Transcript Climate Change - kevinanderson.info

Climate Change:
our final Tragedy of the Commons?
Kevin Anderson
Tyndall Centre
2012
Presentation outline
 Current aspirations and emission trends
 Why we should strive for 2°C
 The levels of mitigation required of the UK
 Behavioural and technical opportunities
 Messages for business
 Summary
Manchester Energy
The international energy agency’s view on climate change

“When I look at this [CO2] data, the trend is perfectly in line with a temperature increase
of 6 degrees Celsius, which would have devastating consequences for the planet.”

“we have 5 years to change the energy system – or have it changed”
Fatih Birol - IEA chief economist
Similar concerns expressed by government chief scientists, PwC, World Bank
Manchester Energy
Climate change commitments
 International
‘To hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius
and take action .. consistent with science and on the basis of equity‘
 EU
 UK
Manchester Energy
‘must ensure global average temperature increases do not exceed
preindustrial levels by more than 2°C’
‘average global temperatures must rise no more than 2°C’
 How do 2 & 4°C futures fit with CO2 trends?
 What is the role of energy?
Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)
90.0
80.0
70.0
Billion tonnes CO2
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
2020
2030
2040
2050
Billion tonnes CO2
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
0.0
1980
1990
2000
Rio + 20
Copenhagen Accord
David King CC most dangerous threat
Royal Commission report (60% by 2050)
RIO Earth Summit
UN Climate change panel established (IPCC)
Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)
90.0
20.0
10.0
2010
Year
2020
2030
2040
2050
Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)
90.0
Rio + 20
80.0
Global economic downturn
70.0
Billion tonnes CO2
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
… yet emissions have continued to rise
(~6% in 2010, ~3% 2011 & 12)
10.0
0.0
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
2020
2030
2040
2050
Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)
90.0
Rio + 20
80.0
70.0
Billion tonnes CO2
60.0
… so what of future emissions?
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
2020
2030
2040
2050
Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)
90.0
Rio + 20
80.0
70.0
Energy system design lives (lock-in)
 Supply technologies 25-50 year
 Large scale infrastructures
Billion tonnes CO2
60.0
 Built environment
50.0
30-100 years
 Aircraft and ships ~30 years
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
2020
2030
2040
2050
Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)
90.0
… and assuming current mitigation plans
Rio + 20
80.0
70.0
Billion tonnes CO2
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
2020
2030
2040
2050
Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)
90.0
Rio + 20
80.0
70.0
Billion tonnes CO2
60.0
50.0
~3000GtCO2 for 2000-2050
~5000GtCO2 for 2000-2100
40.0
30.0
… i.e. a 4°C – 6°C rise between 2050 & 2100
20.0
10.0
0.0
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
2020
2030
2040
2050
Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)
90.0
Rio + 20
80.0
70.0
Billion tonnes CO2
60.0
50.0
40.0
… outside chance
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
2020
2030
2040
2050
Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)
90.0
Rio + 20
80.0
70.0
Billion tonnes CO2
60.0
50.0
… but building low/zero carbon electrical
supply needs to begin now
40.0
D
Too early
e for
supply
m
a
SUPPLY
n
&
d
demand
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
2020
2030
2040
2050
So, if 2°C is too challenging,
what about 4°C – or more?
For 4°C global mean surface
temperature
5°C - 6°C global land mean
… & increase °C on the hottest days of:
8°C - 10°C in Central Europe
In low latitudes 4°C gives
up to 40% reduction in maize & rice
as population heads towards 9 billion by 2050
There is a widespread view that 4°C is:
 incompatible with an organised global community
 beyond ‘adaptation’
 devastating to eco-systems
 highly unlikely to be stable (‘tipping points)
… consequently …
4°C should be avoided at ‘all’ costs
UK energy and the 2°C
challenge
 10% reduction in emissions year on year
 40% reduction by 2015
 70%
2020
 90+%
2030
Impossible?
… is living with a 4°C global temperature rise by 2050-70 less
impossible?
Where to from here?
Who needs to lead on these reductions?
Pareto’s 80:20 rule
80% of something relates to … 20% of those involved
~80% of emissions from ~20% of population
run this 3 times
~50% of emissions from ~1% of population
… as a guide 40-60% emissions from 1-5% population
Who’s in the 1-to-5%?
 Climate scientists
 Climate journalists & pontificators
 OECD (& other) academics
 Anyone who gets on a plane
 For the UK anyone earning over £30k
What options are there technically?
The Electricity system
Light,
Refrign
Electricity
Consumption
10
50
Transmission
54
Powerstation
120
Fuel
Production,
Extraction
&Transport
133
Demand opportunities dwarf those from supply in short-term
What options are there technically?
Car efficiency (without rebound)
 EU 2015 plan 130g/km (fleet mean with buy out)
 2008 BMW 109g/km, VW, 85-99g/km; 1998 Audi A2 ~ 75g/km
 ~8 year penetration of new cars … ~90% of vehicle-km
~40-50% CO2 reduction by 2020 with no new technology
Reverse recent trends in occupancy
~60-70% reduction by 2020
So what do we know?
For businesses the message is simple but uncomfortable
 Should avoid 4°C at all costs
 Need ~70% decarbonisation over next 5-10 years
 Only small % of global population need to mitigate
 Low carbon energy supply is too little too late in the West
 Principal response is to reduce energy demand now
 Carbon trading & prices are not viable for non-marginal (large) reductions
Headline messages
 Change behaviour
- today (producers and consumers)
 Improve technology - now & over the next few years
 Consume less
To Summarise
Uncomfortable conclusions from conservative analysis
 Link between cumulative emissions & temp’ is broadly correct
 Non-OECD nations peak emissions by 2025/30
 There are rapid reductions in deforestation & food emissions
 No ‘discontinuities’ (tipping points) occur
& Stern/CCC/IEA’s “feasible” reductions of 3-4% p.a. is achieved

2°C stabilisation is virtually impossible

4°C by 2050-2070 looks ‘likely’
6°C+)
(could be earlier & on the way to
So … for businesses?
 Lead by example
 Don’t be the exception - (cars, planes, ships – all argue to be treated leniently)
 Don’t hide behind blame of others - (UK blames China, China blame US …)
 Consider the system - (e.g. shale’s impact on coal use, etc.)
 Acknowledge it is not going to be easy – it will often hurt
So … for businesses?
Be courageous as business leaders and as citizens
Mitigate for 2°C, but plan for 4°C – or more
… and finally
“… this is not a message of futility, but a wake-up call of
where our rose-tinted spectacles have brought us. Real
hope, if it is to arise at all, will do so from a bare assessment
of the scale of the challenge we now face.”
Anderson & Bows.
Royal Society 2011
… and finally
“at every level the greatest obstacle to
transforming the world is that we lack the
clarity and imagination to conceive that it
could be different.”
Roberto Unger
End
Kevin Anderson
Tyndall Centre
2012