Transcript The Climate Threat & Conservation Planning

The Climate Threat &
Conservation
Facing Certainty & Uncertainty
T. Kittel
© 2011, T. Kittel, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder
Manifestation of Change – Land Hydrology
Niwot Ridge, Southern US Rockies
Subalpine Spruce-Fir Forest
March Maximum Temperature
Trend = + 0.9=C/decade
Manifestation of Change – Land Hydrology
• Spring snowmelt 
• Hydrograph shifts
Timing of spring snowmelt
1948-2000 trends
+20d later
–20d earlier
Also:
• Warmer river temperatures
Manifestation of Change - Biosphere
• Earlier Spring Events - bird migration
Common Loon arrival
British Columbia interior
Earliest observation dates of Common Loons in
the central and northern interior of British Columbia
Steps to Understanding – Historical Analyses
• Ecological Record
61 studies of 694 species or groups of species
- Root et al. 2003. Nature
Changes in spring timing of a
species’ temperature-related trait
earlier
Also:
later
Terrestrial –
• Longer Growing Season - with earlier spring bud break
• Shifts in Plant & Animal Distributions - poleward and upward
The Uncertainties – The Underlying Problem
Socioeconomic, Climate, & Ecological Systems –
• Complex systems:
• Many components  Highly interactive
• Key processes: Span wide range of temporal & spatial scales
• Multiple forcings
• Non-linear  Thresholds
Land Surface
Bottomline • Difficult to gather key data
• Difficult to predict behavior
Cryosphere
Biosphere
Uncertainty – Sources
• Socio-economic Pathway – Emissions Uncertainty
?
Which world?
– Our choice
Uncertainty – Sources
• Climate Model Limitations 
For a given emission scenario…
°C
A2
A2
?
A2
Different models’
outcomes
“Same Conceptual Basis,
Different Results”
Uncertainty – Sources
• Model Uncertainty – Total Ecosystem Carbon
LPJ
HADCM2SUL
CGCM1
“Same Ecology, Different Results”
- at the regional level
© 2007, T. Kittel
MC1
Uncertainty – Sources
• Total Ecosystem Carbon
For a given emission scenario… for a given climate model scenario
“Same Ecology, Different Results”
- with time
© 2007, T. Kittel
The Certainties – Climate
‘Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful’GEP Box, 1987
‘What do we know for sure?’ – lessons from the climate models
(1) Very character of regional climates will likely change over the
next decades:
– Multivariate
• Higher surface temperatures – different responses for Tmin Tmax
• Regional changes in precipitation,
cloud cover (light regime), wind regimes, etc.
– In means, but in also seasonality and interannual variability
• Geographic and temporal coherence in forcings & responses?
Niwot Ridge, Southern US Rockies
Subalpine Spruce-Fir Forest
March Maximum Temperature
Trend = + 0.9=C/decade
Niwot Ridge T(max) Trends
Subalpine Forest
March =
+0.9=C/decade
MONTH
Alpine Tundra
Nov =
-0.5=C/decade
“Strong Seasonal and Location Dependence”
– Trends will be spatially dependent – even for Landscapes
• Local landscape variation in surface interactions with atmosphere
The Certainties – Climate
– Trends likely not to be monotonic
• As circulation patterns shift, & the system passes thresholds
– Multivariate, non-linear changes give rise to novel climates
Certainties – The Biosphere
– lessons from the ecological models
(2) Probable climate changes are of a magnitude and character to
be significant for populations, communities, and landscapes:
– Phenologies/life cycles
– Geographic ranges
– Ecosystem structure & function
Red-footed Booby in Mangrove
Galápagos Is.
• Resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded
• With extended periods dominated by seral stages
– Species interactions out of phase:
• Foodwebs, competition, pollination
Rufous Hummingbird
“The Forgotten Pollinators”
Lesser Long-nosed Bat
Long-distance migratory pollinators
• Threatened – habitat loss
• Keystone species
“Nectar corridors”
• Sequence of flowering plants
Monarch Butterfly
White-winged Dove
Arizona-Sonoran Desert Museum
www.desertmuseum.org/pollination/
Certainties – The Biosphere
– Changes not monotonic –
• ‘Winners vs. losers’?
• New equilibrium long in coming
– The rise of novel ecosystem types
“The loser now.
Will be later to win”
– Bob Dylan (1964, The
Times They Are A-Changin‘)
Certainties – The Biosphere
– Strong synergisms with other stressors
• Compounding effects of multiple threats
The Lessons
• The magnitude of uncertainties ≥ magnitude of system
sensitivity
• The magnitude of what’s certain will change everything
 Difficult for conservation action??
Conservation Strategies
 Steps to Understanding –
• Integrate Best Knowledge
 Steps to Action –
• Deal with Uncertainty
• Enhance Adaptive Capacity
Cat Tien National Park, Vietnam
The Uncertainty – Coping
“Get over it”
• Change perspective on it Recognize it – Be smart about it
Ecosystem Futures
Financial Market Dynamics
“If we build our … strategy around the [recognition] that we’re pretty darn
ignorant, we probably won’t have to wait very long for confirmation”
- John Clements, Wall Street Journal
Acting Under Uncertainty – Financial Analog
•
“Conserve smart”
= Implement strategies that recognize & handle uncertainty
• 5 key tenets:
1. Monitor temporal dynamics & trends – develop intuition
•
•
Historical analysis
Start monitoring as soon as get in the game,
not as an afterthought
 Research & Monitoring
2. Diversify holdings – to reduce risk in any one preserve
 Site Selection & Prioritization
Acting Under Uncertainty – Financial Analog
•
5 key tenets (con’t):
3. Balance goals:
•
•
Protecting current conservation sites &
Protecting sites with potential for adaptation
 Multiple-Goal Portfolio
 Enhanced Adaptive Capacity
4. Save aggressively – to counter downside risk of uncertainty
•
“How much is enough?”  Target Redundancy
5. Rebalance portfolio
•
Reassess strategy  Adaptive Management
Steps to Action – Adaptive Strategies
Enhance Adaptive Capacity –
Adopt ‘No Regrets’ & Scenario-independent Practices
Example strategies –
– Reduce vulnerability to other threats
• Habitat loss, Invasive species, Pollution
– Protect processes
• Watersheds, Food webs, Life cycles
– Landscape restoration
• Value of degraded sites
– Create networks of reserves
• & Reduce barriers: ‘Porous landscapes’
The Lessons
• The magnitude of uncertainties ≥ magnitude of system
sensitivity
• The magnitude of what’s certain will change everything
• Steps to Action –
• Integrate Best Knowledge
• Deal with Uncertainty
• Enhance Adaptive Capacity
Rhinoceros Hornbill eating
Strangler Fig fruits, Borneo