Transcript Climate Change Mitigation in Southern Africa: Zambia study

UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment
Synthesis of National Experiences with Integrated
Development and Climate Policies
Kirsten Halsnæs, URC andP.R. Shukla, IIM,
Ahmedabad
UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment
Structure
•Overview of how sustainable development and
climate change perspectives have been applied in
different studies.
•Lessons from mitigation studies.
•Lessons from adaptation studies.
•Sustainable development and international climate
policy implications.
•Cross cutting conclusions.
•Suggestions for new activity areas.
UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment
Sustainable Development and Climate
Change Perspectives
Studies vary according to scope and methodological
approach:
•Scope:
•Sectors: Energy, agriculture, forestry, water,
infrastructure etc.
•Mitigation versus adaptation.
•National and international climate policy conclusions.
•Approach:
•National scenarios and quantiative results.
•In depth analysis of case studies.
•Policy dialogues
UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment
Development and Mitigation: Energy
Climate
Adaptation:
Energy
infrastructure,
Component
energy, water/agr.
links
UNEP Risø
Bangladesh,Brazil,
China, India,
Senegal, South
Africa
Methodological
Guidelines
Country studies
World
Development
Growing in the
Greenhouse
World Resources
Institute
Brazil, China, India,
South Africa
Summary report
NMP, NL
Bangladesh, Brazil,
China, India,
Senegal, South
Africa
Journal papers
SD policies and
measures for
climate change
mitigation
Development and Vulnerability and
Climate
adaptation options
in landuse sectors
Landuse
Component
UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment
OECD
Vulnerability and
Development and adaptation
Climate Project
OECD Environment
and Development
Egypt, Fiji,
Bangladesh, Nepal,
Tanzania, Uruguay
Summary report
Asian
Perspectives on
Climate Regime
Beyond 2012
IGES Japan
China, India,
Indonesia, Korea,
Vietnam
Summary report
Journal papers
The PEW Centre
Summary report
International policy
regimes
Development and Climate Change
Climate
Mitigation.
Engaging
International and
Developing
national policy
Countries
regimes
UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment
Conlusions on the Overview
•Particularly large countries like Brazil, China, India, and South
Africa have been included.
•Many Asian countries have participated.
•Very few African and Latin American countries have
participated.
•Weak link between national studies and international climate
policy conclusions.
•Relatively few outputs in peer reviewed literature.
UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment
Mitigation Focused Studies
•Development, Energy and Climate, URC with ”the big four”
(Brazil, China, India and South Africa) + Bangladesh and
Senegal.
•SD PAM’s, WRI with ”the big four”
UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment
Development, Energy and Climate Approach
Country study work including assessment of energy policies
with regard to implications on MDG’s and climate change.
Focal areas for SD indicators:
•Costs, benefits and other general economic impacts.
•Income generation and distribution.
•Energy provision and distribution.
•Environmental impacts.
•Health impacts of energy use and access to health services.
•Education
•Local participation.
Quantitative and qualitative analysis using scenarios and
models
UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment
Focal Study Areas
•The role of energy in SD seen in a macroeconomic
context and at housholed level.
•Social, economic and environmental impacts of
energy scenarios.
•The impacts of including GHG emission reduction
in national policies.
Case study results for China, India, and South
Africa are shown
UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment
250
200
150
100
50
Brazil
Denmark
South Africa
People's Republic of China
India
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
0
1971
CO2 per TPES (Indexed 1971=100)
300
UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
Brazil
Denmark
South Africa
People's Republic of China
India
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
0
1971
CO2 per GDP (Indexed 1971=100)
160
UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment
UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment
Table 7 Average Production Costs of Fossil Fuel Based Power Production and Electricity Prices
Countries
Average cost of power production in Average price of power in 2000
2000 (USD cents, 2000 prices/kWh) paid by private consumers (USD
cents, 2000 prices/kWh)
People's Republic of
0.03
0.06
China #
Denmark2
2
25
India
2.8
4.3
South Africa
0.6
1.4
United States *
2.2
8.243
Sources:
# NDRC, 2006
* www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/fig7p4.html, visited on 14 August 2006.
2 Based on average electricity spot market prices and Energy Statistics 2004 page 43 (EPA, 2005)
3 For residential consumers, Energy Information Administration, Official Energy Statistics from the US
government, 2006
UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment
Table 8 Household Expenditure on Energy for Indian Households in 2000 and Chinese
Households in 2004
HH income
category
Poorest 0-5%
0-10%
10-20%
20-40%
40-60%
60-80%
80-90%
Top 90-100%
India rural, 2000
Absolute
expenditu
re (USD, % share of
2000
total HH
prices)
expenditure
0,46
10,2%
0,51
10,1%
0,62
9,0%
0,73
8,7%
0,97
8,9%
1,15
8,6%
1,44
8,1%
1,79
7,2%
India urban, 2000
Absolute
expenditure
(USD,
% share of
2000
total HH
prices)
expenditure
0,65
10,9%
0,80
10,7%
1,04
10,5%
1,46
10,1%
1,73
9,6%
2,13
8,9%
2,67
7,8%
4,01
5,7%
China urban, 2004
Absolute
expenditure
(USD,
% share of
2000
total HH
prices)
expenditure
3,00
10,3%
3,33
9,8%
4,10
8,7%
4,79
7,9%
5,57
7,2%
6,55
6,6%
7,67
6,0%
10,10
5,0%
UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment
Indexed (1971=100)
1600
People's Republic of China
GDP increases to indexed
7031 (RS) and 7013 (AS)
1200
800
400
0
1971
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
GDP (RS)
TPES (RS)
CO2 (RS)
GDP (AS)
TPES (AS)
CO2 (AS)
2030
UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment
India
SO2/TPES
400
300
Per capita electricity
SO2/TPES
500
China
400
Per capita electricity
TPES/GDP
200
200
100
100
Efficiency of electricity
generation (fossil)
0
Efficiency of electricity
generation (fossil)
CO2/GDP
Investments in new power
plants
2010
0
CO2/GDP
Investments in new power
plants
CO2/TPES
Renewable share in power
generation
2000
TPES/GDP
300
CO2/TPES
Renewable share in power
generation
2020
2000
2030
SO2/TPES
400
South Africa
300
Per capita electricity
TPES/GDP
200
100
Efficiency of electricity generation
(fossil)
0
CO2/GDP
Investments in new power plants
CO2/TPES
Renewable share in power generation
2000
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment
Policy Impacts -China
Clean Coal Technologies will provide:
•Energy security.
•Large employment to low income families that are
employed with the production of the technologies
(7.6 mill people in 2004 and 7.8 mill. people in 2030).
•Establishment of a strong position for China on
international markets for cleaner coal technologies.
•Reduction in local and global emissions.
UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment
SD Policies and Measures - Approach
SD PAM’s are defined as policies and measures taken by a
country in pursuit of its domestic policy objectives.
Criteria for SD PAM’s:
•Specific national development objectives.
•Can include specific legislative or executive acts, regulations,
various instruments, and public-private partnership. Solely
private projects or initiatives are excluded.
•GHG emissions should be reduced.
•Suggested as a basis for climate change commitments.
UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment
SD PAM Case Study Results
•China: Motorization trends.
•India: Rural electrification.
•South Africa: Carbon capture and storage.
•Brazil: Biofuels for transport.
•Issues include energy security, non-energy sectors, international
agreements/finance.
UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment
Adaptation Focused Studies
OECD project Bridge Over Troubled Water
•Case studies for Egypt, Fiji, Bangladesh, Nepal, Tanzania, and
Uruguay.
•General lessons:
•Climate Change is already affecting development.
•Future climate change may also need consideration in
development planning.
•A significant portion of development assistance is directed at
climate sensitive sectors. Range 50-65% in Nepal to 12-26% in
Tanzania.
•Development activities routinely overlook climate change and
often also variability.
UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment
Adaptation Focused Studies, Continued
Proposed activities:
•Making climate information more relevant (including short term forecasts and
variability).
•Developing and applying climate risk screening tools (including at project level).
•Identifying and using appropriate entry points for climate information (EIA, land
use planning).
•Shifting emphasis to implementation.
•Encouraging meaningfull coordination
and the sharing of good practices
(private/public, international climate policies).
UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment
International Climate Policies
Asian consultations on climate regime beyond. 2012, IGES. Dialogues
with China, India, Indonesia, Korea, and Vietnam.
Ideas for strenthening the future climate regime from an Asian
perspective:
•Developmental concerns, in particular energy security, should be
addressed as a priority. Due consideration of equity.
•Flexibility in accomodating national conditions. Mitigation and
adaptation differentiation.
•CDM projects with SD impacts.
•Mainstreaming of adaptation.
•Finance including flexible inter-governmental approaches and
private finance.
•Capacity sthrengtening for Asian negotiatos and NGO’s.
UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment
Cross-cutting Conclusions
•Mitigation policies have to be framed in the context of SD.
•Large growth in energy consumption is expected. Due to energy
security and costs this can imply increasing CO2 intensity of energy
consumption.
•GHG emission reduction policies need special consideration beyond
baseline issues.
•Energy access and affordability issues are to be integral elements.
UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment
Cross-cutting Conclusions
•Climate change impacts already today influence major
development priorities.
•Very limited information and capacities are available for
mainstreaming.
•Mainstreaming need to be anchored in EIA and national planning,
integrated in project implementation now.
•SD framework is still not deeveloped as a framework that can be
used in international climate cooperation despite various attempts
are done by SD-PAM’s, Asian dialogues and other initiatives.
UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment
Proposed New Activities
• Link SD and Climate scenarios with stabilisation scenarios and
future international scenario work.
UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment
Proposed Activities, Continued…..
•Integrate adaptation and mitigation studies:
•Methodological framework.
•Case examples on agriculture/energy, water/agriculture,
energy/agriculture, biomass etc.
•Emphasis social impact analysis e.g. using household
expenditure data and time series.
•Integrated local environmental impacts and health issues.
•Address key energy sector issues including:
•Energy security.
•Finance.
•The future role of coal and renewable energy.
•Draw general conclusions about replicability of case study lessons.
•Link to international climate policy regimes.