Transcript Mr. Roger Jones, CSIRO Atmospheric Research Australia

Using Risk Assessment to Inform
Adaptation
In-session Workshop on Impacts Of, and Vulnerability and Adaptation
To, Climate Change
Hotel Maritim, Bonn, Germany
18 June 2004
Roger N. Jones
Atmospheric Research
Risk
Can be broadly defined as the likelihood of an
adverse event or outcome
How does this relate to Article 2 of the
UNFCCC?
Atmospheric Research
Article 2 UNFCCC
Consequence
Aims to prevent dangerous
Hazard anthropogenic climate change
by stabilising greenhouse gas emissions,
thus allowing
Management
options Through adaptation and mitigation
Ecosystems to adapt naturally
Management
Food security to be maintained
criteria
Sustainable development to proceed
Atmospheric Research
Scales of “dangerous” climate change
Global thresholds of criticality
– Grounded ice sheet melts,
– N. Hemisphere flips to cold conditions,
– Amazon wilts and burns due to heat and drought
Global in scale but very unlikely to occur ( with T)
Local thresholds of criticality
Any activity where:
– the harm caused exceeds given levels of tolerance
– impacts become non-viable with no reasonable substitute
Local in scale, number and severity increasing with T,
benefits fewer with T
Atmospheric Research
Linking climate to adaptation over time
Climate
system
Impacted
activity
Socioeconomic
system
Current
climate
Current
adaptations
Future
climate
Future
adaptations
Atmospheric Research
Measuring the ability to cope
Loss
Profit
Loss
Loss
Coping
Range
Vulnerable
Critical Threshold
Probability
Vulnerable
Profit
Coping
Range
Critical Threshold
Atmospheric Research
Coping under climate change
Stationary Climate &
Coping Range
Changing Climate
Vulnerable
Coping
Range
Vulnerable
Stationary Climate &
Coping Range
Changing Climate
Vulnerable
Adaptation
Coping
Range
Planning Horizon
Vulnerable
Atmospheric Research
Adapting through the coping range
Mitigative capacity ←
Assess
risk
No adaptation
Autonomous adaptation
Coping range
Manage
risk
Mitigation
Adaptation
→ Adaptive capacity
Critical
risk
Danger
Atmospheric Research
Mitigative capacity ←
Assess
risk
No adaptation
Autonomous adaptation
Coping range
Manage
risk
Mitigation
Adaptation
→ Adaptive capacity
Critical
risk
Danger
Autonomous
adaptation
Adapting (generic)
Adapting (specific)
Improve technology access
Institutional reform
Improved equity
Access to information
Build social capital
Access to wealth creation
Mainstreaming adaptation
Natural resource management
New technology
Disaster planning
Retrofit existing structures
Build resilience/resistance
Adapting (transformative)
Replace activity
Abandon activity
Transform activity
Atmospheric Research
Different activities have different
adaptive capacities
Coral Reefs
Developed Country Agriculture
Developing Country Agriculture
Protected Coastal Infrastructure
Atmospheric Research
Adaptation and mitigation
• Adaptation increases the coping range
through biological and social means
• Mitigation reduces the magnitude and
frequency of greenhouse-related climate
hazards
Therefore, they are complementary, not
interchangeable.
They also reduce different areas of climate
uncertainty
Atmospheric Research
Some major methods
1. Natural hazards method
Risk = Hazard ×Vulnerability
(what are the likely damages?)
2. Vulnerability-based method
Risk = Probability × Consequence
(what is the likelihood of exceeding a given state of
vulnerability?)
3. Policy assessment
Does a given policy increase or decrease risk under
climate change?
Atmospheric Research
Selecting a method
Natural Hazard
• Probabilities of hazard
constrained
• Main drivers known
• Chain of consequences
understood
• P(Hazard) ×
Consequences
Exploratory
Vulnerability
• Probabilities not
constrained
• Many drivers
• Multiple pathways and
feedbacks
• P(Vulnerability)
e.g. critical threshold
exceedance
Normative
Atmospheric Research
Temperature Increase (°C)
Likelihood of threshold exceedance
6
6
6
5
5
5
4
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
3
2.5°C Threshold
2
1
1°C Threshold
0
1990
0
2010
2030
2050
2070
2090
Year
5
Probability density
100
Sea Level Rise (cm)
0
0
0
100
Probability exceedance
100
100
80 75cm Threshold
80
80
60
60
60
40
40
40
20
20
25cm Threshold
20
0
1990
0
2010
2030
2050
Year
2070
2090
0
0
6
Probability density
0
100
Atmospheric
Research
Probability exceedance
Low probability, extreme outcomes
Least likely
Moderately
likely
Considerable
damage to most
systems
Increased
damage to
many systems,
fewer benefits
Highly likely
Almost certain
Damage to the
most sensitive,
many benefits
Happening now
Vulnerable to
current climate
Probability
Consequence
Core benefits of adaptation and mitigation
Probability – the likelihood of reaching or exceeding a given level of global warming
Consequence – the effect of reaching or exceeding a given level of global warming
Risk = Probability × Consequence
Activities most at risk
Those where
• critical thresholds are exceeded at low
levels of global warming,
• adaptive capacity is low and/or
adaptation is prohibitively expensive,
difficult or unknown and
• the consequences of exceeding those
thresholds are judged to be serious
Atmospheric Research
Resources
• UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework
www.undp.org/cc/apf.htm
• UKCIP Willow and Connell (2003)
www.ukcip.org.uk/risk_uncert
Atmospheric Research