Transcript US Foreign in the Age of Obama

US Foreign Policy in the
Age of Obama
Renewal, Return, and Continuity
Michael Baun
Valdosta State University
Hope
Key determinants of a nation’s
foreign policy:
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basic national interests
personality, beliefs, character of leadership
domestic politics (demands, constraints)
domestic institutions (constraints)
actual international situation (constraints,
opportunities, events)
• power and capacities: “hard” – military and
economic; and “soft” – international
alliances, institutions, legitimacy
US basic national interests:
• security
• prosperity
• democracy
Obama’s values = key principles
of US foreign policy:
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inclusion (vs. division)
multilateralism (vs. unilateralism)
soft power (vs. hard power)
respect (interests of others)
pragmatism (vs. ideology)
professional competence (vs. ideology, personal
loyalty)
• strategic thinking
Domestic politics
Mood of Americans:
• weary of war
• skeptical that US action to change things
• want to restore US global image
• priority on fixing domestic economy
Domestic institutional
constraints
• separation of powers (Congress)
• electoral cycle – 2010 congressional; 2012
presidential elections
Actual international situation
• inherited problems (Bush legacy)
• unanticipated or anticipated events
Power and capacities
• “hard power” – military capacity
• “soft power” – international alliances,
institutions, and legitimacy
Iraq
• responsible withdrawal; all “combat” forces
by August 2010 (35-50,000 troops
remaining); all US forces must be out by
end of 2011 (US-Iraqi agreement)
• comprehensive regional agreement?
Middle East
• renewed engagement
• negotiations on two-state solution
• more balanced US position (more
pressure on Israel)
• consultations with all interested parties –
Hamas?
• regional approach – negotiations with
Syria
Iran
• stop nuclear weapons program
• open to direct negotiations; cooperation on
Afghanistan?
• bigger “carrots” (WTO membership,
investment, normalized diplomatic
relations) and “sticks” (tougher sanctions,
military option)
• more cooperation with Russia and China
“Afpak”
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biggest foreign policy problem
the “right war”
more troops (17,000 in February) – more later?
bigger European contributions – economic and
civil support
missile and special ops strikes into Pakistan;
negotiate with moderate Taliban?
more limited goals
problem of destabilization of Pakistan
(“nightmare scenario”)
more economic and military aid to Pakistan
China
• most important US bilateral relationship for
future
• deal with China’s rise – integrate into
global system as “responsible stakeholder”
• broaden focus from financial/economic
relations: climate change, energy, regional
and global security, global governance
• downplay democracy and human rights
Russia
• hit “reset button” on US-Russia relations
• “grand bargain”?
missile defense, arms control (START),
European security, respect for Russian interests
in “near abroad” – i.e. NATO enlargement
(although “no spheres of influence”)
…in return for Russian cooperation on Iran,
Afghanistan, drug trade, etc.
Climate change
• renewed US engagement and leadership
• post-Kyoto agreement in Copenhagen,
December 2009
• involve China and India
• domestic energy and environment plans
include introduction of “cap and trade”
system
Global economic crisis
• domestic stimulus and reform
• global coordination to restore international
economic growth – coordinated stimulus?
• new regulatory system for global finance?
• strengthen and reform international financial
institutions (IMF, IBRD)
• maintain global free trade system (although
more protection of labor and environment;
tougher stance on completing Doha)
Common US-EU interests?
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Iraq
Middle East (Israel-Palestine)
Iran
Afghanistan-Pakistan (“Afpak”)
China
Russia
climate change
global financial and economic crisis
US-Europe: “essential” partners
Renewal
• of image, promise of America
• of American leadership (in deed and by
example)
Return
to traditional principles of US foreign policy:
• engagement
• multilateralism
• diplomacy
• institution-building
• prudence
• reluctance to use force, but willingness to
do so
Continuity
• of basic national interests
• constraints imposed by inherited problems