Transcript Slide 1
Building resilience to extreme weather in the south west Devon & Cornwall Energy & Environmental Management Group January 2014 Climate SouthWest “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal” “The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen and concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased.” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, AR5 WGI September 2013 Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate Outline • Weather & climate: past, present, future • Short exercise • What is means for the south west • What we can do • How Climate SouthWest can help Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate Weather versus climate? Climate - the average weather in a locality over a period of 30 years or more Weather – what is happening outside right now Adaptation? Mitigation – reducing our emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) Adaptation – preparing for the unavoidable impacts of climate change Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate What we have seen so far 2014: flooding and...? 2001: flooding 2013: heat wave flooding storm 2003: heat wave 2012: drought flooding 2005: flooding 2010: flooding snow & ice 2000: flooding 2006: drought heat wave 2007: flooding 2008: flooding snow & ice 2009: flooding snow & ice Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate What we are seeing now • Prolonged unsettled weather • Cold snap in North America • Storms expected • Location and strength of jet stream brings storms across Atlantic • Active area of research Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate What can we expect by 2050s Overall increase in temperature 2.7°C Increased winter precipitation 17% Decreased summer precipitation 20% Rising sea levels 26-29cm More frequent & intense extreme weather Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate What does it really mean? Our economy Our natural environment Marine Tourism & leisure Environmental Biotechnology technologies Food & drink Financial services Advanced engineering & aerospace Agriculture & horticulture Biodiversity, habitat, conservation & landscapes Coastal areas Forestry Sea fisheries Our society Housing Water Heritage Health resources & water quality River flooding & Transport Built drainage environment Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate Ripple Exercise Loss of profit Access Flooding road flooded Staff can’t get to work Can’t open No deliveries Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate Impacts for business and utilities Challenges • • • • • Business continuity Recovery costs from events Increased insurance costs Health and safety risks Disruption to supply chain / movement of goods and services Opportunities • • • • New market opportunities – goods and services Recreational and leisure opportunities Opportunities to enhance reputation Reduced energy demand in winter Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate Impacts for transport Opportunities • • • Increased scope for walking and cycling Less frost damage to infrastructure and less need for gritting Fewer ice/snow related accidents and infrastructure damage Challenges • • • Increased pressure on transport system from increased visitors Increased disruption Increased damage to infrastructure Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate Impacts for the built environment Opportunities • Less demand for winter heating • More potential for solar energy • Increased amount of trees • Improved drainage infrastructure • Changing design standards Challenges • Development in floodplains • More need for summer cooling • Increased rain penetration • Subsidence/landslips • Rising demand for water but decreased supply © White Design Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate Impacts for health Challenges • • • • • • Over exposure to UV – cataracts & skin cancer Increased heat related deaths Impacts of air pollution Food poisoning Infectious / tropical diseases Service delivery impacts Opportunities • • • Increased physical recreation – reduction in obesity Milder winters – reduction in excess winter deaths Fewer cold related admissions Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate Impacts for tourism Challenges • • • • • Visitor destinations at capacity Increased insurance costs Damage to buildings Staff and visitor health and safety Coastal locations threatened by sea level rise and increased erosion © Bournemouth Tourism Opportunities • • • • • Potentially longer season Job creation Diversification Tourism in ‘off peak’ periods New market opportunities Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate Impacts for agriculture & forestry Opportunities • New crop varieties • Reduced frost damage • Longer growing seasons • Improved land management and woodland creation Challenges • Increased risk of disease • Heat stress to poultry and livestock • Increased risk of drought • Loss of productive land due to sea level rise • Increased soil erosion and run-off Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate Impacts for biodiversity Opportunities • Flora and fauna move to northern distributions • Integrated land management and habitat creation © RSPB Challenges • Risk to drought vulnerable species • Increased visitor pressure on natural environment • Invasive non-native flora and fauna • Change in SW natural environment Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate What can we do? • • • • • Identify and be aware of vulnerabilities Identify support available Know flood risk Check insurance cover Incorporate adaptation measures into management plans/risk assessments/business contingency plans • Measure and review resilience during and after extreme weather events • Ensure adaptive measures considered in all decision-making Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate Climate UK network Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate Climate SouthWest partnership Business & utilities Agriculture & forestry Built environment Biodiversity Transport Local authorities Tourism Health Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate Tools to increase resilience Business Resilience Health Check • Interactive online tool • Identifies vulnerabilities • Produces bespoke prioritised action plan • Pilot workshops www.businessresiliencehealthcheck.co.uk Severe Weather Impacts Monitoring System (SWIMS) • • • • • Local authorities and partner organisations Measures cost of severe weather events Identifies impacts on services, communities, reputation and the environment Valuable decision-support tool Making the business case! Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate Climate SouthWest www.climatesouthwest.org [email protected] @ClimateSW Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate