning.
The main task of Hungarian Group is preparing a
case study on the Tisza river basin .
In the frame of this project the possible impacts of
climate change on
• environment,
• economy (mainly agriculture, land use),
• society
will be analysed.
30
Climate change and agriculture
Climate change can be investigated from two
aspects:
• it is a continuous, linear and slow change of
mean temperature and precipitation;
• it is a nonlinear change with more frequent
and serious anomalies.
31
• The crop development is accelerated by the higher temperature
assuming no nutrient and water stress. Much higher
temperature than optimal, however, can danger the crop
growing and survive.
• High temperature increases evapotranspiration which can
rapidly dry up the soil.
• Increasing CO2 concentration has a positive effect to the
biomass accumulation.
• Water use in agriculture is expected to be much more expensive
and so strictly limited because of increasing private and
industrial water use under warmer temperature conditions.
• Soil productivity is also expected to be changed because organic
matter brakes down more intensively at high temperature.
• Warming up has a positive effect on the reproduction and
winter mortality rate of pests which makes the invasion easier.
Thus, the protection against pests becomes more expensive. 32
IPCC prognosis: potential cereal production
33
Considering the second (changeable) type of
climate change we can establish that
anomalies make the production uncertain,
extreme events can cause catastrophes which
have serious social and economic effects.
Some kinds of extreme situations (drought,
flood, inland water, wind storm) were
observed in Hungary, too. The analysis of
these events and the elaboration of an
adaptation strategy are the main points of the
investigations.
34
Climate change: environment – risk – society
Some results from the agricultural modelling
The scope of the research:
• crop modelling,
• risk analysis,
• adaptation strategy.
35
Main steps of modelling work
• setting up the information system
• soil
• hydrology
• meteorology
• productivity
• climate scenarios
36
• determination of crop productivity
depending on the changing environmental
parameters
• risk analysis
• model building, determination of model
restriction conditions depending on the
social, energetical, demand etc. conditions
• model calculations
37
Model structure
38
Some findings
The expectable consequences of climatic
changes are:
• the existing agricultural zones would be
pushed further north,
• the arid nature of climate would strengthen,
which would bring along with it increased
risk for cultivation.
39
Analogue regions for the future
2011-2040 A1FI
2041-2070 A1FI
2011-2040 B1
2041-2070 B1
40
April – September precipitation (mm)
2015 A2
2030 A2
2045 A2
2015 B2
2045 B2
2060 A2
2030 B2
2060 B2
41
April – September effective temperature sum (C, Tb = 10C)
2015 A2
2030 A2
2045 A2
2015 B2
2045 B2
2060 A2
2030 B2
2060 B2
42
Aridity index (C/mm)
Apr. – Sept. effective temp. sum / yearly precipitation
2015 A2
2030 A2
2045 A2
2015 B2
2045 B2
2060 A2
2030 B2
2060 B2
43
Komárom-Esztergom county
Maize
April-September
effective temperature
sum
April-September
precipitation
yield
prognosis
A dry – cold
1275
300
6.3
B dry – warm
1450
250
6.3
C wet – cold
1150
425
7.4
D wet – warm
1425
425
8.2
1970
1288
325
1985
1298
326
2000
1418
1442
334
330
2015
1535
1617
303
234
2030
1600
1718
294
278
2045
1767
1873
287
271
2060
2001
2053
266
253
2075
2193
2161
243
234
44
1986-2015
(2000)
700
600
Ward Method
1
2
3
Clusters for 30 years periods
4
P
500
400
300
200
100
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
2250
2500
H
2016-2045
(2030)
700
600
Ward Method
700
1946-2075
(2060)
1
600
2
Ward Method
1
2
3
3
4
500
4
P
P
500
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
750
750
1000
1250
1500
H
1750
2000
2250
1000
1250
1500
2500
H
1750
2000
2250
2500
45
Simulation modelling – Clivara project
AFRCWHEAT2
Reference crop – winter wheat
6,5
6
5,5
t/ha
5
observed yield
4,5
simulated yield
4
3,5
3
2,5
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
988
1989
1990
years
46
County
Observed yield
(t/ha)
Simulated yield
(t/ha)
AFRCWHEAT
Győr
Observed weather
4.88
0.63
4.9
0.5
CO2 conc.: 360 ppm
3.7
0.4
CO2 conc.: 500 ppm
4.2
0.5
4.8
0.6
CO2 conc.: 360 ppm
3.8
0.4
CO2 conc.: 500 ppm
4.4
0.5
Generated weather
Debrecen
Observed weather
4.69
0.69
Generated weather
Simulated winter wheat yields
47
Distribution of yield and loss of the winter wheat
48
maize
wheat
Csongrád county
Hajdú-Bihar county
The distribution of relative loss of yield
49
GG 360
100
90
80
frequencies
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
relatíve yield loss %
GG 500
100
90
80
frequencies
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
5
10
15
relatíve yield loss %
20
25
30
50
The factors of the adaptation strategy are the
following:
• new varieties (adaptation to new vegetation
periods, resistance, water-use, etc.),
• new agrotechnics,
• land use,
• risk reducing techniques,
• catastrophe analysis, elaboration of an
adaptation strategy,
• socio-economic consequences.
51
Thank you for your attention!
52