Transcript Wills-resilience-11aug08

Responding to climate change challenges, responsibilities, opportunities
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Resilient Communities Strategy Forum
11 August 2008
Dr Ray Wills
CEO, WA Sustainable Energy Association
Future Smart Strategies
School of Earth and Geographical Sciences,
The University of Western Australia
Welcome to country
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The Noongar divide the year into 6 distinct seasons that
correspond with moving to different habitats and feeding
patterns based on seasonal foods.
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Birak
- December/January
Bunuru
- February/March
Djeran
- April/May
Makuru
- June/July
Djilba
- August/September
Kambarang
- October/November
Sustainability
Sustainability
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Key attributes include:
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Dealing transparently and systemically with risk,
uncertainty and irreversibility.
Integration of environmental, social, human and
economic goals in policies and activities.
Ensuring inter-generational equity.
A commitment to best practice.
No net loss of human capital or natural capital.
The principle of continuous improvement.
The need for good governance.
Sustainability in a changing climate for the
community - and business.
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McDonald's Corp. is blogging on the environment.
Starbucks Corp. has a green-themed online game.
Hilton Hotels Corp. linked manager pay to green outcomes.
All corporates have worked for years or even decades on proenvironment strategies and corporate social responsibility, and growing
awareness of global warming among consumers is accelerating
change.
Businesses in green buildings report improved productivity, better staff
retention, fewer sick days, millions of dollars in energy savings and a
reduced environmental footprint.
Some companies that "go green” have seen a 25% increase in trade
with eco-shoppers and eco-traders, with a trend for green businesses to
only deal with other green businesses.
First - some greenhouse science…
Greenhouse and global warming
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Greenhouse theory
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Anthropogenic global warming theory late 1960’s
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Basis first proposed by in 1824
Greenhouse = earth’s “blanket” average temperature about 15°C; otherwise would be -18°C
UN and IMO lead debate late 1979
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change formed 1988
Rio 1992, Kyoto 1997 …
Warming of climate is now unequivocal – global
increases in air and ocean temperatures, melting of
snow and ice, and rising sea level.
The enhanced greenhouse effect is not hypothesis empirically and theoretically well-established.
Instrumental record - temperature
About WA
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Annual inflow to Perth dams dropped from 338 GL to 114 GL
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Source: Water Corporation 2007.
About WA
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A warming of 1.0°C is sufficient to move climate belts about
150 km south. A regional temperature change of 2 °C likely
to have a serious impact on most life forms, and on most
ecosystems and agricultural areas.
Changes by 2040
About WA
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Climate change is arguably the most important key
threatening process to all biota.
Biota in narrow climatic bands are likely to suffer
changes in the patterns of distribution and abundance
of a range of species.
Impacts both direct - climate affecting plant species
establishment and persistence, and indirect - climate
impacting bushfire regimes or increased summer
rainfall increasing the spread of dieback.
Rise of 2ºC results in loss of 66% of Dryandra species,
41% of Australian eucalyptus species (including many
WA species), and 100% of Acacia species.
Similar studies for fauna - all frog and mammal species
About WA
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With global warming and
drying of the south coast in
WA, areas with temperature
increases > 2° C combined
with a decline in rainfall
consistently below 400 mm
will lead to the loss of many
species of Proteaceae in
WA's SW.
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It is likely the iconic Banksia
and Dryandra will die out.
So too will the animals that
live on them.
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About WA
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Climate is key determinant for your garden - changes
in climate will impact on
what will grow.
About WA
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Climate is key determinant of agriculture - changes
in climate will impact on crops and livestock.
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Rising temperatures will cause a shift in budburst,
shorter growing seasons, earlier harvest dates,
lower crop quality, changes in soil temperatures.
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Wheat growing areas in SW WA seriously impacted
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Northern wheatbelt likely to disappear, south reduced.
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Wipes out most of an industry worth more than $2 billion.
Climate is a key influence in grape selection.
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Shifting rainfall patterns and drier conditions will change the way
vineyards operate and reduce the wine crop.
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WA produces around 5% of all Australian wine, about 25% of wine in
super-premium and ultra-premium categories.
Sea level changes
Mandurah
at 1m sea
level rise
Courtesy of WA Sustainable Energy Association
Sea level changes
Mandurah
at 7m sea
level rise
Courtesy of WA Sustainable Energy Association
Evidence of global warming
Sea level changes
Global changes
http://www.igbp.kva.se//uploads/ESO_IGBP4.pdf
Economic risk of change
Climate
Risk
Sector Level
Political /
Regulatory
Physical Risk
Supply Chain
Company Level
Staff
Litigation
Reputation /
Brand
Products /
Technology
Responding to climate change
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The threat of dangerous climate change is not just an
environmental issue - underscores the need to build a
sustainable economy.
An effective response will change the way we use
energy and in so doing, future proof our economy.
Action by government, business and the community
must put in place measures that
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reduce unnecessary use;
promote energy efficiency across life cycles;
reduce reliance on increasingly expensive traditional
fuels;
produce energy through renewable generation; and
offset remaining emissions.
Responding to climate change
ABS STATISTICAL INDICATORS - WA • 1367.5 • JUN 2007
Responding to climate change
ABS STATISTICAL INDICATORS - WA • 1367.5 • JUN 2007
Energy - and networks
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Fossil fuel prices will continue to push up inflation, but
renewable energy will continue to shine on us, to wash
up on our shores, and to blow past us without
additional cost.
Australia is the Middle East of renewable energy and
we are failing to harvest the energy bonanza for the
benefit of the Australian economy and especially for
Australia’s export industries.
We need to plan the networks, strategically place the
infrastructure - in the next 12 years building toward a
20% renewable energy target.
Inflation
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A sustainable way to fight inflation is deliver energy
efficiency in all things that result in long term energy
savings and
reduce
inflationary
pressures that
would otherwise
impact on
the CPI
Responding to climate change
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2 Million every 5 minutes
WA SEA –
WA’s peak body for sustainable energy
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WA SEA Members - developing and adopting
technologies and services that minimise energy use
through sustainable energy practices and maximising
energy use from sustainable sources.
Our members are the business part of the solution to
climate change. Join us and make a difference…
The inconvenient truth - time has run out
for solutions that are simply convenient.
Dr Ray Wills
WA Sustainable Energy Association
[email protected]
Future Smart Strategies
[email protected]
School of Earth and Geographical Sciences,
The University of Western Australia
[email protected]