Transcript Dr Luigi Cabrini - Bournemouth University

Tourism, economic crisis and climate change:
Challenges and opportunities
Sustainability, Climate Change and Tourism: Challenges posed by the global
economic crisis
Luigi Cabrini
Bournemouth University, 25 November 2009
Director, Sustainable Development of Tourism
World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
www.unwto.org
Contents
1.
2.
3.
4.
Global crisis and tourism
Tourism in the Green Economy
The Davos Process on Climate Change and Tourism
Mitigation strategies
2008
Forecast 2009
World
+2%
-6% to -4%
Europe
+0.3%
-8% to -5%
Asia and the Pacific
+1%
-4% to -1%
Americas
+3%
-6% to -3%
Africa
+4%
1% to 5%
Middle East
+18%
-10% to -5%
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
International Tourism 2009 – full year forecast
Outbound: declining expenditure abroad in 2009
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Demand picking up?
International Tourist Arrivals, World
15
2008
10 10
10
2009
9
+2%
6
5
3
0
1
0
Change (%)
Easter
Holiday
(April)
0
-3
-5
-1
-3
-1
-3
-10
Easter
Holiday
(March)
-15
-3
Jul.
Aug.
-7
-8
-10
-3
-11
-13
-20
-25
+6%
Jan..
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
May
-1%
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
-7%
Nov.
Dec.
Jan..
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Jun.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
International Tourism 2010 forecast
2010 forecast: 1% to 3%
12
10.1
10
7.9
8
5.4
Change (%)
6
6.1
6.1
2.9
4
2
2.0
1% to 3%
0.0
0
-2
-1.5
-4
-6
2000
2001
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
-6% to -4%
2008 2009* 2010*
UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts: regaining
confidence
UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts
Much
better
Better
Equal
Worse
Much
175
better
150
Better
125
Equal
100
75
50
Much
w orse
Worse
Prospects
Much
Ev aluation
w orse
25
T1 T2T3T1 T2T3T1 T2T3T1 T2T3T1 T2T3T1 T2T3T1 T2T3
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
So urce: Wo rld To urism Organizatio n (UNWTO) ©
'08
'09
Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecast
World
International Tourist Arrivals
1,600
1,400
1,200
1.0 bn
1,000
million
1.6 bn
Tourism 2020 Vision forecast
Actual 1995-2008
922
mn
800
600
400
534
mn
200
-T2020V average annual growth (aag) rate projected of 4.1% a year
- 2006: +6.1%
- 2007: +6.1%
- 2008: +2.0%
- actual aag in period 1995-2008 has been 4.3% a year
0
1995
2000
2005
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
2010
2015
2020
Tourism, economy and external shocks
World, Growth of Real GDP & International Tourist Arrivals
7% a year between 2004 and 2007
12
% change over previous year
10
Real GDP
Tourist Arrivals
2009: -1.1%
2010: 3.1%
2011-2014: 4%
8
6
4
2
0
-2
1975
Echo of second oil crisis /
Falklands and IsraelLebanon conflicts
1980
1985
Gulf War /
disintegration of
Yugoslavia
1990
1995
Asian Financial
Crisis
2000
Kosovo
2005
11S
2010
Iraq,
SARS
Crisis: time for change, time of chances
• Structural underlying weaknesses and threats are more
visible:
-
Sustainability issues
Aging stock and need to regeneration
Energy dependence
Climate change adaptation and mitigation
Competitiveness, human resources and cost structure
Low occupancy of accommodation and strong seasonality
Need for product development and diversification
Insufficient market differentiation
Need for more and more effective marketing and promotion
Cooperation and coordination
Response to the Crisis - Roadmap for recovery
Roadmap for recovery
Resilience
• Focus on job retention and sector support
• Understand the market and respond rapidly
• Boost partnership and ´Coopetition`
• Advance innovation and technology
• Strengthen regional and interregional support
Roadmap for recovery
Stimulus
• Create new jobs – particularly in SME’s
• Mainstream tourism in stimulus and infrastructure
programs
• Review tax and visa barriers to growth
• Improve tourism promotion and capitalize on
major events
• Include tourism in aid for trade and development
support
Roadmap for recovery
Green Economy
• Develop Green Jobs and Skills Training
• Respond Effectively to Climate Change
• Profile Tourism & Travel in all Green Economy
Strategies
• Encourage Green Travel Infrastructure
Investment
• Promote a Green Travel Culture in Suppliers,
Consumers & Communities
Tourism in the Green Economy
Forthcoming Study on Tourism for the Green
Economy Report
 UNWTO/UNEP cooperative effort
 It is one of the 11 economic sectors to be included in the GER
 Relevant messages:
o To GOVERNMENTS: where, how and under what conditions investments in
sustainable tourism bring faster economic recovery, create high quality jobs
and reduce poverty while also improving environmental outcomes.
o To BUSINESSES: how and under what conditions such investments are at least
as profitable as other investments.
o To SHAREHOLDERS: how and under what conditions green investments in
sustainable tourism are likely to yield more stable/secure and even higher
returns.
Structure of the Study
• Introduction
• Challenges and opportunities for the tourism sector:
 The global economic crisis and its effects on tourism
 Climate change and tourism
 Tourism and Poverty alleviation
 Tourism and protected areas
• State of Investment
• Scenarios of increased investment
• Financing
• Enabling Conditions
• Conclusions and Main Recommendations
Green Economy Report
INVESTMENT:
o Current Status of
global investment in
sustainable tourism
o What additional level
of investment is
required?
o By Whom? Why?
ECONOMY EFFECTS
OF INCREASED
INVESTMENTS ON
TOURISM:
Output
Jobs
Livelihood
Health
Poverty reduction
Environment
ENABLING
CONDITIONS:
o Financing for
sustainable tourism
o Barriers to tourism
approaches and how
to overcome them
o Other enabling
conditions (trade
policy, market access,
standards, etc)
The Davos Process on Climate
Change and Tourism
Tourism
Climate change
•
With its close connections to the environment and climate itself, tourism
is considered to be a highly climate-sensitive sector.
•
Climate change is not a remote future event for tourism, as the varied
impacts are becoming evident at destinations.
•
Changing climate patterns might alter major tourism flows.
•
Least developed countries and small island developing states might
be particularly affected.
•
Impacts of climate change on the tourism sector are expected to steadily
intensify.
•
At the same time, the tourism sector is a contributor to climate change;
GHG emissions from transport and accommodation.
Tourism Vulnerability ‘Hotspots’
Regional
Knowledge Gaps
The Davos Process on Climate Change and Tourism
2003
• First
International
Conference
on Climate
Change and
Tourism in
Djerba
2007
• 2nd
International
Conference in
Davos
• Ministerial
Summit in
London
• UNWTO
General
Assembly in
Cartagena
• UN Climate
Change
Summit Bali
2008
• Seminar in
Oxford
• Ministerial
Meeting in
London
• Conference in
Egypt
• Workshop in
Colombia
• UN Climate
Conference in
Poznan
2009 2015
• Cagliari• Millennium
Development
workshop
for
Goals
Mediterranean
• World Climate
Conference-3
in Geneva
• Gothenburg
Symposium
• UN Climate
Change
Summit in
Copenhagen
From Davos to Bali
Adaptation and Mitigation in
the Tourism sector
Low carbon travel
T&T in the Green Economy
CC and Tourism: Responding to
Global Challenges
2009
CC Adaptation &
Mitigation
Copenhagen
CC & Tourism. Djerba
MDG
2020
2050
Davos Declaration
• Climate is a key tourism resource but tourism is also a contributor to
climate change (5%)
• Tourism is a vital economic factor and contributor to the MGD
• Adopt urgent policies to encourage sustainable development: economic,
social, environmental and climate change responsiveness
• How to do it?
 Mitigate emissions (transport and accommodation)
 Adapt businesses and destinations to changing climate conditions
 New technology
 Help poorer regions adapting
Davos Declaration
Governments
• International Framework
• Partnerships
• Educate - Train - Monitor
Industry/Destinations
• Clean Energy
• Design/Product
• Tell Customers
Consumers
• Reduce Footprint
• Choose Carbon Clean
• Link to Conservation
Research/Media Nets
• Intensify Research
• Mainstream Education
• Promote Responsible
Travel
UNWTO’s Message at Bali Climate Summit
•
Tourism community will participate in the common effort led by the
United Nations.
•
Tourism is ready to take up its share of the burden in proportion with
its contribution to climate change.
•
However, do not unfairly target tourism! It is an activity as
respectable as others, which satisfies needs that are just as
essential.
•
Tourism generates wealth, creates jobs and contributes to the
alleviation of poverty.
•
Poor countries will be doubly affected if we deprive them of the
economic contribution of tourism.
The Davos Process
The Davos Process has a shared ownership
Its value resides in:
–
–
–
–
–
Promoting, collecting and disseminate the tourism initiatives on
climate change
Ensuring cooperation and coherence
Providing added value and visibility to efforts made
Representing a wide range of public and private stakeholders
Place tourism in the “climate change map”
The Davos Process
The Davos process is nurtured by a variety of initiatives :
– Energy Efficiency for the Tourism Industry (EETI) project
– The Caribsave partnership to address climate change impacts
in the Caribbean
– The Maldives project on adaptation to Climate Change
– WTTC initiative “ Leading the Challenge on Climate Change”
– WEF report “ Towards a low carbon travel and tourism sector”
– ETC’s San Marino workshop and European NTO’s engagement
–
International Task Force on Sustainable Tourism. The
Marrakech process
– The Global Sustainable Tourism Criteria
Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation:
Frameworks, Tools and Practices
• International seminar, Oxford, United Kingdom,
7-10 April 2008
• Capacity building and pragmatic adaptation and
mitigation techniques and methods for
developing countries and small island states
• Organised and coordinated by UNEP, Oxford
University (OUCE), UNWTO and WMO
• Some 30 high level tourism and environment
officials from developing countries and Small
Island developing states participated in the
Seminar.
• This Report provides frameworks, tools and best
practices for the tourism sector
WMO
Excellence in Energy for the Tourism Industry
Accommodation sector: SME hotels
Objectives
• Increase use of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Technologies
(EE & RET) by SME hotels in the European Union
• Strengthen hotel sector networks (e.g., National hotel associations,
destination authorities, energy management agencies) for promotion of
EE & RET in hotels
• Build better links between users in the hotel sector and EE & RET
suppliers and manufacturers
• Stimulate innovation by manufacturers and suppliers of EE & RET to
meet the needs of SME hotels
• Sensitise National and Local Authorities on adoption of suitable
supporting measures, policies and incentives to encourage use of EE &
RET by SME hotels
Implemented by UNWTO in cooperation with UNEP-DTIE, International Hotel and Restaurant
Association (IH&RA), European Renewable Energy Council (EREC), French Environment and
Energy Management Agency (ADEME)
Under negotiation with European Commission / EACI
Coastal Tourism in the Mediterranean:
Adapting to Climate Change
(Cagliari, Italy, 8 to 10 June 2009)
• Designed for decision-makers and tourism experts
• Strengthen the capacities of the tourism sector players in the Mediterranean countries to
fill the knowledge gap on tourism adaptation strategies
•
Representatives from 16 Mediterranean countries
• Support the integration of climate change mitigation and adaptation measures in the
national tourism development plans and strategies.
• Use of planning tools in coastal zones through exercises on Scenario Planning and
Strategic Planning for Sustainable Tourism Development
• Field visit to southwest Sardinia:
• Rehabilitation of a natural dune system
• Example of the a resort that has implemented environmental management of
the structure and eco-design
• Rehabilitation of a lighthouse through eco-architecture
Travel and Tourism in the Green Economy
Symposium
(14 -15 September 2009, Gothenburg)
•
Organized by the UNWTO, ETC, UNEP and the Swedish Government.
•
Aimed at exploring the links between the Green Economy Initiative and
the Davos Process on Climate Change and Tourism.
•
Discussion panels:
–
–
–
–
•
Tourism going climate neutral
The travel industry, innovation and new technologies
Destinations: A sustainable approach
Towards a Green Economy – NTO challenges and
opportunities
Focus on how sustainable tourism can contribute to
the transformation to the Green Economy.
Mitigation strategies
Global Tourism Emissions in 2005: CO2 Only
Sub-Sectors
CO2 (Mt)
Air transport *
522
40%
Car transport
418
32%
Other transport
39
3%
Accommodation
274
21%
Activities
52
4%
TOTAL
1,307
Total World
(IPCC 2007)
Tourism
Contribution
26,400
5%
Transportation
of Tourists = 75%
of Sector Emissions
* - does not include
non-CO2 emissions
and impact on climate
‘Business as Usual’ Projection of
Future CO2 Emissions from Tourism*
3500
3000
Air Transport
Mt CO2
2500
53%
Car Transport
2000
Other Transport
1500
1000
500
Accommodation
15%
43%
26%
21%
0
2005
* Excluding same-day visitors
Activities
24%
4%
7%
2035
Future CO2 Emissions from Global Tourism:
Scenarios of Mitigation Potential in 2035
3500
3000
Mt CO2
2500
-36%
2000
-43%
1500
-68%
1000
500
0
Baseline
2005*
‘Business as
Usual‘
2035*
Technical
Efficiency
ModalShift/Length of
Stay
Combined
2035 Mitigation Scenarios
* Excludes same-day tourists
Mitigation options for the Tourism Sector
◘
Reducing energy use / Conservation:
»
◘
Improving energy efficiency:
»
◘
changing transport behaviour (e.g. shift to rail and coach instead of car
and aircraft, choosing closer destinations), changing management
practices (e.g. videoconferencing for business tourism)
use technology to carrying out the same operation with a lower energy
input
Use of renewable or carbon-neutral energy:
»
substitute fossil fuels with energy sources that are not finite and cause
lower emissions, such as biomass, hydro, wind, and solar energy
MITIGATION MEASURES
Land Transport
-
Cars contribute more than 80% emission of the land transport
(but only 15%-20% for tourism purpose)
Key emissions abatement options for car transport:
 Development of more efficient vehicles.
• Abatement potential up to 30% of emissions
 Adoption of cleaner fuels.
• Develop a very low emissions car powered by electricity, fuel cells or
hydrogen
 Promoting changes to consumer behaviour reduction.
• Up to 15% of carbon emissions could be reduced
Source: World Economic Forum Study: Towards a Low Carbon Travel & Tourism Sector
MITIGATION MEASURES
Air Transport
- Acceleration of fleet renewal with more fuel efficient planes.
• More than 11% of the current world fleet are older than 25 years.
• Possible abatement potential of CO2 saving: >7%
- Reduce infrastructure inefficiencies in airspace management.
• Up to 12% of CO2 emissions can be reduced
- R&D innovation to develop new long-term technology which
could further reduce emissions
 Airframe Technologies
 Engine Technologies
 Alternative Fuels
MITIGATION MEASURES
Water Transport (Cruise ships)
- Operation & technical measures to reduce energy use
 Route optimization
 Cruise ship energy efficiency improvement
 Machine condition
- Change of energy source to power cruise lines
Each measure has a carbon abatement
potential around 7%. However this is not
cumulative due to interdependencies
MITIGATION MEASURES
Accommodation
- Operational & technical measures to reduce energy use
 Insulation
 Building design for new buildings
 Building Energy Management System
 Change in room temperature
- Change in energy source
 Solar
 Biomass / Bio-fuel
 Combined heat Power
- Change in consumer behaviour
 Increased energy awareness:
 Incentives for customers:
Zion National Park Visitor Centre
Each measure has a carbon abatement potential around 7%. However this is
not cumulative due to interdependencies
Preparing for Copenhagen and beyond

Tourism sector (mainly its transport and accommodation
subsectors) should incorporate in their operations efficient energy
use and management innovations to mitigate their GHG.

Tourism companies to design mid and long term plans with
meaningful targets, realistic and credible.

Tourism’s economic, social and development benefits need to be
communicated and positively perceived, so as not to penalize
tourism in comparison with other sectors.

Tourism stakeholders should partner rather than compete.
The Way Forward

Awareness raising and information for the tourism sector on the
impacts of climate change.

Capacity building for adaptation at destinations.

Analyse and apply mitigation measures along the supply chain of
the tourism sector.

Contribute to reach the objectives of reducing GHG emissions
generated by the sector, in the framework of the collaborative
action of the United Nations.

Continue the investigation on impacts, adaptation and mitigation
aiming to improve the specific knowledge and develop methods to
tackle the complex challenges related to climate change.
•Stabilize by 2050
•Start Now 2020 targets
•Common but differentiated
2015
• Reward Innovation 2012
• Transfer Technology
• Boost Investment
2009
• Carbon Price
• Tax
• Incentivise
• Regulate
2050
2020
•Adapt / Mitigate
• Technology / Finance
• Conservation
Thank you
www.unwto.org/sdt