Transcript Regional poverty practice 30 November 2012 Agenda

Employment in Southeast Europe:
Challenges and opportunities
Ben Slay
Senior advisor, UNDP Regional Bureau for Europe and CIS
Skopje
16 April 2015
1
Employment: Particular challenge for
Southeast Europe
60%
Share of population
aged 15 and above
that is employed
55%
50%
BiH, FYRoM, MNE, SRB
45%
Albania, Turkey
Western CIS
40%
Caucasus
35%
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
World Bank data, UNDP calculations (unweighted averages).
Central Asia
2
Probing deeper—Employment
rates by ethnicity, gender
National
39%
42%
Roma
39%
Roma women
38%
27%
26%
21%
23%
16%
13%
10%
8%
Serbia
Montenegro
Moldova
FYRoM
Sources: World Bank world development indicators, UNDP/EU/WB Roma database. 2011 data.
3
Causes, consequences, questions
• Prof. Arandarenko offers four inter-linked
causes and consequences:
1)
2)
3)
4)
Emigration
Informality
Weak private sectors
Public sector wage premia
• Questions:
– Do these explain low employment, or other
development challenges (poverty, inequality)?
– Don’t Central Asia, Caucasus have these problems
too (or at least (1), (2), and (3))?
4
Challenges: No magic bullets—just
necessary conditions
Growth policies
All three
legs are
needed
Employment
policies
Employment
programming,
projects
5
Different parts of this triangle have
been emphasized at different times
• Initial emphasis on “getting the growth
framework right” (1st leg)
– Macroeconomic stabilization
– Liberalization of prices, commerce
– Privatization/private sector development
• Anticipated result: “A rising tide that lifts all
boats”
– Often linked to post-conflict recovery
• BUT: resulting growth was often “jobless”
6
This gave rise to growing emphasis on
labour market policies (2nd leg)
• BUT: No agreement on “right” policies
– At the level of declarations, every country wants to
support the demand for labour, to improve the
quality and adequacy of labour supply, and to assist
labour market integration and social inclusion of
those who are most vulnerable. But, at the level of
objectives and actions, there are significant
disagreements. – Prof. Mihail Arandarenko
• Result: There’s no common approach for fixing
the region’s labour market problems
7
Opportunities: A new approach,
based on two elements
• Greater focus on the third leg—programmes and
projects in SEE that:
–
–
–
–
Are working
Can be scaled up
Can be replicated in other countries
Can be supported:
• Under IPA II
• By national governments
• Strengthening the policy (second leg) role of:
– Integrated approaches
– Green economy, employment policies
8
Integrated approaches
• Opportunities (and challenges) of:
– Better measuring employment trends
– More closely aligning active labour market
policies with policies for
•
•
•
•
•
Social protection, inclusion
Education
Regional development
Natural resource management
Disaster risk reduction
• Needed: institutional
development
Economic
growth
Social
development
Environmental
sustainability
Institutional development agenda:
Governance reform for partnerships
• Between state bodies:
– Vocational training
institutions
– Employment offices
– Sub-national
governments
• Private sector:
– On-the-job training
– Job creation
• Third sector (CSOs):
– Civic engagement/
social mobilization
– Project cycle
management expertise
• Within the state
sector—getting right
mix of:
– Decentralization
– Deconcentration
– Recentralization
10
Green economy, green jobs
• Growing body of evidence shows employment
benefits of investments in:
– Energy efficiency, renewables
– Waste management
– Ecotourism
• “Fiscal space” can be broadened by:
– Reductions in fossil fuel subsidies
– “Green procurement” policies
– Higher taxes/fees on carbon emissions, water use
(“environmental bads”)
• These instruments can also finance reductions in
taxes on labour—boosting employment overall
11
Thank you
very much!
[email protected]