Transcript Jeremy Carter, Buildings and Infrastructure

Adapting the city
Buildings and infrastructure workshop
EcoCities research summary
Jeremy Carter
Research Fellow, University of Manchester,
School of Environment & Development
Recent trends in GM weather and climate events
Weather/
climate event
Number of recorded
events across GM
(1945-2008)
% of total recorded
events across GM
(1945-2008)
Flood
158
41.9
Storm
85
22.5
Cold
63
16.7
Fog
28
7.4
Heat
22
5.8
Drought
8
2.1
Air Quality
7
1.9
Smog
6
1.7
Consequences of weather/climate events in GM
Receptor type
Total number of
recorded consequences
(1945-2008)
% of total recorded
consequences
(1945-2008)
Critical infrastructure
155
37.5%
Health and wellbeing
128
31%
Natural environment
56
13.6%
Built environment
54
13.1%
Social and emergency
infrastructure
20
4.8%
Critical infrastructure and the built environment in GM
Weather/
climate event
Critical infrastructure
(1945-2008)
Built environment
(1945-2008)
Number of
events
% of total
events
Number of
events
% of total
events
Floods
61
39.5
18
33.3
Storms
25
16.1
30
55.6
Cold
39
25.2
3
5.7
Fog
16
10.3
0
0
Heat
8
5.2
3
5.7
Drought
6
3.9
0
0
Susceptibility of GM infrastructure to flood risk
• 7% of hazardous substance
instillations in flood zone 3
• 6% of motorway junctions in
flood zone 3
• 5% of fire stations in flood zone 3
• 2.4% educational establishments
in flood zone 3
The EcoCities Spatial Portal
Mapping flood zones 2 and 3, and
educational establishments.
Mapping the urban heat island and
residential care homes.
Weather/climate
event
Projections for Greater Manchester
Fluvial floods (inc.
more winter rainfall)
Increasing: Increase in winter rainfall and extreme rainfall
events.
Pluvial floods (inc.
more winter rainfall)
Increasing: Increase in winter rainfall and extreme rainfall
events.
Storms (inc. high
winds)
Variable: Possible fall in summer storms. Possible rise in winter
gales. More wind storms.
Cold events
Decreasing: Winter temps increasing. Winter night time
minimum temps increasing.
Heat waves (inc.
higher temps)
Increasing: Increasing summer temps. Higher summer night
time and warmest summer day temps.
Air quality (inc. smog) Decreasing: Fewer blocking anticyclones under some metrics
Drought (inc. fall in
summer rainfall)
Increasing: Fall in summer rainfall. Increase in summer temp.
Weather/
climate event
projections
Implications for critical
infrastructure
Implications for the built
environment
- Internal and external building
Fluvial floods (inc - Damage to infrastructure
more winter
damage
- Service disruption
rainfall)
Increasing
- Silting/overtopping of reservoirs - Risk of slope instability
- Landslips on road/rail networks
- Damage to bridges
Pluvial floods (inc - Damage to infrastructures
more winter
- Service disruption
rainfall)
Increasing
- Treatment of polluted runoff
- Urban drainage capacity
pressure
- Internal and external building
damage
- Increased damp risk in buildings
Weather/
climate event
projections
Implications for critical
infrastructure
Implications for the built
environment
Heat waves (inc
higher
temperature)
Increasing
- Higher energy demand for
cooling
- Soil shrinkage and subsidence
Drought (inc less
summer rainfall)
Increasing
- Water supply constraints
- Higher rates of deterioration of
concrete
- Risk of rails buckling and roads
deteriorating
- Internal overheating of some
buildings
- Less water for cooling power
stations
- Impact on water utility
planning and processes
- Soil shrinkage and subsidence
- Soil shrinkage and subsidence
- Less water for building
maintenance
Human comfort in office buildings
• Productivity and health of workers are associated
with thermal comfort in offices
• Level of control over temperature and ventilation
in offices is crucial for employees’ comfort, health
and productivity.
• Landlord regarded as responsible for physical
building changes, tenants for adjusting
behaviour.
• Behavioural adaptation measures affected by
common reliance on air conditioning and the
variability of tenant companies.
This study used Arup Appraise data
Urban green/blue infrastructure
Artificial wetland
Benefits of green infrastructure
• Reduced surface runoff
• Moderating air temperatures
• Improving air quality
• Protecting and enhancing biodiversity
• Providing recreation space
• Reducing carbon emissions
Green roof
Flood detention basin
Oxford Road: green infrastructure scenarios
High development
4% green space
45
Deep green
34% green space
Maximum surface temperature (°C)
Business as usual
15% green space
High
development
= +5ºC
43
41
39
37
Business
as usual
35
33
31
Deep green
= -6ºC
29
27
25
1961-1990
Current
situation
Business as
usual
Deep green
High
development
Development scenarios for 2050s high
emissions scenario
~21% green space will maintain
surface temperatures at baseline
Greater Manchester – future land use scenarios
Long descent scenario 2050
Upward Spiral scenario 2050
Summary
• Weather/climate risks to buildings and infrastructure are evolving
• Today’s developments will be operating in a different climate regime
in the future
• New developments need to be resilient to future climate change
• Adaptation needs to mix physical and behavioural responses
• Green and blue infrastructure is a valuable adaptation response
• Climate change projections should ideally be considered alongside
socio-economic projections.
Acknowledgements
Many thanks to Bruntwood and the Oglesby Charitable Trust
for their generous support of the EcoCities programme.
The research support and assistance of the EcoCities team in
developing the content for this presentation is much appreciated.
Particular thanks go to:
Gina Cavan
Angela Connelly
John Handley
Simon Guy
Aleksandra Kazmierczak
Principal sources of data
Carter, J. G. and Lawson, N. (2011). Looking back and projecting forwards: Greater
Manchester’s weather and climate. EcoCities, The University of Manchester.
Carter, J. G. (2012). Land use change scenarios for Greater Manchester: analysis
and implications for climate change adaptation. EcoCities project, University of
Manchester.
Cavan, G. and Kazmierczak, A. (2011). Urban greening to adapt urban areas to
climate change: Oxford Road Corridor case study. EcoCities, The University of
Manchester.
Kazmierczak, A., and Kenny, C. (2011). Risk of flooding to infrastructure in Greater
Manchester. EcoCities, The University of Manchester.
Kazmierczak, A. and Connelly, A. (2012). Adaptation to weather and climate in office
buildings in Manchester. EcoCities, The University of Manchester.
Adapting the city