Transcript Central Asia

Lecture 22:
Everything You Always
Wanted to Know About
Central Asia*
*but were afraid to ask
February 27, 2009
Central Asia
Central Asia Fun Facts
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Poorest part of USSR; GDP/capita:
Kazakhstan $12,000
Kyrgyzstan $2,200
Tajikistan $1,800
Turkmenistan $5,800
Uzbekistan $2,700
(US $48,000)
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Monocultures: cultivation of a single crop
Mostly Muslim: Kaz (47%)-Turkmen (89%)
Nations and borders artificial creations of 20th century
USSR provided homelands
Thrust into independence in 1991
Democratize?
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“Transition theory” of western governments
and INGOs: autocracy ends, transition begins
Literacy ~99%, women’s rights
Resources: oil, cotton, gold, uranium
IMF, western economists advised
No.
Why Not Democracy?
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Low income
Weak civil society
Resource curse
Bad neighbors
Decline in economic security, human development
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USSR had generous welfare state
End of subsidies
Loss of investment and export markets unemployment
Corruption
Bad leaders
Parade Magazine’s List of Worse Dictators—
2006
1) Omar al-Bashir, Sudan. Age 62. In power since 1989
2) Kim Jong-il, North Korea. Age 63. In power since 1994
3) Than Shwe, Burma (Myanmar). Age 72. In power since 1992.
4) Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe. Age 81. In power since 1980.
5) Islam Karimov, Uzbekistan. Age 67. In power since 1990.
6) Hu Jintao, China. Age 63. In power since 2002.
7) King Abdullah, Saudi Arabia. Age 82. In power since 1995.
8) Saparmurat Niyazov, Turkmenistan. Age 65. In power since
1990.
9) Seyed Ali Khameini, Iran. Age 66. In power since 1989.
10) Teodoro Obiang Nguema, Equatorial Guinea. Age 63. In power
since 1979.
Nation-building
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No pre-Soviet national identity
Nationalism for presidential legitimacy
Rewrote history books
Adopted “national” symbols
Nation-building
Pipeline Politics in the Caspian
Basin
What they want:
 US: diversify sources, help US companies, isolate
Russia, Iran  use Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline
 Russia: obligations to Europe, maintain “sphere
of influence”
 China: as much oil/gas as possible
 Iran: not be isolated
 Central Asia: not be dependent, $$$
US Bases in Central Asia
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Support Afghanistan operations, “lily pad”
strategy, wean former Soviet states off Russia
Russia first accepted, then demurred
US alliance with Uzbek dictator Islam Karimov
Andijan massacre
Base closed
Now what…?
What Can We Learn from Central
Asia?
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Transition paradigm wrong
The art of faking democracy
US foreign policy: interests vs. principle
Muslim world diverse
How we conceptualize regions matters