2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference
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Transcript 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference
COP21
Presentation 4
Prediction for the Future
Ford & Eric
2 Degree Limit
General goal for climate change is to limit temperature
increase to 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial
temperatures
Put into writing at Cancun in 2010
William Nordhaus-1977
Suggested 2 degree limit keeps Earth within natural range
of fluctuation
Limits ecological damage because Earth’s temperature has
changed this much before
Currently predicted that we will exceed 2 degrees
2 Degree Limit
If reaching 2 degree limit, by 2100 predictions of
altered:
Marine ecosystems
Sea Level Rise
Weather patterns
Extreme storms, drought, wildfires
Agriculture
Reduction in yields of wheat, rice and corn in both
tropical and temperate regions
2 Degree Rise Video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0_gDXqYeQ
On a track for
A One Degree Rise
Not analyzing the average air temperature, but the
average surface temperature of the earth
Barely perceptible to human skin – but impactful in
balance of environment
Scary Fact from Ice Core samples:
In the last million years it has never been more than
one degree Celsius warmer than it is now
Solar Geoengineering
Study how to reduce solar
irradiation
Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)
Can we utilize the tech that all
trees use
We’re not advanced enough yet
Can plant trees
But not enough difference
would be made
Solar Geoengineering
Atmospheric Reflection
In 1991, Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines erupted
in one of the largest volcanic blasts of the 20th
century
Spat 20 million tons of sulfur into the atmosphere
Shielding earth from the sun’s rays
Causing global temperatures to drop by nearly a half
a degree Celsius in a single year
Volcanic Sulfur
Half a degree Celsius is the same amount the planet
has warmed in the last 50 years
Scientists have considered replicating the event to
counteract global warming
Using a fleet of jets to inject sulfate aerosols high into
the atmosphere to block a portion of the sun’s rays
However, there could be serious unintended
environmental consequences
Wouldn’t reduce CO2 levels
COP21 Goals
Legal force – provide consequences for not meeting
targets
Ensure Green Climate Fund is adequately financed
Differentiation – set goals for all nations, not just
developed ones
Focus on adaptation to inevitable climate change
Let negotiations be transparent
Attempt to meet our 2 degree goal
COP21 Predictions
Most experts think that a new international treaty
will be signed
Update or replacement for Kyoto Protocol
Only 32% think it will have legally binding authority
Low confidence in ability to meet 2 degree goal
Ending of subsidies for fossil fuel companies
important
Much of the burden will fall on businesses
Governments pass their goals along to private sector
Climate Change Activism
About 570,000 in rallies
worldwide
Urging change and showing
public support
London: 50,000 in march
from Hyde Park to
Whitehall
Link to Brandalism
movement
Reducing the amount of
corporate advertising
Showing link between
corporate culture and
pollution
Sources
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-34956825
http://www.sustainability.com/news/expertsconfident-that-cop21-will-lead-to-an-internationalagreement-predict-that-business-will-be-key-to-itsimplementation-post-2015#.VluX9fnhDtQ
http://www.theenergycollective.com/falwellp/219
3591/core-issues-paris-climate-talks