Transcript UNDP-GEF Adaptation

Climate Change and Human
Development
On-line Course for Journalists
on Climate Change and Human Development
© 2007 UNDP. All Rights Reserved Worldwide.
Proprietary and Confidential. Not For Distribution Without Prior Written Permission.
Workshop overview
Climate Change: A General Introduction
Part 1
The Long View: Climate Change and Past Human
Development
The Science of Climate Change: Anthropogenic impacts
Climate Change in Europe and the CIS region
The Economics of Climate Change
International Climate Change negotiations
Cases against Pro-active Climate Risk Management
Adaptation and Mitigations are complementary strategies
Part 2
UNDP MDG Carbon Facility
Part 3
2007 Human Development Report
Part 4
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Part I
Climate Change:
A General Introduction
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Chapter 1.1
The Long View:
Climate Change and Past Human Development
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Long-term climate variability
The Earth’s climate changes on timescales of days to many millennia
Past ~2.5 million years:
• Ice age cycle every ~100,000 years, driven by changes in Earth’s orbit
• Temp. change of up to ~6-7º C globally between cold ice age & warm interglacial
• Human beings evolved against backdrop of glacial-interglacial oscillations
• Humans have experienced a world up to ~6º C cooler than at present
• Humans have experienced a world up to ~1.5º C warmer than at present
Pillar of lake sediment, in central Sahara, Libya
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Civilisation and climate change
Holocene Climatic Optimum
• 10,000–5,000 yrs ago, arid belt of northern hemisphere was humid
• Greater summer heating – more intense monsoon in today’s deserts
• Sahara, Western Asia, South Asia, northern China wetter
• Globally, temperatures little different from today (<0.4° C higher)
Role of climatic crises
• Humid period interrupted by periodic climatic crises - agriculture
• ~6,000 yrs ago: shift towards aridity with cold arid crisis - partial recovery
• ~5,200 yrs ago: final collapse of monsoons in many areas
Civilisation as adaptation
• First civilisations emerge in areas facing environmental crisis
 populations squeezed into remain productive areas - river valleys
 increase in competition, social inequality, social stratification
 cities & states emerge as product of adaptation to increase aridity
 need to secure territory, manage populations, intensify food production
• 4,200 years ago a further arid crisis devastates Egypt and Mesopotamia
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Lessons for development
Humanity has co-evolved with a dynamic climate
• Climate change drives innovation, via crisis & disruption
Recent development has assumed a static climate
Development accommodates seasonal changes and extreme events with
return periods of years to (in some cases) decades, but tends to ignore
variability on decadal and longer timescales: e.g.
– building on flood plains
–
–
–
–
development on dynamic shorelines
expansion of agriculture into historically marginal areas (e.g. Sahel)
development that ignores longer-term climate variability increases vulnerability
complications of increasing levels of poverty
• Civilisation emerged during the last great global climatic upheaval
• Since then, the global climate has remained relative stable
• This period of stability is over
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Chapter 1.2
The Science of Climate Change:
Anthropogenic Impacts
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Greenhouse gas concentrations are rising
•
Increase since ~1750 due to industrial activity
•
Rapid rise over past 50 years
•
Atmospheric CO2 concentration has remained
below 300 ppm for at least past 600,000 years
•
Now at 380 ppm and rising
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Source: IPCC (2007) 9 9
Temperatures are rising
Source: IPCC (2007)
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Global temperatures over the past 1,200 years
Source: Science, 10 February 2005
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Attributing climate change to human activity
Natural + anthropogenic forcing
Natural forcing only
Global mean surface temperature anomalies from observations (black) as as
simulated by a variety of global climate models.
Source: IPCC (2007)
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A2 SRES Scenario
Future emissions and warming scenarios
Strong regional economic growth and no
capping of greenhouse gas emissions:
By 2100
Doubling
- GHG concentrations of 700-1,000 ppm
- Temperature rise of 2°-6° C
EU Guardrail
Doubling
EU Guardrail
EU proposes keeping global temperature increase
below 2º C to avoid “dangerous” climate change
- Almost certain to exceed this “guardrail” value
- Stabilisation below 550 ppm unlikely
- Likely 2°C by 2050 and 3°C by 2100
Last time global temperature was 3°C above
pre-industrial value: 3 million years ago
For higher temperatures, must go back tens of
millions of years – no past analogue of future
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Projected temperature and precipitation changes
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Source: IPCC (2007) 1414
European heat wave, 2003
Distribution of summer (average) temperatures in Switzerland from 1864-2003
Heat wave was associated with widespread mortality, especially elderly
Average temperature during 2003 heat wave was 22°C, far outside recorded
range (mean value 17°C). Such an event very unlikely in the context of
historical climate variability.
Estimated that probability of an extreme summer such as that of 2003 has more
than doubled as a consequence of human-induced climate change.
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Past, present and future sea level
Conservative estimate?
• 1990s: fastest recorded rise at 4mm per year
• Future increases likely to be similar or greater
• Longer term: ≥ 1m per century very plausible
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Source: IPCC (2007) 1616
Chapter 1.3
Climate Change in Europe and
the CIS Region
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Recent Observed Trends
Drought in Central and Western Asia 1999-2003
• Most of affected area semi-arid steppe with winter & early spring precipitation
• Precipitation between 1998-2001 less than 55% of long-term regional average
• Drought exacerbated by early snow-melt and higher temperatures
• Intensity of rainfall and drought-hardened ground led to flash floods
• Prolonged La Niña & unusually warm W. Pacific & E. Indian Ocean played role
• Consistent with projections of increased rainfall variability & intensity, more
frequent drought, decline in snow and ice cover
Drying trends in South & South-East Europe
• Southern & south-eastern Europe have become drier by up to 20% (past century)
• Frequency of “very wet” days has decreased in southern Europe (past century)
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Key Vulnerabilities in Europe
TU: Tundra
BO: Boreal
AT: Atlantic
CE: Central
MT: Mountains
ME: Mediterranean
ST: Steppe
SLR: Sea-level rise
NAO: N. Atl. Oscil.
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Source: IPCC (2007)
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Summary of impacts: Europe
• 1º - 5.5º C increase for Europe as a whole by 2100, for low-high emissions scenarios
• Warming greatest over E. Europe in winter, W. & S. Europe in summer
• Yearly maximum temperatures expected to increase most in S. & central Europe
• Some E. European countries expected to experience same no. of hot days as present-day S. Europe
• More year-to-year variability, & more heat waves & drought - dry periods increase by 2100 in E. Europe
• Deflection of summer storms - decrease of precipitation of 30-45% in central Europe in summer
• More Atlantic cyclone activity - more precipitation & strong winds over central Europe in winter
• Increase in intensity of daily precipitation, even where trend is one of drying
• Increased flood risk in eastern and central Europe
• Increase in winter flows and decrease (of up to 50%) in summer flows for Rhine, Slovakian rivers, Volga
• Increased irrigation demand, greatest in central & eastern Europe
• Surface runoff reduced by 20-30% in south-eastern Europe
• By 2070s, 100-year droughts return every 50 years or less
• Decreases in crop productivity in Mediterranean, south-west Balkans, southern European Russia
• Decreased demand for winter heating, increased demand for summer cooling
• More heat-related deaths, fewer cold-related deaths
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Source: IPCC (2007)
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Climate change impacts in north-eastern Asia
• Impacts on infrastructure &
transport
• Reduction in Arctic sea ice
• Impacts on carbon cycle
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Source: IPCC (2007)
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Summary of impacts: Central Asia & Russia
Central Asia
• Median warming of 3.7º C, modest seasonal variation
• Median annual precipitation decrease of 3%: +4% in winter, -13% in summer (dry season)
• Grasslands productivity reduced (10-30% projected for Mongolia) - livestock impacts
• Expansion of steppe and desert steppe, possible reduction in available agricultural land
• Northward shift of agricultural zones, shrinking of high mountainous zones and forest steppe
• Crop yields down by up to 30% (HadCM2 modelling studies with CO2 fertilisation)
• More frequent mudflow and avalanches
• Changes in runoff might affect hydropower generation (e.g. Tajikistan)
Russian Federation
• Increased forest productivity in north, but more forest fires
• Lena river delta retreating at 3.6-4.5 m/yr
• Reduced grassland productivity& northward shift - impacts on milk yield & animal health
• Low river flow events possibly more frequent in crop growing regions of south-west
• Permafrost melting, affecting bearing capacity, exploitability (excavation, mining), subsidence
• Increases in malaria & tick-borne encephalitis already reported
• Extreme high temperatures may affect mortality (may be offset by warmer winter temperatures)
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Chapter 1.4
The Economics of Climate Change
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Mitigation vs adaptation
Global climate change: change in mean global
temperature, changes in regional temperature, rainfall,
pressure, circulation etc
Mitigation:
reduce
emissions,
reducing
magnitude
of CC
Greenhouse
gas emissions
Climate change
impacts
Adaptation:
reduce
vulnerability
to CC
impacts,
reducing
losses
Adaptation and mitigation are complementary strategies
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Climate change impacts in a carbon-intensive world
CO2 concentration
does NOT stabilize.
Future warming – carbon intensive world (adapted
from IPCC TAR WGI)
Avoided damages from climate change
Stern (2006): 1% of global GDP/a: stabilisation at 550 ppm
CO2e by 2050; 5-20% of global GDP/a if unmitigated
(warming of 5C or more).
IPCC (2007): 3% of global GDP/a: stabilisation at 445-710ppm
CO2e by 2030
Nordhaus (2007): 3% of global GDP/a: stabilisation at 685ppm
by 2100
• What is dangerous climate change?
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Cost of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions
Costs of mitigation depend on:
1. Abatement technology used
2. Location of abatement
3. Scale of deployment of technology
Where the global GHG emissions cap is set and who is allowed
to trade will affect 1,2 and 3.
Stabilising at 550 ppm/2C implies carbon price of $35/tC
•Nordhaus: $129.5 t C (685 ppm by 2100)
•Stern: $314 t C (BAU)
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Paying for adaptation
Costs of adaptation
World Bank: $9 bn - $41 bn/a
Oxfam: <$50 bn/a (US and EU: 75% of bill)
Increases in ODA in the pipeline. Liability or opportunity?
•Total ODA in 2005: US$106.8 billion.
•Scaling up to $50 billion/a by 2010 (G8)
•Scaling up to $66 billion/a by 2015 (EU 15, 0.7% GNI)
Adaptation could displace MDG investments. Need to seek
additional resources for adaptation and to protect planned
ODA.
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Benefits from adaptation
1. Reduced damage to economy:
Flood control in China: B/C = 4 (1960-2000)
Flood proofing roads Bangladesh: 1.62 (2000-2025)
Flood proofing homesteads, Chars Bangladesh: 1.4 (2000 –
2025)
(Stern Review, DFID 2006)
2. Higher productivity levels:
Mali Sorghum yields: +6 to + 56% yield
Mali Pearl Millet yields: +13 to +57%
Recorded malaria cases in Botswana 10 times lower in 2005-6
than in 1996-7.
(IRI 2006)
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Adaptation and residual risk
Stern Review, 2006
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Chapter 1.5
International Climate Change negotiations
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Climate change entered the policy radar in 1979
1979
First World Climate Conference
1988
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) created
1990
IPCC First Assessment Report: scientific basis for UNFCCC
1992 (June)
UNFCCC adopted at Rio Earth Summit
1994 (May)
UNFCCC enters into force
1995
First Conference of the Parties (COP 1), Berlin
1997
COP 3, Kyoto: Kyoto Protocol adopted
1998
COP 4, Buenos Aires: Buenos Aires Plan of Action
2000
COP 6, The Hague: Talks on Plan of Action break down
2001 (July)
2001 (October)
COP 6 “bis” resumes in Bonn
COP 7, Marrakech: Marrakech Accords
2002
COP 8, Delhi: Delhi Declaration
2004
COP 10, Buenos Aires
2005 (February)
Kyoto Protocol enters into force
2006
COP 12, Nairobi: Nairobi Work Programme
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The Convention clearly links climate change to development
Convention objective
achieve stabilization
of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the
atmosphere at a
low enough level to
prevent “dangerous
anthropogenic
Interference” with
the climate system
• allow ecosystems to
adapt naturally to
to climate change;
within
timeframe
sufficient to
• ensure food production
is not threatened; and
• enable economic
development to
proceed sustainably
UNFCCC signed by 191 Parties – near universal membership
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Each Convention body has specialised role
Conference of the Parties (COP)
• highest decision-making authority of the UNFCCC
Subsidiary Body for Scientific & Technological Advice (SBSTA)
• provides link between scientific information and policy needs of COP
Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI)
• advises on implementation issues
Global Environment Facility (GEF)
• financial mechanism of the UNFCCC
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
• three working groups contribute to Assessment Reports
• First Assessment Report (AR1) in 1990 served as basis for UNFCCC
• AR2 (1995); AR3 (2001); AR4 (2007)
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The Convention clusters countries in three groups
“Common, but differentiated responsibilities”
Annex I
Annex II
Non-Annex I
Industrialised
countries &
Economies in
Transition (EITs)
Industrialised
countries
Developing
countries
• Adopt policies
and measures with
aim of reducing GHG
emissions to 1990
levels
• EITs have “flexibility”
in implementing
commitments
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• Provide financial
resources to enable
developing countries to:
• mitigate
• adapt
• Promote and facilitate
technology transfer to
EITs and non-Annex I
Parties
• COP identifies
activities to address
non-Annex I needs
and concerns
• no quantitative
obligations
• Least Developed
Countries given
special consideration
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The Kyoto Protocol
• Entry into force on 16 February 2005
• 174 Parties, 1 regional economic organisation (June 2007)
• Commitment period: 2008 – 2012
Main features
• Legally binding targets for emissions of six major greenhouse
gases
in industrialised countries during first commitment period
• New international market-based instruments creating a new
commodity: carbon
• Facilitate sustainable development and additional support to
developing countries on adaptation
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Several key issues remain at centre of climate negotiations
1. Engaging non-Annex I countries in mitigation efforts
– particularly China and India
2. Engaging US and Australia in Kyoto Protocol
– US is responsible for 20%-25% of global emissions
3. Funding for adaptation (impacts are already occurring)
4. Establishing new emission reduction targets (post-2012)
– voluntary or mandatory?
– absolute or relative?
– sectoral targets?
5. Role of sinks (LULUCF → REED)
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Issue 1: Future emissions growth will come from today’s developing countries
Developed and developing country emissions currently about equal…
… but developing countries have around 85% of total population
Where FSU = former Soviet Union
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Issue 2: Engaging the US and Australia in the Kyoto Protocol
Issue 3: Countries least responsible for climate change are most vulnerable
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Result: UNFCCC negotiations are dominated by a few key positions
United States
• climate change is longterm problem
• premature to think about
post-2012 framework
• focus on technologies
that provide reductions in
20-30 years, not binding
targets and timetables
Asia Pacific Partnership (2006)
US, Australia, India, Japan, China,
South Korea
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European Union
• climate change is urgent issue
• chance to avoid dangerous
interference could be lost in next
10 to 20 years
• need binding targets & timetables
Developing countries (G77)
• climate change urgent issue
• developed countries are
responsible and must act first
• priority is development,
poverty reduction
• need climatefriendly technologies
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All sectors and regions have the potential to contribute
Note: estimates do not include non-technical options such as lifestyle changes
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Chapter 1.6
Cases Against Pro-Active
Climate Risk Management
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Contrarians
Since the late 1980s, a well-coordinated, well-funded campaign by contrarian scientists,
free-market think tanks and some elements in industry has argued that we should not worry
about climate change. There are three fundamental positions taken by the contrarians:
1.
The climate is not changing
2.
The climate is changing, but this is part of a natural process
3.
Human-induced climate change is real, but we should not worry about it
The arguments against action have not been consistent - they
have evolved as it becomes more difficult to deny the science
“…could it be that man-made global warming is the greatest hoax
ever perpetrated on the American people? It sure sounds like it.”
(Sen. J. Inhofe, Oklahoma)
“…the Left's best excuse for increasing government control over
our actions in ways both large and small …the ideal scare
campaign for those who hate capitalism and love big government…
anti-American, anti-capitalist, and anti-human”
(Christopher C. Horner, Competitive Enterprise Institute)
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Contrarian Position 1: The climate is not changing
Assertions
1.
Global warming is an invention of environmentalists - it is a hoax
2.
There is no scientific consensus on climate change
3.
IPCC and climate scientists are alarmist
Realities
1.
Manmade climate change is the only current satisfactory explanation for
observed trends in climate

Evidence for warming comes from a huge variety of sources - nearly
all parts of the world exhibit warming trends

Basic physics tells us that increasing greenhouse gas concentrations
will lead to warming: both have been observed

Modelling only reproduces observations if includes GHG emissions
2.
The scientific consensus is extremely strong - while there is uncertainty and
disagreement about many potential impacts, the vast majority of climate
scientists accept that human activity is influencing climate
3.
IPCC is conservative in many respects, limiting itself to quantifiable science
(e.g. sea-level projections). Science is subject to rigorous peer review
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Contrarian Position 2: Climate change is real, but is not caused by human activity
Assertions
1.
Climate has always changed. Climate change is nothing new.
2.
Past warming has been as great or greater than that we are experiencing today
3.
Past warming has preceded increases in greenhouse gas concentrations
4.
The observed warming has been caused by an increase in the sun’s output
5.
Climate models do not include effects of changes in solar output, volcanoes, etc
Realities
1.
Sooner or later we will have to face significant natural climate change regardless of greenhouse gas
emissions, but left alone the climate is likely to remain stable for many centuries or even millennia.
2.
Global temperature probably comparable to today during last interglacial ~110,000 years ago.
Medieval warm period appears to have been a regional, not a global, warming. Projected temperatures
for late 20th century higher than any time during last 3 million years, possibly 10s of millions of years.
3.
Yes, but the mechanisms were different (orbital) and greenhouse gases then amplified warming
4.
There is evidence for a solar impact on climate in the past, but the recent effects of changes solar
output is small compared with that of greenhouse gases, and recent observed solar changes are in the
wrong direction to explain increased global temperatures
5.
Wrong - climate models include many “forcings”, including solar, aerosols, volcanoes, etc
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Argument 3: Climate change is real, and is caused by human activity, but we should
not worry about it
Assertions
1.
Climate change will not be as bad as expected - risks have been exaggerated
2.
We will adapt to climate change, as people adapted to past changes
3.
Climate change is good - warmer conditions & more CO2 will green the world
4.
Climate change will stimulate innovation and drive progress
5.
The costs of mitigation will outweigh the costs of adaptation
Realities
1.
Models have trouble representing abrupt changes such as those known to have
occurred in the past - may underestimate risks
2.
There are limits to, and constraints on, adaptation
3.
Warming of ~2-3°C may increase productivity of some crops/plants, but this will be
offset by drought, extremes etc, & will not be sustained for higher temperatures
4.
Climate change stimulates social change, but this often involves large-scale
disruption to societies, and changes emerge after transitional crisis periods.
5.
Adaptation cost estimates are few, and tend to assume gradual, low-magnitude
changes. Uncertainty in impacts means that costs cannot be predicted. Where
adaptation is not possible, losses are inevitable.
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Growing the world economy today to better address climate change tomorrow
“…The elaborate and expensive actions
now being considered to stop global
warming will cost hundreds of billions of
dollars, are often based on emotional
rather than strictly scientific
assumptions, and may very well have
little impact on the world’s temperature
for hundreds of years.”
Rather than starting with the most
radical procedures, Lomborg argues we
should first focus resources on more
immediate concerns, such as fighting
malaria and HIV/AIDS and assuring and
maintaining a safe, fresh water supply –
activities “which can be addressed at a
fraction of the cost and save millions of
lives within our lifetime.”
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