Transcript RTW_NGIS_jul07short - Ray Wills Future Smart Strategies

The Impact of Global Warming on
Western Australia
NGIS presentation 2 August 2007
Dr Ray Wills
Manager, Sustainability Services, SMEC
Chair, WA Sustainable Energy Association
Adjunct Senior Research Fellow
School of Earth and Geographical Sciences,
The University of Western Australia
A changing climate for business and the
community
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The science is in, the globe is warming, and we must
both mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and rapidly
prepare for adaptation to climate change.
A raft of immediately accessible and affordable
solutions to reduce greenhouse emissions and provide
alternative sources of energy are already in our
possession - we can act today.
Some businesses and members of the community are
understandably nervous about the economic
ramifications of measures to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions in part because not enough work has been
done to assist them understand these issues.
Greenhouse and global warming
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Greenhouse theory
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Anthropogenic global warming theory late 1960’s
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Basis first proposed by Joseph Fourier in 1824
Quantified by Svante Arrhenius in 1896
Greenhouse of earth’s “blanket” - average earth temperature
about 15°C; otherwise would be -18°C
Debate late 1970’s, Rio 1992, Kyoto …
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 1988
Warming of climate is now unequivocal – global
increases in air and ocean temperatures, melting of
snow and ice, and rising sea level.
The enhanced greenhouse effect is empirically and
theoretically well-established.
Instrumental record - temperature
IPCC Assessment Report 4
Temperature
About WA
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WA is arguably the first Western economy with
measurable economic impact through climate change
About WA
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Annual inflow to Perth’s surface water sources dropped
from 338 GL to 114 GL
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Source: Water Corporation 2006.
About WA
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WA is arguably the first Western economy with
measurable economic impact through climate change
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WA SW has already suffered a 20% decline in rainfall in the
last 30 years - effects on runoff more serious with 50% drop
in steam flow to reservoirs - and a further 20% reduction
predicted, and this is thought to have already started at the
end of the 1990s.
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Value of lost income in water sales in dams is estimated at
$1 billion in WA through water restrictions and additions to
infrastructure (WaterCorp) - and almost another billion with
Desal II.
About WA
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A warming of 1.0°C is sufficient to move climate belts about
150 km south - thus a regional change of temperature of 2
°C is likely to have a serious impact on most life forms, and
on most ecosystems and agricultural areas.
Changes by 2040
About WA
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With global warming and drying of the south coast in
WA, areas with temperature increases > 2° C
combined with a decline in rainfall consistently below
400 mm will lead to the loss of many species of
Proteaceae in
WA's SW
- including the
iconic Banksia
and Dryandra,
- will die out.
As will the
animals that
live on them.
About WA
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Climate is a key determinant of agriculture and
changes in climate will impact on all agriculture both crops and livestock.
Rising temperatures will cause a shift in budburst,
shorter growing seasons, earlier harvest dates,
lower crop quality.
Wheat growing areas in SW WA seriously
impacted and northern wheatbelt likely to
disappear while production in the remainder
greatly reduced, wiping out most of an industry
worth more than $2 billion.
About WA
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Climate is a key influence in grape selection.
Shifting rainfall patterns and drier conditions will
change the way vineyards operate and reduce the
wine crop.
WA produces around 5% of all Australian wine, but
produces about 25% of wine in super-premium and
ultra-premium categories.
Margaret River climate will be closer to that of Perth,
cabernet sauvignon and chardonnay will be lost and
varieties suited to warmer climates such as shiraz.
Swan Valley will no longer be suitable for vines.
About WA
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Sea levels up 18.5 cm in last century
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Predictions this will at least triple (more than 48
cm) over the next ninety years.
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Potential for 40 cm rise by 2040 and 1 metre sea
level rise by end of this century - not an extreme
estimate - within the bounds of scientifically-based
predictions, including latest CSIRO models.
Sea level changes
Sea level changes
Mandurah
at 1m sea
level rise
Courtesy of WA Sustainable Energy Association
Sea level changes
Mandurah
at 7m sea
level rise
Courtesy of WA Sustainable Energy Association
About WA
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Coastal freshwater swamps will go saline.
Fringing reefs currently a barrier protecting parts of
Perth’s coastline will be further submerged offering
less protection and allowing bigger waves passage
to previously sheltered beaches.
About WA
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The Indian Ocean has warmed an average 0.6°C
since 1960 - only another 0.4°C is needed for
widespread and intense coral bleaching. The
largest warming occurred off Northwest WA.
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Bleaching of coral from higher ocean temperatures
will kill parts of the Ningaloo Reef just as the Great
Barrier Reef.
About WA
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Other WA impacts will
be the same as around
the world
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Sea level rise and storm surge
Temperature – minimum rise faster than maximum
Changing rainfall and extreme storm events
Health and safety
Emergency response function
National security
Global warming will act as a ‘threat multiplier’
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International security
Global changes
http://www.igbp.kva.se//uploads/ESO_IGBP4.pdf
Economic risk of change
Climate
Risk
Sector Level
Political /
Regulatory
Physical Risk
Supply Chain
Company Level
Staff
Litigation
Reputation /
Brand
Products /
Technology
Greenhouse gas reductions
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Life cycles
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Energy consumed in project
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Energy efficiency of materials
Transport
Construction
Energy consumed by users post project
Businesses, the community, governments, our
society needs to get ready for climate change and
adapt to avoid physical impacts on the whole life
cycle of what we do including supply chains and
infrastructure.
Portfolio of technology options
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Improved end-use efficiency
Higher efficiency combustion technologies
Fuel switching
New automotive technologies
Decentralized power generation
Affordable renewable technologies
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Wind
Solar thermal
Solar photovoltaic
Geothermal
Tidal and waves
Capture and sequestration of carbon dioxide from power
plants or the atmosphere
Source: Graeme Pearman - GP Consulting
To market, to market
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Carbon emissions trading markets will be part of the
inevitable response to attempting to slow global warming
and carbon will become the single largest traded
commodity in the world.
The price of carbon will impact on energy production and
will make a range of different renewable energy projects
immediately commercially viable.
The future of energy in Australia and for the globe is an
array of sustainable energy solutions incorporating low or
zero emissions energy generation in whatever form that
ultimately proves most economically competitive.
The latest news
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http://www.theage.com.au/news/tim-colebatch/the-european-solution/2006/10/23/1161455660470.html#
Responding to climate change
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The challenge of climate change should be the catalyst
for changing the way we think about and plan
infrastructure, changing the way we use energy and in
so doing, future proofing our economy.
A key element of managing this change is an
integrated, whole-of-government approach to tackle
the enormous challenge that global warming poses to
Australia and the world.
Governments must put frameworks in place that take
an integrated approach to develop significant, forwardthinking initiatives and create budgets that promote
energy efficiency across government, business and the
community.
The inconvenient truth - time has run out
for solutions that are simply convenient.
Dr Ray Wills
Manager, Sustainability Services, SMEC
[email protected]
Chair, WA Sustainable Energy Association
[email protected]
Adjunct Senior Research Fellow
School of Earth and Geographical Sciences,
The University of Western Australia
[email protected]