Transcript Weather Forecasting Project of UER of Ghana-RM-MDCE-27-05-11

EXPLOITING
The Agricultural POTENTIAL of Ghana
USING Weather FORECAST
‘Report on The Weather Forecasting Project of UER’
By
Emmanuel D. Eledi
(Regional Director - UER)
Report On The Weather Forecasting
Project Of Upper Eest Region Of Ghana
Presentation Format
• Introduction: Background Information on
Programme
• Implementation Method
• Status of Implementation
• The Way Forward
The Global Concern On Climate Change
According to Prof. Richard Washington of Oxford
University at a workshop in Nairobi,
• Issues of Global concern are:
– Understanding current climate variability
– Climate prediction, that includes
• Seasonal prediction
• Global warming issues
• He mentioned that:
“The Issue of Seasonal prediction is most crucial to the farmer and
Coping with Climate Change and Variability is vital and a Hot Topic
for Strategic Research” - Prof. Washington
• Concentration of the project was focused on seasonal,
weekly and daily weather forecasting to support
farming decision making
Exploiting The Agricultural Potential Using Climate
Forecast
Workshop Jan 12-23,2009 Wa, UWR
The Climate Issue
Introduction
 Large parts of Northern Ghana have semi-arid environment
& have High variability of rainfall patterns
 In Ghana, Seasonal climate outlook & weather forecasts are
available from G-Met but difficult to interpret for farmers to
use
 The need arises to identify together on-farm climate
sensitive systems for decision making by farmers
 The program began with seasonal forecasts initially
presented to MoFA from Florida to advise farmers on the
periods to begin farming activities
 Geographical locations of communities were taken for
location specific weekly forecasting data to be developed
and shared with farmers
WEATHER FORECASTING FOR SUSTAINABLE FARMING:
THE EXPERIENCE IN UPPER EAST REGION OF GHANA
 Opinion leaders of communities were provided daily forecasters and rain
gauges for data collection and record keeping with the field agents
 Management staff were given capacity building to enable them develop the
seasonal calendar along Enso forecast systems and passed to farmers (i.e.
whether El-Nino, La-Nina or Neutral weather system)
 The M&E staff of the region and districts developed cropping calendars
using the forecast from the seasonal weather forecasting calendars for
extension transfer to farmers in the region annually
 The weekly forecast data indicating dates & quantity of rains were produced
and found useful in decision making on activities by stakeholders
 Seasonal forecast developed for 2011 being used is shown below for Bolga,
Navrongo & Bawku.
HOW WELL RAINFALL BEHAVED IN UER IN 2011?
CLIMATE
YEARS
MEAN
DEVIATION
LA NINO
12
1030.7
408.7
NEUTRAL
26
960.9
447.9
EL NINO
15
986.1
440.9
HISTORY
51
Neutral Year Likely Rainfall Pattern for
(Bolgatanga Municipal, Bongo & Tongo)
PROBABLE RAINFALL PATTERN IN 2011 (BUILSA,
NAVRONGO, PAGA)
350
NUETRAL LIKELY RAINFALL PATTERN
330
300
250
260
239
200
186
181
150
160
Upper Limit
100
Lower Limit
108
93
77
50
79
81
54
0
18
0
-50
JAN
Upper Limit
Lower Limit
FEB
0
0
-10
30
17
16
-7
10
-4
MARC
APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC
H
18
30
93
160
181
239
330
260
81
10
-10
-7
17
54
77
108
186
79
16
-4
MONTH
8
-5
8
-5
Neutral Year Likely Rainfall Pattern for Bawku,
Bawku West and Garu Tempane
Informing Cropping Calendar through Weather
forecasting
Bolgatanga/Bongo/Tongo Cropping Guide
Informing Cropping Calendar through Weather
forecasting
Builsa/Navrongo/Paga Cropping Guide
Informing Cropping Calendar through Weather
forecasting
Cropping Calendar Bawku, Bawku West & Garu Tempane
DAILY FORECASTING TOOLS & MONITORING
Rain Gauge
Daily Weather
Forecaster-not
bigger than a cell
phone!
Measurement of
Evaporation Rate
Cell Phone
Simple tools for daily weather forecasting and monitoring
30-50 km area, 12-24 hr,
70-75% Skilled rainfall
forecaster
Making Science & Technology Work for the Poor
Linking the forecaster &3-D Model by communities
►Sowing decisions
Forecaster
►Labor hiring (By Day)
►Fertilizer applications
►Field Insecticide application
►Community Resettlement
Decisions
►Crop harvest decisions
►Marketing activities
►Post-harvest losses
►Building & Construction activities
►Fishing activities
THE WAY FORWARD
6)
Which Way Forward?
–
–
–
–
7)
The need to immediately scale up the use of these simple tools
in weather forecasting at farmer level in the other northern
regions and the whole country that suffer from the vagaries of
weather cannot be over emphasised
Other advanced systems/tools exist (Doppler Radar systems)
that can be introduced to cover the whole country and protect
our sea and air ports with instant detailed data on weather
Import and sale of the simple but efficient daily weather
forecaster can protect a wide range of stakeholders – farmers,
marketers, the construction industry, etc.
Adoption and mainstreaming the technology countrywide by
decision (policy) makers for scaling up into the rest of the
country
Expansion of training of all extension staff on weather
forecasting and use of the gadgets to other Regions
NEED TO IMPROVE ACCESS TO SIMPLE TOOLS
Forecaster
Innovative, simple, local
weather monitor and 12-24
hour rainfall forecaster
►24 Hour Pressure trend
►Pictorial displays of approaching
rain
►Relative Humidity
►Temperature
►Daily maximum and minimum data
►70-80% forecast accuracy