Transcript Slide 1

Economic Outlook
Baron Frankal
 Global
 National
 Greater Manchester…
… Dashboard has arrived !
Global Imbalances
7.0
6.0
% OF TOTAL GDP
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook (WEO) database
Global Economic Growth
10.0
8.0
% GROWTH
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
-2.0
-4.0
Advanced Economies
Source: World Bank 2010
Emerging and developing economies
2010
2012
2014
European Deficits
16.0%
12.0% in 2010-11
(HMT Pre-Budget
Report 2009)
12.7%
(Revised)
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
13.6%
6.0%
4.0%
7.7%
7.2%
5.0%
2.0%
3.4%
2.7%
2.3%
0.0%
0.0%
Iceland
Greece
Ireland
United
Kingdom
France
Italy
EU average
Germany
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook (WEO) database
Exchange Rates
2.5
EXCHANGE RATE
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
1999
2000
2001
2002
POUND TO DOLLAR
2003
2004
2005
2006
POUND TO EURO
2007
2008
2009
DOLLAR TO EURO
2010
UK Inflation – February 2010
Source: Bank of England
Interest Rates
16.0
14.0
INTEREST RATE (%)
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
1990
1992
1994
1996
FEDERAL RESERVE RATE
1998
2000
2002
2004
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK RATE
2006
2008
2010
BANK OF ENGLAND RATE
Gross Lending Credit
17 500
17 000
Lending in £ Millions
16 500
16 000
15 500
15 000
14 500
14 000
13 500
13 000
January 2008
July 2008
January 2009
July 2009
January 2010
The Recession in the North West
Average number of JSA claimants between July 2008 and June 2009
What is the Manchester Monitor?
 Dashboard of Greater Manchester specific data covering
worklessness, business, economy and opinion
 Designed to provide a monthly analytical snapshot of the
economic wellbeing of the city region
 Worklessness covers unemployment, inactivity, benefit
claimants and job vacancies
 Business covers share prices, business risk profiles and
mergers and acquisitions
 Economy covers housing market, new construction orders,
airport activity and the tourism market
 Opinion looks at the perceptions of the city region
Manchester Monitor – February 2010
Reasons to be cheerful

Compared to last year, the situation is vastly improved

82.7% more job vacancies, higher annual hotel occupancy

Average share of the region’s listed firms is up 22.6% on the year, ahead of the FTSE
100, up 20.9%

House prices in the city region have shown four months of sustained increase
But not all indicators are positive

Effects of national weak investment, mortgage lending and retail figures

Airport activity is lower than last year

Jobseekers are up 5.3% monthly
Signs of tentative recovery; GM Chamber survey shows increased confidence..
...however fundamentals at national level create gloomy outlook
Thank you!
[email protected]
www.twitter.com/mancmonitor
Total debt
160.0
GERMANY
NET GOVERNMENT DEBT (% OF GDP)
140.0
FRANCE
UNITED STATES
JAPAN
ITALY
120.0
100.0
UNITED
KINGDOM
80.0
60.0
40.0
CANADA
20.0
0.0
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook (WEO) database; forecasts begin 2008, except for Japan (2007)