Transcript Economic risk of change

Responding to climate change challenges, responsibilities, opportunities
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Mid West Science Forum
13 August 2008
Dr Ray Wills
CEO, WA Sustainable Energy Association
Future Smart Strategies
School of Earth and Geographical Sciences,
The University of Western Australia
Greenhouse and global warming
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Greenhouse theory
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Anthropogenic global warming theory late 1960’s
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Basis first proposed by in 1824
Greenhouse = earth’s “blanket” average temperature about 15°C; otherwise would be -18°C
UN and IMO lead debate late 1979
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change formed 1988
Rio 1992, Kyoto 1997 …
Warming of climate is now unequivocal – global
increases in air and ocean temperatures, melting of
snow and ice, and rising sea level.
The enhanced greenhouse effect is not hypothesis
- it is empirically and theoretically well-established.
Evidence of global warming
artwork
"Hot with a chance of a late storm"
artwork
by The Glue
Society.
"Hot with a chance of a late
storm"
by The Glue Society.
Instrumental record - temperature
About WA
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Annual inflow to Perth dams dropped from 338 GL to 114 GL
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Source: Water Corporation 2007.
About WA
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A warming of 1.0°C is sufficient to move climate belts about
150 km south. A regional temperature change of 2 °C likely
to have a serious impact on most life forms, and on most
ecosystems and agricultural areas.
Changes by 2040
About WA
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Climate is key determinant for your garden - changes
in climate will impact
on what will grow.
About WA
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Climate is key determinant of agriculture - changes
in climate will impact on crops and livestock.
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Rising temperatures will cause a shift in budburst,
shorter growing seasons, earlier harvest dates,
lower crop quality, changes in soil temperatures.
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Wheat growing areas in SW WA seriously impacted
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Northern wheatbelt likely to disappear, south reduced.
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Wipes out most of an industry worth more than $2 billion.
Climate is a key influence in grape selection.
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Shifting rainfall patterns and drier conditions will change the way
vineyards operate and reduce the wine crop.
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WA produces around 5% of all Australian wine, about 25% of wine in
super-premium and ultra-premium categories.
Evidence of global warming
Sea level changes
Sea level changes
Mandurah
at 1m sea
level rise
Courtesy of WA Sustainable Energy Association
Global changes
http://www.igbp.kva.se//uploads/ESO_IGBP4.pdf
Responding to climate change
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The threat of dangerous climate change is not just an
environmental issue - underscores the need to build a
sustainable economy.
An effective response will change the way we use
energy and in so doing, future proof our economy.
Action by government, business and the community
must put in place measures that
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reduce unnecessary use;
promote energy efficiency across life cycles;
reduce reliance on increasingly expensive traditional
fuels;
produce energy through renewable generation; and
offset remaining emissions.
Responding to climate change
ABS STATISTICAL INDICATORS - WA • 1367.5 • JUN 2007
Responding to climate change
ABS STATISTICAL INDICATORS - WA • 1367.5 • JUN 2007
Economic risk of change
Climate
Risk
Sector Level
Political /
Regulatory
Physical Risk
Supply Chain
Company Level
Staff
Litigation
Reputation /
Brand
Products /
Technology
Individual Level
Renewable energy generation
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Spatial relationships
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Resource distribution
- wind, wave, solar,
geothermal
Biomass productivity
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Wind
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Spatial relationships
Renewable energy in Western Australia
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Solar Energy - Photovoltaics (PV)
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Grid-connected and stand alone power systems for remote
telecommunications infrastructure and water pumping
systems. PV modules also in many niche applications,
including emergency telephones, street and other outdoor
lighting, and marine navigation buoys.
Solar thermal
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Low-Temperature Collectors
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Medium-Temperature Collectors
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Used for space/water heating
Heat swimming pools
Industrial - salt production in
salt farms!
Hot water needed for residential
and commercial use
High-Temperature Collectors:
Concentrated solar power
Heat storage
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Heat storage - transfer
the heat to a substance
(molten salt, silicon phase change products, pressurized steam)
which can hold the heat with a high energy density.
Carbon accounting
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Carbon asset register
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Measure, monitor, audit, verify
Carbon accumulation.
Transparency and security.
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Responding to climate change
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Fossil fuel prices will
continue to push up
inflation, but renewable
energy will continue to
shine on us, to
wash up on our shores,
and to
blow past us without
additional cost.
Australia is the Middle East of renewable energy and
we are failing to harvest the energy bonanza for the
benefit of the Australian economy and especially for
Australia’s export industries.
Responding to climate change
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Responding to climate change will create opportunities,
establish new businesses, and create new jobs.
Renewable energy generation is generally more labour
intensive, and more broadly distributed across regions.
With a better employment factor, a diversity of renewable
energy projects can lead to growth of local communities in
rural WA.
Any economic analysis must
fully assess the benefits
to the community – that’s
a part of sustainability.
Responding to climate change
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2 Million every 5 minutes
WA SEA – WA’s peak business body for
the sustainable energy industries
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WA SEA Members - the business part of the solution to
climate change - developing and adopting technologies
and services that minimise energy use through
sustainable energy practices and maximising energy
use from sustainable sources.
The inconvenient truth - time has run out
for solutions that are simply convenient.
Dr Ray Wills
WA Sustainable Energy Association
[email protected]
Future Smart Strategies
[email protected]
School of Earth and Geographical Sciences,
The University of Western Australia
[email protected]