Transcript Project overview, including a description of Integrated Assessment (IA)

Climate change integrated
assessment methodology for
cross-sectoral adaptation and
vulnerability in Europe
Project overview
For further information contact Paula Harrison (email: [email protected])
or visit the project website (www.climsave.eu)
Funded under the European Commission
Seventh Framework Programme
Contract Number: 244031
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Partners
www.CLIMSAVE.eu
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Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, UK
TIAMASG Foundation, Romania
Prospex bvba, Belgium
ESSRG Kft, Hungary
Cranfield University, UK
CREAF, Spain
University of Kassel, Germany
Mendel University, Czech Republic
University of the Aegean, Greece
Rob Tinch, Belgium
Sustainable Environment Research Institute, Austria
University of Edinburgh, UK
University of Lund, Sweden
Wageningen University, The Netherlands
University of Southampton, UK
Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, China
University of the Sunshine Coast, Australia
Victoria University, Australia
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
CLIMSAVE Research Themes
1. Developing a web-based tool (the Integrated Assessment
Platform) for stakeholders to use to assess cross-sectoral
climate change impacts and adaptation options for
themselves.
2. Based on a series of linked sectoral models for 6 sectors:
urban, agriculture, forests, biodiversity, water and coasts.
3. Developing new socio-economic scenarios with
stakeholders that will be quantified within the tool along
with a range of climate scenarios.
www.CLIMSAVE.eu
4. Assessing climate change impacts on, and adaptation
options for both sectoral and ecosystem services indicators.
5. Analysing the cost-effectiveness of adaptation options.
6. Identifying vulnerability hotspots through metrics of
impacts and adaptive capacity across sectors.
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Need for Integrated Assessment Tools
• Decision-makers and other stakeholders need reliable sciencebased information to help them respond to the risks of climate
change impacts and opportunities for adaptation.
• The EC White Paper on Adapting to Climate Change indicates
that information and research on climate change impacts and
adaptation in Europe is not effectively shared across sectors and
decision-making levels.
www.CLIMSAVE.eu
• Conclusion: there is a need for cross-sectoral, integrated
assessment tools that take account of stakeholder concerns and
requirements -> CLIMSAVE IA Platform.
• The CLIMSAVE IA Platform will be a key tool in the European
Climate Adaptation Platform (CLIMATE-ADAPT).
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
The CLIMSAVE IA Platform
• Previously:
– Models ‘belonged’ to the research
community
– Lack of flexibility for stakeholders
(scenarios, quantification, sensitivity,
uncertainty, outputs, etc.)
www.CLIMSAVE.eu
• The CLIMSAVE IA Platform intends to:
– Be intuitive and accessible to all
– Flexible / Interactive
– Useful
– Be an exploratory tool, not a DSS
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Cross-sectoral focus
Agriculture
Urban
Competition
for land
Forests
Biodiversity
Coasts
www.CLIMSAVE.eu
Water
Competition
for water
Impacts
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Simplified cross-sectoral linkages
Climate & socio-economic scenarios
Urban
Hydrology
Snow
cover
Crop
yields
Forestry
Pests &
diseases
Water
availability
Flooding
www.CLIMSAVE.eu
Rural land
allocation
Water
use
Biodiversity
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Participatory scenario development
Initial design of IA Platform
Construction of meta-models
Workshop 1:
Draft four socio-economic scenarios
Quantification of scenarios
Feedback on design and functionality
Workshop 2:
Enrich and expand scenarios
Revisit the quantification of scenarios
Define adaptation options
www.CLIMSAVE.eu
Workshop 3:
Test IA Platform with adaptation options
Explore impacts and adaptation responses
Final CLIMSAVE IA Platform
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Participatory socio-economic scenarios
Europe
Scotland
Surplus
Deficit
www.CLIMSAVE.eu
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
The Impacts screen of the IA Platform
Allows you to:
• Carry out a sensitivity analysis
• Model the impacts of different future climate and
socio-economic scenarios
• Explore the effects of uncertainty within a scenario
www.CLIMSAVE.eu
Sensitivity analysis
Explore how changing
the baseline climate
affects model results
Explore how changing the baseline
socio-economic assumptions
affects model results
Scenario analysis
Select your:
• Time period (2020s or 2050s)
• IPCC Emissions scenario
• Climate model (5)
• Climate sensitivity (medium is
default)
• Socio-economic scenario
Socio-economic scenarios
were developed by
stakeholders during the
CLIMSAVE project
See how impacts
change for different
scenarios
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Illustrative results for the 2050s
Change in the area of intensive agriculture:
Should I Stay
GDP: -36%
Popn: +23%
Yld Tech: -3%
Riders on the storm
GDP: +54%
Popn: +16%
Yld Tech: +26%
Water exploitation index:
Should I Stay
Wat Tech: -60%
Wat Beh: +11%
Riders on the storm
Wat Tech: +45%
Wat Beh: +52%
www.CLIMSAVE.eu
Explore scenario uncertainty
Default slider positions
developed by CLIMSAVE
stakeholders
Green (for “Go”) range is
stakeholder-derived scenario
uncertainty
Yellow (for “Caution”) range
to explore greater
uncertainty
Red (for “Stop”)
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Moving to the
adaptation screen fixes
the scenarios
Adaptation screen
Marker shows setting from the Impacts screen
www.CLIMSAVE.eu
Difference between the marker and the slider
represents the amount of adaptation
Green range represents credible adaptation. This
is a function of the scenario and the available
capital (human, social and manufactured)
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Example results on adaptation
• Increase irrigation efficiency by maximum allowed for each
socio-economic scenario
Scenario
Change in Irrigation Change in food
usage (%)
production (%)
Change in river
basins with WEI>0.4
[n=92]
We are the World
+18%
+2.3
+2
Icarus
+24%
+1.4
+3
Riders on the Storm
+7%
+0.2
-1
Should I Stay…?
+32%
+3.9
+2
www.CLIMSAVE.eu
• Allows more land to be irrigated
• Increases relative profitability of irrigated
agriculture
• Increases no. river basins under high water stress
Vulnerability screen
Combines Impact
(relative to a threshold)
before or after adaptation
With Coping Capacity (a
function of the Capitals)
To give a map of
Vulnerability
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Vulnerability of people in 2050s
www.CLIMSAVE.eu
Percentage of the European population vulnerable, relative to baseline, for
the six ecosystem service indices by socio-economic and climate scenario.
Cost-effectiveness screen
Qualitative assessment of the
cost of implementation of a
measure across a sector
Limiting capital for the
implementation and efficacy
of a measure (from dark green
for very high capital
availability to red for very low)
Qualitative assessment of the
potential contribution the
measure could make to overall
effective adaptation in a sector
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Conclusions
• The CLIMSAVE IA Platform is an interactive exploratory web-based
tool to enable a wide range of professional, academic and
governmental stakeholders to improve their understanding
surrounding impacts, adaptation responses and vulnerability under
uncertain futures.
• Its holistic framework (cross-sectoral, climate and socio-economic
change) is intended to complement, rather than replace, the use of
more detailed sectoral tools used for local predictions.
www.CLIMSAVE.eu
• It is intended to assist stakeholders and researchers in developing
their capacity to understand the interactions between different
sectors, rather than viewing sectors in isolation.
• Available from www.climsave.eu or Climate-ADAPT (http://climateadapt.eea.europa.eu/climsave-tool).
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
The CLIMSAVE team
www.CLIMSAVE.eu
For further information, please contact the Project Coordinator:
Paula Harrison, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford;
email: [email protected]