Transcript Vortragsthema - Georgia Institute of Technology

Climate Resilience in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Societies
Workshop on Climate Sceince Needed to Support Robust Adaptation Decisions
Georgia Tech, Atlanta, 6th February 2014
Janani Vivekananda
Manager, Environment, Climate Change and Security Programme
International Alert
1. Understanding the Linkages between Climate Change and Security
2. Approaches to the addressing links between climate, resilience and peace
3. Conclusion and Discussion
Elements of Vulnerability
Vulnerability
Exposure
Rate and variation of
climate change
Sensitivity
Availability and
importance of the
affected resource
Depend on climate change
impacts and environment
Adaptive Capacity
Generic
Impact specific
Depends on governance
and stability
Adapted from IPCC 2007
Adaptation and Resilience
Adaptation to climate change
•
“Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or
expected climatic stimuli or their effects which moderates harm or
exploits beneficial opportunities” (IPCC 2007:896)
•
Resilience
focuses on managing impacts of specific climate effects
Adaptation
Resilience
•
“Ability of countries, communities, and households to anticipate,
adapt to, and/or recover from the effects of potentially hazardous
occurrences (climate change, natural disasters, economic
instability, conflict) in a manner that protects livelihoods,
accelerates and sustains recovery, and supports economic and
social development” (IAWG-R, 2013)
Wars in the 21st century
That was the good news
• Decline in annual incidence of armed conflict has ended
– not clear if it has reversed:
30 in 2010 --- 37 in 2011 --- 32 in 2012
• In many conflicts, violence has only been suppressed
Risk of recidivism
• Peace processes usually need international support
May get harder to initiate and sustain
• And there are other dimensions of violence
Pressures - population trends
Positive And Negative Cycle
Climate and
Environmental
Change
decrease
5/16
Fragility
Vulnerability
Human
Insecurity*
Stability
Resilience
Human Security
Violent
Conflict
Peace
increases
* Human security = “freedom from the risk of loss or damage to a thing that
is important to survival and well-being” (Barnett et al 2010. p4)
International Alert‘s Rationale Behind Working on Climate Change
• If climate change is a ‘risk multiplier’ which interacts with preexisting social, economic and political risks, making peace and
stability harder to achieve,
• then addressing the pre-existing root causes of vulnerability
will help build resilience to climate change and contribute to
stability
Local Perspectives and Narratives – understanding complexity
N. Shresta/International Alert
Local Perspectives and Narratives - maladaptation
N. Shresta/International Alert
N. Shresta
1. Understanding the Linkages between Climate Change and Security
2. Approaches to the addressing links between climate, resilience and peace
3. Conclusion and Discussion
Approaches to the climate-resilience-peace nexus
• Focus on Resilience
• Rethinking development
• Getting the institutions right
• Face the challenges of migration
• Peace positive low-carbon economy
11/16
Example of silo-ed aid approaches
Question 1: The call states that “while insecurity and violence affect
many cities in [Latin America], reducing exposure to those hazards is
outside the scope of this [call]. Activities that respond to those affected
by complex emergencies will not be considered under this [call]”? Given
the post-conflict context of the region, would it be acceptable to
propose an approach that will ensure that interventions will “do no
harm” in the given urban setting, and build resilience holistically to all
hazards in those contexts, including (but not exclusively) violence
and insecurity?
Response to Question 1:
[The donor] intends that projects funded focus on reducing the risks
associated with natural hazards, rather than human-made threats.
Proposed activities must clearly reflect this emphasis.
1. Understanding the Linkages between Climate Change and Security
2. Approaches to the addressing links between climate, resilience and peace
3. Conclusion and Discussion
Positive And Negative Cycle
Climate and
Environmental
Change
Climate
Change
Funding
decrease
s
Fragility
Vulnerability
Human
Insecurity
Stability
Resilience
Human Security
increases
Research, Policy and
Practice
•
•
•
Understanding
Complexity
Adjusting Funding
Changing Institutions
Violent
Conflict
Peace
Conclusions
1. Focus of qualitative literature = identifying correlations and arguing
causality does not help determine how to promote resilience in FCAS. Need
more multivariate analyses to address multivariate, complex risks.
2. Most models are at a resolution which offer limited value to development
programmers at national and subnational level.
3. Research required for policy and programming requires a nuanced
understanding power, politics and political economy of context.
4. In FCAS, we need to understand links between fragility, vulnerability, and
security in order to build resilient communities to cope with variability.
5. Implementation will still be a challenge, but better understanding of
complexity will at least put policy and practice on the right track.
Thank You for Your Attention
Janani Vivekananda
Manager – Climate Change and Security
International Alert, London
[email protected]
+44 207 627 6823
www.international-alert.org