Transcript "WG12 Presentation Ms Janani Vivekananda

Risk Assessment and Risk Management
The Hague, Netherlands, 3 November 2014
Janani Vivekananda
Head of Environment, Climate Change and Security Programme
International Alert
1. The compound nature of risks
2. Uncertainty and a few certainties
3. Challenges of applying risk assessments to Fragile States
4. How to prioritise actions
Seven Compound Climate-Fragility Risks
adelphi
Syria: Drought – displacement – urban pressures
Fragility Spectrum
Failed State/In
conflict
PostConflict/Transitional
Resilient State
Resilience states:
•
have the capacity and legitimacy of governing a population and its
territory.
•
can adapt to change and uncertainty.
•
build constructive relationships with their citizens, maintain
functioning institutions, and provide basic services.
•
can absorb shocks and handle stresses peacefully while
maintaining political stability and preventing violence.
…the flipside
• If climate change is a ‘risk multiplier’ which interacts with preexisting social, economic and political risks, making peace and
stability harder to achieve,
• then addressing the pre-existing root causes of vulnerability
will help build resilience to climate change and contribute to
development, peace and stability.
1. The compound nature of risks
2. Uncertainty and a few certainties
3. Challenges of applying risk assessments to Fragile States
4. How to prioritise actions
5. Conclusion
Uncertainties and Certainties:
How much average temperatures will increase.
What the impacts of rapid climate change will be.
What will be agreed at Paris
Climate impacts will play out over the next 20 years regardless
of Paris
The poorest will be the most vulnerable
Elements of Risk
Vulnerability
Exposure
Rate and variation of
climate change
Sensitivity
Availability and
importance of the
affected resource
Dependent on climate change
impacts and environment
Adaptive Capacity
Context and impact
specific
Dependent on
governance and stability
Adapted from IPCC 2007
1. The compound nature of risks
2. Uncertainty and a few certainties
3. Challenges of applying risk assessments to Fragile States
4. How to prioritise actions
Understanding complexity
Whose Risk? How are the
risks interlinked?
That are the consequences
on existing stresses?
N. Shresta/International Alert
1. The compound nature of risks
2. Uncertainty and a few certainties
3. Challenges of applying risk assessments to Fragile States
4. How to prioritise actions
How to prioritise: some guiding questions
• 1. Does the intervention directly or indirectly affect resilience?
• 2. Are the outcomes of the intervention sensitive to weather?
• 3. Does the intervention have long-term effects?
• 4. Is it difficult to reverse or retrofit the intervention or its effects?
• 5. Are the stakes high?
Conclusion
Understanding the context
Consideration of where and
how decisions are made
Doing no harm to existing
dimensions of resilience
Janani Vivekananda
Head of Climate Change and Security
International Alert, London
[email protected]
+44 207 627 6823
www.international-alert.org