Transcript Climate Change in Washington

Impacts of Global Climate
Change on Tribes in Washington
Part 2 Impacts on Salmon
by Robert S. Cole
The Evergreen State College
Impacts of Global Climate Change on
Tribes in Washington (Part 2)
Abstract
This case study is an introduction to the potential impacts of global
climate change on some of the Tribal lands in Washington State. It
explores specifically the impacts of global climate change on the
salmon life cycle. Because salmon have been such an integral part of
indigenous cultures in the Pacific Northwest for thousands of years into
present times, disruption of the salmon life cycle must be taken
seriously. This case explores the impacts of increased air and water
temperatures, of increased winter precipitation with decreased
snowpack, of decreased summer precipitation, on the salmon life cycle.
This case is designed as a ‘clicker case’ to be used in conjunction with
interrupted lecture or interrupted workshop formats of presentation.
The Pacific salmon have been a central part of the
culture and economy of the indigenous peoples of the
Pacific Northwest for thousands of years.
That remains true today.
The health and well-being of salmon stocks have been at
the heart of the Boldt decision (U.S. v. Washington,
1974) and the Martinez decision (U.S. v. Washington,
2007), which affirmed fishing rights for Tribes, and the
centrality of protecting salmon habitat from degradation.
Image courtesy of Phillip Martin
Since the Boldt decision, the Tribes in Washington State
have played a crucial role in salmon management,
salmon research, and salmon habitat restoration.
The Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission (NWIFC)
plays a central role in working on fisheries management
with federal and state agencies and with the Tribes.
The NWIFC has been a major source of quantitative
measurements of salmon distribution and health, and
uses sophisticated data analysis methods.
The NWIFC has taken a leading role in habitat multiple
kinds of restoration projects throughout the Salish Sea
region.
Over the past 200 years, the dominant culture has
inflicted massive habitat degradation for salmon,
including hydroelectric dams on many rivers,
deforestation, alteration of riparian habitat, channeling
rivers and streams, introduction of toxics and other
pollutants, and destruction of estuaries and near-shore
marine kelp beds.
To aid salmon at all stages of the salmon life cycle, Tribal
peoples, along with federal and state agencies and
numerous environmental organizations have invested
significant time and effort to help restore riparian habitat,
estuaries and near-shore environments, and eliminate
sources of toxics and pollution.
Climate change may have an impact on the
salmon life cycle in ways that are fundamentally
different from the habitat destruction of the past
200 years.
At a meeting of Tribal, federal, state, and
academic people interested the impacts of
global climate change on the salmon life cycle in
Washington, several presenters showed some
slides of likely scenarios. This case examines
some of the issues that are of direct interest to
anyone who cares about healthy salmon habitat
and healthy salmon runs:
Impact on salmon of increased air and water temperatures;
Impact on salmon of altered precipitation patterns;
Impact on salmon of altered stream and river hydrology;
CQ #1: Based on your current knowledge, which
statement is closest to your thoughts about the
impact on salmon of global climate change?
A.
The impact on salmon, if any, will be small compared
to natural changes that have occurred before.
B.
The impact on salmon will be minor, but won’t cause
major disruptions to the salmon life-cycle.
C.
The impact on salmon will be significant, and will alter
the salmon life-cycle.
D.
The impact on salmon will be catastrophic and will
eliminate the species from streams and rivers in
Washington.
The Climate Impacts Group at the University
of Washington predicts that:
• There will be a rise in average temperature throughout the 21st
century;
• There will be sea level rise in the Puget Sound region throughout
the 21st century;
• There will be a significant alteration of the hydrological cycle in the
Pacific Northwest throughout the 21st century;
• All of this will have substantial impact on the salmon runs, timber
production, hydroelectric energy production, agriculture, and land
areas close to sea level.
http://cses.washington.edu/cig/
Here are three graphs related to air
temperatures in the Pacific Northwest that
the Climate Impacts Group has
assembled:
Average temperature could increase beyond the year-to-year variability
observed in the PNW during the 20th century as early as the 2020s
PNW climate change
Accelerated warming
+2 °F by 2020, 3 °F
by 2040 (relative to
1970-1999)
Rate of increase is 1.5-6
times faster than during 20th
century
Possibly more warming
in summer than winter
Precipitation variability
continues
2020s
Temperature
Precip
Low
0.7F (0.4C)
- 4%
Average
1.9F (1.1C)
+ 2%
High
3.2F (1.8C)
+ 6%
2040s
Temperature
Precip
Low
1.4F (0.8C)
- 4%
Average
2.9F (1.6C)
+ 2%
High
4.6F (2.6C)
+ 9%
All changes are benchmarked to average temperature and
precipitation for 1970-1999
PNW Temperature Trends by Station
Average annual temperature
increased +1.5F in the PNW
during the 20th century
• Almost every station
shows warming
Cooler Warmer
3.6 °F
Annual
variability
2.7 °F
present
throughout1.8 °F
the warming
0.9 °F
trend
• Extreme cold conditions
have become rarer
• Low temperatures rose
faster than high
temperatures
Mote 2003(a)
CQ #2: Based on your understanding of the above
slides, what do you think best describes the local
consequences of local air temperature change on the
salmon in local streams?
A.
B.
C.
D.
Air temperature rise will not affect salmon, because
they don’t live in the air.
Air temperature rise will have minimal effect on salmon
because salmon can thrive in a range of different
temperatures.
Air temperature rise will have a detrimental effect on
salmon because stream water temperatures will rise
along with the air temperature.
Air temperature rise will stop the salmon altogether
from swimming upstream.
Here are some
upper limits of
water temperature
that various
species of
salmon can
withstand.
Here are the
historical
temperatures
in August.
Shaded areas:
Air temperatures
Circles: maximum
stream temperatures
Here are the anticipated
August temperatures
with two different models
(A1B and B1) of
greenhouse gas
accumulation.
Shaded areas:
Air temperatures
Circles: Maximum
stream temperatures
Here are the anticipated
increases in weekly
maximum stream
temperatures.
Here are the anticipated
average number of weeks
per year that stream
temperatures exceed
21˚C (70˚F).
Discussion
Given the slides that you’ve seen, spend a few
minutes discussing the impact of increasing
water temperatures on salmon.
What types of streamside management might
help minimize stream water warming?
The Climate Impacts Group
at the University of
Washington has said that
expected 21st century
changes in temperature and
precipitation will transform
the hydrologic behavior of
many mountain watersheds
in the West.
The next slide shows some of the
projections:
Trends in Spring Runoff
Peak of spring runoff is
moving earlier into the spring
throughout western US and
Canada
• Advances of 10-30 days
between 1948-2000
• Greatest trends in PNW,
Canada, and AK
• >30% of trends are
statistically significant at the
90% level, especially in the
PNW
+ 20 days later
- 20 days earlier
Stewart, I., Cayan, D.R., and Dettinger, M.D., 2004, Changes in snowmelt runoff timing in western North America
under a "Business as Usual" climate change scenario: Climatic Change 62, 217-232.
CQ #3: Based on your understanding of the
above slide, which statement best
characterizes the impact of trends in spring
runoff on the salmon life-cycle?
A.
B.
C.
D.
Earlier spring runoff will have no discernable effect on
the salmon life cycle.
Earlier spring runoff will aid salmon in returning earlier
to the rivers.
Earlier spring runoff may disrupt the salmon life cycle.
Earlier spring runoff will destroy the salmon life cycle.
Shifts in Streamflow
Simulated average runoff for the Puget Sound Basin
Summer (AprilSept) streamflow
decreases ~21%
Winter (Oct-Mar)
streamflow increases
~25%
CQ #4: Based on your understanding of the
above two slides, which statement best
characterizes the impact of shifts in winter
streamflow on the salmon life-cycle?
A.
B.
C.
D.
Shifts in winter streamflow will have no discernable
effect on the salmon life cycle.
Shifts in winter streamflow will aid salmon in returning
earlier in the fall to the rivers.
Shifts in winter streamflow will may harm salmon eggs
because of increased flooding.
Shifts in winter streamflow will destroy the salmon life
cycle.
Discussion
Discuss in small groups what effect increased
streamflow in the winter months might have on
the salmon life-cycle.
Shifts in Streamflow
Simulated average runoff for the Puget Sound Basin
Summer (AprilSept) streamflow
decreases ~21%
Winter (Oct-Mar)
streamflow increases
~25%
CQ #5: Based on your understanding of the
above two slides, which statement best
characterizes the impact of shifts in summer
streamflow on the salmon life-cycle?
A.
B.
C.
D.
Shifts in summer streamflow will have no discernable
effect on the salmon life cycle.
Shifts in summer streamflow will aid salmon in
returning earlier in the fall to the rivers.
Shifts in summer streamflow will may harm salmon
smolt trying to get downstream.
Shifts in summer streamflow will completely destroy
the salmon life cycle.
Discussion
Discuss in small groups what effect decreased
streamflow in the summer months might have
on the salmon life-cycle.
Trends in Snow Water Equivalent
• Most PNW stations show a
decline in snow water
equivalent
• Numerous sites in the
Cascades with 30% to 60%
declines
• Similar trends seen
throughout the western
United States - 73% of
stations show a decline in
April 1 snow water
equivalent
Decrease Increase
Decrease Increase
Main Impact: Less Snow
Spring snowpack will decline as more winter precipitation falls as
rain rather than snow, particularly in transient (mid-elevation) basins
~2050s
+4°F,
+4.5%
winter
precip
Impacts on Water Resources
Less snow, earlier melt:
 More water in winter
 Less water in summer
 Increased winter flooding in many
Higher temperatures:
• decreased winter electricity
demand
• increased summer water &
electricity demand
 Negative impacts on hydropower
river basins
 Increased summer drought
frequency
production, irrigation water supply,
instream flow protection
 More stress on urban water
supplies
Bottom line:
Increased competition for water and increased vulnerability to drought
Salmon Impacted Across Full Life-Cycle
Flood
s
Early
peak
flows
Warm, low
streamflow
??
Observed changes in natural
systems (20th century)
The extent and thickness of Arctic sea-ice is declining (extent is
down 10-15%; thickness is down 40%)
Permafrost is thawing (with major
implications for the region and the globe)
The growing season has lengthened 1-4 days per decade
during the last 40 years in the Northern Hemisphere,
especially at northern latitudes – earlier spring & later fall
Observed 20th Century Changes
Plant and animal ranges are shifting northward and to
higher elevations
In the Northern Hemisphere,
plants are flowering earlier,
birds are arriving earlier, insects
are emerging earlier
The frequency of coral bleaching is increasing, particularly
during El Niño events
Mid-elevation mountain snowpack is in decline and
melting earlier. Glaciers are in widespread retreat.
Nearly every glacier
in the Cascades and
Olympics has retreated
during the past 50-150
years
South Cascade Glacier,
1928 (top) and
2000 (right)
Photos courtesy of Dr. Ed Josberger, USGS
Glacier Group, Tacoma, WA
Discussion
Given the slides that you’ve seen, spend a few
minutes discussing the possible approaches that
the Tribes might take to get federal, state, and
local governments more involved in taking steps
to minimize the danger to salmon in the Pacific
Northwest.
Questions to Consolidate Your Learning
CQ #1: Based on your current knowledge, which
statement is closest to your thoughts about the
impact on salmon of global climate change?
A.
The impact on salmon, if any, will be small compared
to natural changes that have occurred before.
B.
The impact on salmon will be minor, but won’t cause
major disruptions to the salmon life-cycle.
C.
The impact on salmon will be significant, and will alter
the salmon life-cycle.
D.
The impact on salmon will be catastrophic and will
eliminate the species from streams and rivers in
Washington.
CQ #2: Based on your understanding of the above
slides, what do you think best describes the local
consequences of local air temperature change on the
salmon in local streams?
A.
B.
C.
D.
Air temperature rise will not affect salmon, because
they don’t live in the air.
Air temperature rise will have minimal effect on salmon
because salmon can thrive in a range of different
temperatures.
Air temperature rise will have a detrimental effect on
salmon because stream water temperatures will rise
along with the air temperature.
Air temperature rise will stop the salmon altogether
from swimming upstream.
CQ #3: Based on your understanding of the
above slide, which statement best
characterizes the impact of trends in spring
runoff on the salmon life-cycle?
A.
B.
C.
D.
Earlier spring runoff will have no discernable effect on
the salmon life cycle.
Earlier spring runoff will aid salmon in returning earlier
to the rivers.
Earlier spring runoff may disrupt the salmon life cycle.
Earlier spring runoff will destroy the salmon life cycle.
CQ #4: Based on your understanding of the
above two slides, which statement best
characterizes the impact of shifts in winter
streamflow on the salmon life-cycle?
A.
B.
C.
D.
Shifts in winter streamflow will have no discernable
effect on the salmon life cycle.
Shifts in winter streamflow will aid salmon in returning
earlier in the fall to the rivers.
Shifts in winter streamflow will may harm salmon eggs
because of increased flooding.
Shifts in winter streamflow will destroy the salmon life
cycle.
CQ #5: Based on your understanding of the
above two slides, which statement best
characterizes the impact of shifts in summer
streamflow on the salmon life-cycle?
A.
B.
C.
D.
Shifts in summer streamflow will have no discernable
effect on the salmon life cycle.
Shifts in summer streamflow will aid salmon in
returning earlier in the fall to the rivers.
Shifts in summer streamflow will may harm salmon
smolt trying to get downstream.
Shifts in summer streamflow will completely destroy
the salmon life cycle.
References
Excellent documents regarding climate change in general, and the potential effects on the hydrology of
streams and rivers in Washington in particular, can be found at the website of the Climate Impacts
Group at the University of Washington http://cses.washington.edu/cig/ (accessed May 20, 2011).
Information, research results, and data bases are constantly changing, and this site, along with the
IPCC site (IPCC 2007, below) are among the most credible. The website of the northwest Indian
Fisheries Commission, http://nwifc.org/, is excellent. Also listed are two very fine books describing
many features of the salmon life cycle.
Bell 1996, Pacific Salmon: From Egg to Exit, Gordon Bell, Hanncock House Publishers, 1996,
ISBN 0-88839-379-2
IPCC 2007, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007 – Synthesis Report,
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization
(WMO), http://www.ipcc.ch/ (accessed May 22, 2011)
Quinn 2005, The Behavior and Ecology of Pacific Salmon and Trout, Thomas P. Quinn, University of
Washington Press, 2005, ISBN 0-295-98457-0
Wolf & Zuckerman 1999, Salmon Nation, Edward C. Wolf and Seth Zuckerman, editors, Ecotrust 1999,
ISBN 0-9676364-0-X The opening article, “Recalling Celilo,” by Elizabeth Woody is excellent.
References
The following websites contain a wealth of information regarding
Tribal actions to improve salmon habitat:
National Congress of American Indians, http://www.ncai.org/
Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission, http://nwifc.org/
The Affiliated Tribes of Northwest Indians, http://www.atnitribes.org/
Columbia River Intertribal Fish Commission, http://www.critfc.org/
The National Tribal Environmental Council, http://www.ntec.org/
Wild Salmon Center, http://www.wildsalmoncenter.org/
Ecotrust, http://www.ecotrust.org/
For Further Study
An excellent series of case studies that explores different
aspects of salmon and Tribal peoples can be found at the
website of the Enduring Legacies Native Case Studies
Project:
http://nativecases.evergreen.edu/collection/themes/salmon.html