Transcript Professor John Handley

Adapting the city: preparing for climate
change in Greater Manchester
Professor John Handley
University of Manchester
with Jeremy Carter, Gina Cavan, Angela Connelly,
Simon Guy and Aleksandra Kazmierczak
Presentation outline
• Global and European climate projections
• UK Climate Change Risk Assessment
• Towards a vulnerability and risk assessment framework
• Recent trends in climate and the climate projections for Greater
Manchester
• Climate change risk and impact assessment
• Building adaptive capacity
• Ways forward and priority actions
Climate zones shift in a +4°C world
Source: New, Liverman and Anderson, 2009
Climate change in Europe: high emissions scenario
Source: EC Green Paper, 2007
UK Climate Change Risk Assessment
“Potential climate risks in other parts of the
world are thought to be much greater than
those directly affecting the UK, but could have
a significant indirect impact here. These risks
include effects on global health, political
stability and international supply chains.”
Source: UK CCRA 2012
Climate change adaptation
“…adjustments in natural or human systems in response to
actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which
moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities.”
(IPCC 2007)
EcoCities goal: to provide Greater Manchester with its first
blueprint for an integrated climate change adaptation
strategy, based on leading scientific research and extensive
stakeholder engagement.
A framework for climate change risk and
vulnerability assessment in urban areas
Hazards
Trends and Projections
Heat waves
Drought and floods
Precipitation
Sea level rise
Vulnerability
City size and
density
Topography
% of poor
% of GDP
Adaptive
Capacity
Information and
Resources
Institutions and
Governance
A new vulnerability and risk
management paradigm is
emerging as a useful framework
for enabling city decision makers
to adapt to climate change
Source: World Bank 2009; Urban
Climate Change Research Network, 2011
Recent changes and trends in
Greater Manchester’s climate
Annual average daily
mean temperature (°C)
for 1961-1990 and
1971-2000
12
Mean temperature (°C)
11
10
9
8
7
1914 1920 1926 1932 1938 1944 1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004
Ye ar
Annual average daily
mean temperature for
Greater Manchester,
1914-2006
UK Climate Projections (UKCP09)
• Probabilistic climate change projections
on a 25x25km grid based on three GHG
emissions scenarios
• Weather generator produces hourly and
daily outputs of climate for a specific
location on a 5x5km grid
Climate projections for Greater Manchester
• EcoCities combined both outputs
from UKCP09 by creating a climate
classification for Greater
Manchester on a 5km grid with
climate change projections for the
high emissions scenario for the
2050s
• Detailed outputs are also provided
for the 5km grid square over
central Manchester for 3 scenarios
Climate projections for Greater Manchester
• Climate change projections are shown at three
probability levels:
̵
̵
̵
10% probability level – unlikely to be less than
50% probability level – as likely as not
90% probability level – unlikely to be greater than
Annual mean temperature, 2050s high scenario
Temperature of the warmest day in summer
Number of heatwave events per year in central
Manchester
Number of heatwave events
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Low
Baseline
Medium
2020s
High
Low
Medium
2050s
Scenario
High
Low
Medium
2080s
High
Number of cooling degree days per year in
central Manchester
120
Number of days
100
80
60
40
20
0
Low
Baseline
Medium
2020s
High
Low
Medium
2050s
Scenario
High
Low
Medium
2080s
High
Number of heating degree days per year in
central Manchester
350
Number of days
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Low
Baseline
Medium
2020s
High
Low
Medium
2050s
Scenario
High
Low
Medium
2080s
High
Winter mean precipitation
Summer mean precipitation
Number of days with heavy rainfall per year in
central Manchester
10
Number of events
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Low
Baseline
Medium
2020s
High
Low
Medium
2050s
Scenario
High
Low
Medium
2080s
High
Potential climate change impacts for business
• Risks of business disruption due to flooding
• Insurance industry: exposure to flood risk
• Hotter summers are projected to increase the risk of
overheating in workplaces
• Warmer temperatures might increase the region’s appeal as a
tourist destination
• Opportunities to provide adaptation-related products and
services at home and abroad
Adapted from UK CCRA 2012
Potential impacts for health and wellbeing
• Hotter summers are projected to increase the risk of heatrelated death and illness
• Milder winters are projected to result in a major reduction in
the risk of cold-related death and illness
• Casualties due to flooding and the impact of floods on mental
well-being are both projected to increase
• Health problems caused by air pollution may increase
Adapted from UK CCRA 2012
Potential impacts on buildings and infrastructure
• Overheating is an increased risk to building occupants
• Energy demands for cooling are likely to increase
• Energy demands for heating are projected to decrease
• Flood risks to buildings and key infrastructure increase
• Damage to road and rail bridges projected to increase
• Sewers projected to fill and surcharge more frequently
• Water resources are projected to become scarcer
• Functionality of green infrastructure could be impaired by drought
Adapted from UK CCRA 2012
EcoCities research at three spatial scales
EcoCities carried out research across
three levels of scale:
• Greater Manchester (Example 1)
• Neighbourhood (Example 2)
• Building (Example 3)
Vulnerability of communities to surface water
flooding
Greater
• Past events and future trends suggest increasing
flood risk
• Assessment of the current vulnerability of
communities
Manchester
Neighbourhood
Building
• Emergency services as adaptive capacity
Hazards
• Future economic development of GM will affect
the vulnerability of communities
• Future land use changes will affect the risk of
surface flooding
Vulnerability
Adaptive
Capacity
Adapting The Corridor with green infrastructure
• Increasing occurrence of high
temperatures and heat waves
• City centres are particularly
vulnerable due to UHI
Greater
Manchester
Neighbourhood
Building
• Green Infrastructure as an
adaptive measure
• Importance of The Corridor
partnership in delivering the
changes
© John McAslan and
Partners, Manchester
Hazards
Vulnerability
Adaptive
Capacity
Retrofitting office buildings for higher
temperatures
•
High temperatures are on the increase but cold spells
still require appropriate measures
•
Worker productivity is affected by their thermal comfort
•
Retrofitting physical measures is one solution
•
Adaptive capacity can also be seen in human
expectations and behaviour
•
Greater
Manchester
Neighbourhood
Building
Hazards
Adaption to climate change needs to address
overheating, enhance human comfort, reduce costs
and help mitigation actions
Vulnerability
Adaptive
Capacity
EcoCities – Four degrees of preparation
EcoCities findings are presented
on a website including a spatial
portal, document library, related
research and additional resources
www.adaptingmanchester.co.uk
From blueprint to action...?
• The Greater Manchester Climate Strategy aims to shape Greater
Manchester as a place that radically cuts emissions and secures
growth whilst minimising vulnerability and increasing
resilience to a rapidly changing climate.
• It will strengthen adaptation functions that operate on a subregional / regional scale, e.g. water supply, flood risk
management, transport and green infrastructure
Source: Greater Manchester Climate Strategy 2011-2020
Meeting the adaptation challenge (1)
Greater Manchester is potentially well-placed to meet the
adaptation challenge because:
1. The frameworks for natural process (watershed and airshed)
are broadly congruent with the administrative geography
of GM;
Source: Greater
Manchester Climate
Strategy 2011-2020
Meeting the adaptation challenge (2)
2. The governance frameworks linking district to district,
and districts to business and the wider community are
substantially in place
3. There is a shared commitment to action on adaptation
through the GM Strategy and GM Climate Strategy
4. Partnership working with the University sector is gaining
strength, e.g. EcoCities
UK Climate Change Risk Assessment
• Priorities for action within next 5 years:
̵
Flood and coastal erosion risk management
̵
Specific aspects of natural ecosystems
̵
Management of water resources, particularly in
areas with increasing water scarcity
̵
Overheating of buildings and other infrastructure
in the urban environment
̵
Risks to health, e.g. from heatwaves and flooding
̵
Economic opportunities, especially to develop
adaptation products and services
Source: UK CCRA 2012
Key actions at conurbation level
Strategic planning
• Green Infrastructure Framework
• Strategic Flood Risk Assessment
• Biodiversity Action Plan
• Climate Vulnerability Assessment?
Emergency planning
• NHS Manchester Heatwave Plan 2010
• The Greater Manchester Resilience Forum
• Greater Manchester Risk Register
• Ensuring a diverse set of responses
are in place to target all
communities?
Taking foward the climate change partnership
• Using EcoCities resources to tackle vulnerability and building
adaptive capacity towards Safeguarding Communities
• Investing for the long-term in our Buildings and
Infrastructure to increase resilience to future extreme
weather events and to complement mitigation strategies
• Keeping the links open between private, public and voluntary
sectors to support the generation of innovative Finance and
Investment mechanisms.
Many thanks to Bruntwood and the Oglesby Charitable Trust
for their generous support of the EcoCities programme.
Adapting the city