Transcript class 18
Caspian Sea Region and Oil A modern Silk Road or The next conflict zone? Caspian Sea Region-Historical Background Mongol Empire Spread of Islam Ottoman Empire The Caucasus Chechnya Conflict in Chechnya • mid 19th Century: mid Caucasian wars with Russian Empire. 50 years to subdue Chechens • Sufism • Bolshevik Revolution: promised autonomy • Soviets: NOT. 1944: 100,000 Chechens (along with 7 other ethnic groups deported to Kazakstan) • Repression of Islam in USSR, but not in Chechny • Wahhabism-linked to Bin Laden • 1994-1996 war: stalemate • 1999: war resurfaces due to bombings in Moscow (politically determined?) – Young Russian conscripts Russia invades Chechnya Grozny, Chechnya after 1999-2000 bombing Russia’s motivation for persistence • Nationalism – 1st domino in potential string of secessions: • Dagestan, Ingushetia, Osettia, Tatarstan in north • Fear of Islamic world – Would allow development of another Islamic state on its frontier – Wahhabism and political Islams • Oil: – Oil + Gas= 40% of Russian export value – = 44% of gov’t revenues “Georgia’s always on my, my, my, my, my ,my, my, my, my…. mind” Pankisi Gorge Armenia/Azerbaijan Iran Iran • Shah of Iran: 1941-1979 – Some reforms in education, land redistribution, development etc. but also increasing disparities in wealth from oil, supported by US – SAVAK and repression of opposition • Overthrow by Ayatollah Khomeini-led fundamentalists (Shiite Muslim)-authoritarian return to tradition and repression • Allied with Russia over anti-Americanism and US relations with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. • Enemy of US: Oil companies forbidden to do business here. Sanctions Russian Empire (amidst the “Great Game”) USSR Soviet Russia Policy: The “Stans” • 1921: USSR did not want 1 Turkestan policy • Broke the area up into 5 republics: – – – – – Kazakstan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Tajikistan Kyrgistan “Turkestan” Soviet Political Tactics to maintain Peace in the ‘Stans • Heavily Russified (especially Kazakstan) • Also Russianized: – cyrillic script and Russian culture – Repression of religion, especially Islam here • Destruction of mosques and schools • These went underground • Soviet and Nationalistic identity--not Cossack—forced end of pastoralism—”we have borders” • Disrupted economy: pastoralism soviet industrial agriculture environmental destruction • Elites supported Communism—handpicked local loyal soviet apparatchiks • Divided territory strategically-Fergana valley Fergana Valley Independence 1991—6 Big challenges 1. Political • These are monarchies, not democracies – ”illiberal democracies” – – – – Autocratic leaders, almost kingsElections not free Turkmenistan most autocratic Uzbekistan repression of opponents of leader Karimov – Hunger strike in Kyrgistan • All members of former Communist elites • Weak state: little power, prestige, capability • Corruption Corruption index 2. Economic challenges • Economic decline – Loss of Soviet Markets – Dramatic decline in economy after1992 • Weak infrastructure: dirt roads, no roads – Landlocked: depend on Russian goodwill for access • Low foreign investment 3. Islamic Challenge • Area is not Islamic fundamentalist, yet it is reviving – Turkistanis are not formally religious; only 20% attend mosque-yet Islam is a daily part of their lives • Social/political movement at grassroots/people sick of corruption, poverty • Promoted from Iran/Afghanistan 4. External interests • Russia: wants traditional economic links and control, but is worried about radical Islam • Iran-has religious/political/economic ties, especially to Tajikistan • Turkey: religious/Turkic speaking, pro-West • China: economic/political connections: worried about its border • US: OIL 5. Lack of Nationalism? • Missed opportunity in 1917 – 1917-1924: ethnic movements got foothold in other places for nationalist incubation (Baltics, Serbia) – Regional identity (Turkestan) rather than national or ethnic ones – Still, trying to engage in national building, but this is hard because top down movements don’t work 6. Regional Security and Cooperation • “Bishkek 6”: Kyrgistan, Kazakstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, China, Russia – – – – Promote regional economic cooperation Build up armed forces in Cental Asia Confine Taliban to Afghanistan Oppose IMU(Islamic Movement for Uzbeckistan) and allies – Control oil/gas routes (worried about US interest in oil) Kazakstan • • • • Extremely repressive gov Passive electorate Huge potential oil wealth: 30 bbls Large Russian pop in north Uzbekistan • 30 million people – (v. 15 million Kazakstan, 5 million Turkmenistan) • Famous Islamic religious and historical sites – Samarkand, Tashkent • Most militant islamist group: IMU trying to overthrow gov; suffered in war against Taliban • US Airbase (also Kyrgistan) Samarkand Tashkent Tajikistan • Different than other Central Asian countries – Settled, Iranian language • 1991: weak regime backed by Moscow as buffer against Afghanistan1992-1996: civil war: ProRussians Tajiks v. non-Islamic Tajik minorities/Uzbeks – 50000 killed, 1 million refugees • 1996: ceasefire Tajik(70%) % Islamists (30%) • Russia worried about this—troops on border • Russia supports president with 96% of vote The The “Great Game” Lineup • Russia: Armenia, Kazakstan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgistan, (Iran) • West/US: Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Turkey, (Troops in Uzbek and Kyrg; wargames in Kazak) • China: Kazakstan (economic) • Iran: Turkmenistan, Kazakstan Shatterbelt (Cohen 1973) • • • • • • Complex ethnic/cultural mosaic Location of global resource History of local conflicts Attracts interests of world powers Global-local alliances Potential for major extra-regional conflicts (could spill over) Islamic Scenarios “Black Gold” 3 Oil Scenarios • Gulf States Model: (Azerbaijan) – Wealth for elites: no industrial diversification, import and exploit workers; no democracy, control by consortiaum of western oil companies and local political oligarchs • Indonesian Model: (Kazakstan) – VERY UNSTABLE; huge deposits, strategic location, diverse ethnicities, rising expectation (delusions of grandeur), attempts at MNC investment; corrupt repressive dictatorship, high unemployment, huge military expense, boom-bust scenario • Nigerian Model: (Uzbekistan) – destruction of traditional society, state has expropriated everything for oil, oil destroyed existing economy and culture, oil exports army and repression, ethnic