Transcript THE CLIMATE SEVERITY INDEX FOR CANADA

THE CLIMATE SEVERITY
INDEX FOR CANADA
Recalculated for recently
observed climate change and a
scenario of future climate
The CSI of Phillips and Crowe
• An arbitrary index, with a scale of 0 to
100, designed to measure the impact of
climate on Canadians, with regard to:
– human comfort
– psychological well-being
– climatic hazards to human life, health and
well-being
• For 146 Canadian locations
CSI Ingredients
• winter discomfort
– January wind chill, winter length and severity
• summer discomfort
– humidex, summer length, warmth and dampness
• psychological factors
– darkness, sunshine, wet days, fog
• hazards
– wind, thunderstorms, blowing snow, snowfall
• outdoor mobility
– snowfall, visibility, freezing precipitation
Original CSI Map of Canada
The CSI and Observed
Climate Change (1)
• The original CSI was based on the
climate for 1941-1970 (for 146 stations)
• We now have climate data for 19531995 (for a few stations)
• The recent climate has warmed and
gotten wetter. What has that done to the
CSI?
Recalculation of the CSI
• CSI recalculated for 15 stations using
hourly data for
– 1953-1970 (to compare with original)
– 1953-1980 (to add more recent data)
– 1961-1995 (most recent climate window)
• Using only daily data (because
scenarios of future climate do not
provide hourly data)
The CSI Recalculated
Station
Victoria
Calgary
Toronto
Prince George
Ottawa
Whitehorse
Fort McMurray
Regina
Fort Simpson
Kapuskasing
Yellowknife
St John’s
Iqaluit
Baker Lake
Churchill
Original CSI
1940-1971
15
35
36
38
44
46
46
49
53
55
57
59
76
79
82
Recalculated
1953-1970
hourly
daily
15
16
33
30
32
37
37
36
39
48
40
36
45
43
46
51
47
49
55
58
57
55
59
59
69
70
80
75
83
81
Recalculated
1953-1980
hourly
daily
15
15
32
31
32
37
39
34
39
46
41
36
41
40
46
50
47
47
55
56
53
51
59
60
68
69
75
74
81
78
Recalculated
1961-1990
hourly
daily
14
15
29
28
31
36
33
33
38
45
37
34
38
37
42
45
46
45
53
55
52
50
57
58
69
69
78
78
80
79
The CSI and Future Climate
• CSI calculated on the model grid using
model outputs from one run of the
Canadian CGCM for one scenario of
increasing GHGs and aerosols for
– 1961-1995 (present climate)
– 2010-2039 (the 2020s)
– 2040-2069 (the 2050s)
– 2070-2099 (the 2080s)
CSI 1961-1995
CSI 2010-2039
CSI 2040-2059
CSI 2070-2099
A Scenario of Future CSI
Station
Victoria
Calgary
Toronto
Prince George
Ottawa
Whitehorse
Fort McMurray
Regina
Fort Simpson
Kapuskasing
Yellowknife
St John’s
Iqaluit
Baker Lake
Churchill
Original CSI
15
35
36
38
44
46
46
49
53
55
57
59
76
79
82
2010-2039
14
29
31
35
39
44
43
47
51
52
54
55
72
76
76
2040-2069
12
26
27
29
37
41
40
44
49
49
50
54
71
74
73
2070-2099
15
24
25
24
37
39
41
42
47
46
47
47
64
69
66