Transcript Saving the Ozone Layer

Saving the Ozone Layer
Science and the Evolution of
Precautionary Action
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Agenda Setting
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CFCs: the “miracle compound”
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Stratospheric ozone
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Non-toxic, chemically inert, many uses
Few makers (DuPont is #1)
O3 absorbs UV-radiation, which causes
skin cancer, cataracts, phytoplankton death…
1974 discovery: CFCs destroy ozone
1978: U.S., Canada, Nordic aerosol ban
1977-85: fact-finding, little action
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Science in the Ozone Negotiations
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Vienna Convention (1985)
Antarctic ozone hole (1986)
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Not predicted by models
Cause unknown; CFCs suspected
Negotiators advised to ignore it
Models predicted 7% ozone loss by 2050
Montreal Protocol (1987)
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U.S. vs. E.U.; virtually no DC participation
IC’s to cut CFCs in half by 2000
DC’s can increase CFC use for 10 years
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How did the ozone hole have an effect?
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Not predicted by models, opened door to
knew way of framing the knowledge
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Emerged when chlorine concentrations
reached 2 ppb
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“Chlorine-loading” scheme
Stabilizing Cl required 85% reduction
 U.S. position: 95% cutback
Montreal Protocol was not enough
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Beyond Montreal
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Amendments: 2/3 vote, majority of IC’s & DC’s
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1988: New Science
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Binding on dissenters: sovereignty?
Arctic “hole”
Antarctic hole linked to CFCs
Global ozone losses
1990s: CFC substitutes & Multilateral Fund
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Necessity for DC participation
 India & China to consume 1/3 CFCs by 2008
Grand bargain: participation for development aid
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Amending Montreal
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London, 1990: CFC phaseout by 2000
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Copenhagen, 1992: phaseout by 1996
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Phase out HCFCs by 2030
Bangkok, 1993: phase out methyl bromide
Montreal, 1997: ban MB by 2005 (IC’s)
Beijing, 1999: HCFC freeze @ 1989 levels
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Plus carbon tetrachloride & methyl chloroform
Multilateral ozone fund ($1 B since)
IC’s ban by 2004; DC’s by 2016
Compliance, black market
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Relationship & contrast to climate change
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Scientists increasingly outspoken
Small, concentrated industry vs. the glue of
the global economy
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Availability of profitable substitutes
Science-led protocol amendment process
Norms of universal participation and
“common but differentiated responsibility”
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U.S. demands “universal participation” on
climate change
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