Transcript Saving the Ozone Layer

Science and global environmental politics
The Case of Stratospheric Ozone
Depletion
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Science, Uncertainty & Risk
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The authority of science
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Uncertainty: incomplete information
Risk: probability of an undesirable event
Policy Qs
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Modern notion of progress
“Knowledge is power”
Perceived neutrality, objectivity (fact/value)
Which risks to mitigate?
How to mitigate risk?
Who decides?
Risk assessment
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Cost-benefit analysis
 Probabilistic; money is the measure
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Problems
 Future vs. present; elitism; nonmonetary values; risk cultures
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Risk Perception & (Ir)rationality
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Representativeness: drawing analogies
Availability: over-rating highly publicized risks
Anchoring: people stick to old information
Overconfidence, denial of risk
Subjective factors
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Autonomy: more risk-accepting when voluntary
Fairness: who causes & who bears risks?
Natural causes more acceptable than human-induced
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Epistemic Communities
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Groups of technical experts united by
consensual knowledge and common
policy goals
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Transnational scope
Influential through state agencies, IOs, NGOs, media
Agenda-setting, fact finding, developing policy
options, implementation
Said to be influential in many treaties
Rational experts > international cooperation
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Why science does not generate rational policy
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Scientific consensus is rare
“Facts” must be interpreted
Scientists are rarely advocates
Much policy is not based on science
Risk of information overload
Scientific agenda is moral, political decision
What counts as knowledge?
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“Other” knowledges
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Precautionary Principle
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Under threat to human health or environment,
precautions should be taken even without full
scientific proof of causality.
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“ounce of prevention is worth pound of cure”
German “forecaring principle” (acid rain)
Embryonic principle of international law
Shifts burden of proof
Promotes foresight, humility, recognition of
interdependence
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Ozone Depletion: Agenda Setting
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CFCs: the “miracle compound”
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Stratospheric ozone
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Non-toxic, chemically inert, many uses
Few makers (DuPont is #1)
O3 absorbs UV-radiation, which causes
skin cancer, cataracts, phytoplankton death…
1974 discovery: CFCs destroy ozone
1978: U.S., Canada, Nordic aerosol ban
1977-85: fact-finding, little action
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Science in the Ozone Negotiations
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Vienna Convention (1985)
Antarctic ozone hole (1986)
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Models predicted 7% ozone loss by 2050
Montreal Protocol (1987)
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Not predicted by models
Cause unknown; CFCs suspected
Negotiators advised to ignore it
U.S. vs. E.U.; virtually no DC participation
IC’s to cut CFCs in half by 2000
DC’s can increase CFC use for 10 years
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How did the ozone hole have an effect?
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Not predicted by models, opened door to
knew way of framing the knowledge
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Emerged when chlorine concentrations
reached 2 ppb
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“Chlorine-loading” scheme
Stabilizing Cl required 85% reduction
 U.S. position: 95% cutback
Montreal Protocol was not enough
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Beyond Montreal
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Amendments: 2/3 vote, majority of IC’s & DC’s
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1988: New Science
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Arctic “hole”
Antarctic hole linked to CFCs
Global ozone losses
1990s: CFC substitutes & Multilateral Fund
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Binding on dissenters: sovereignty?
Necessity for DC participation
 India & China to consume 1/3 CFCs by 2008
Grand bargain: participation for development aid
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Amending Montreal
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London, 1990: CFC phaseout by 2000
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Copenhagen, 1992: phaseout by 1996
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Phase out HCFCs by 2030
Bangkok, 1993: phase out methyl bromide
Montreal, 1997: ban MB by 2005 (IC’s)
Beijing, 1999: HCFC freeze @ 1989 levels
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Plus carbon tetrachloride & methyl chloroform
Multilateral ozone fund ($1 B since)
IC’s ban by 2004; DC’s by 2016
Compliance, black market
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Coming Attractions
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2010 ~ Total phase-out of CFCs, halons and
carbon tetrachloride in developing countries.
2015 ~ Total phase-out of methyl chloroform and
methyl bromide in developing countries.
2030 ~ Total phase-out of HCFCs in developed
countries.
2040 ~ Total phase-out of HCFCs in developing
countries
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Montreal Protocol Effectiveness
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The shining example of green diplomacy
Ozone hole
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Multilateral ozone fund
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1986: 14 million km2
2006: 28 million km2
Chlorine loading near its peak
At least a decade before it begins to heal
Predicted to be normal mid-century
$2.2 billion, 1991-2007
Considered very effective
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Relationship & contrast to climate change
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Scientists increasingly outspoken
Small, concentrated industry vs. the glue of
the global economy
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Science-led protocol amendment process
Norms of universal participation and
“common but differentiated responsibility”
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Availability of profitable substitutes
U.S. demands “universal participation” on
climate change
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