Transcript Melanie Duncan

Multi-hazard assessments for building
sustainable and resilient communities
UCL-CAFOD partnership
Melanie Duncan
UCL EngD Candidate
([email protected])
“The only thing that is certain (in climate
science) is that there will be surprises.”
(SEI in FIC and HFP, 2010: 10)
Climate Change in Context
Climate
Change
Climate Change
Source: c12, Shutterstock
Resource
missmanagement
Resource mismanagement
Source: Antonio V. Oquias , Shutterstock
Geophysical
Hazards
Geophysical Hazards
Source: Zastol`skiy Victor Leonidovich, Shutterstock
Man-made
Hazards
Man-made hazards
Source: SOPHII.org
Multi-hazards
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Hyogo Framework for Action
Academia/ research
Funding bodies
NGOs
Need to capture:
 Feedbacks and interrelations between hazards
 Dynamic nature of hazards across time and space
Source: kentoh, Shutterstock
CCA and DRR Debate
• Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)
• Climate Change Adaptation (CCA)
– Overlaps
– Interactions
– Discrepancies
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•
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DRR
Role of science?
• Participatory
Indigenous Knowledge
• (H)VCA
Integration
Multi-hazard
Interdisciplinary
Scaling up
Mainstreaming
CCA
• External
knowledge
and science
Source: Christian Aid (2010: 6)
Process
Indigenous
knowledge
Science
Vulnerability/
capacity
assessment
User
Appropriate
Intervention
Current approaches to Hazard Assessment
How do NGOs currently assess hazards?
• London based interviews with:
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INGOs
Consultants
Research Institutions
Donor organisations
• Desk studies and literature review
• Observations during workshops
Themes
• Integrated sustainable development;
Integrated risk management
• CCA and DRR are perceived to overlap
• Tools
• Science
• Single vs. multi-hazard
• Scale
• Feedback and evaluation
• ‘Add-ons’
Systems thinking
• Complexities
– Multi-hazard
– Scenarios/ long-term
perspective
– Scale of analysis
– Need to shift from
impact to cause
– Multi-stakeholder/ multisector
• Systems theory
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–
–
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Inherent and emergent
System dynamics
Multi-scale
Argues against linear,
event-orientated views
– Necessitates an
interdisciplinary
approach
The Philippines
• Recent field visit to:
– Metro Manila
– Albay Province
– Mindanao
Hazard Assessments
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Multi-hazards: individual hazards collectively
Exacerbating effects of land degradation
Contextualisation of climate change
DRR and CCA
Science and indigenous knowledge integration:
– Individual/ organisational
– Source of science
• Scale
• Feedback and evaluation
Source: author’s own
Emergent Themes
• Political vs. natural systems
Source: adapted from wowlegaspi.com
Source: author’s own
Emergent Themes
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Political vs. natural systems
Source of science
Emphasis on disaster response and preparedness
Hazards
Integration – development planning and water basin
management
• Target audience?
– Process
– Dialogue
Source: author’s own
Process
Framework: Defining
the system?
Source?
Indigenous
knowledge
Science
Multi-level?
Vulnerability/
capacity
assessment
Users
Appropriate
Intervention
The way forward
• What is the hazard?
– Scientific, contextualised, analytical approaches
• Process: multi-hazard assessment
• Framework: systems theory
– Naturally integrates concepts
– Avoids linear, impact oriented approaches
– Scenario planning
• Trial process in the New Year
Any Questions?
[email protected]
References
Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) in Feinstein International Center (FIP) and Humanitarian Futures Programme
(HFP) 2010 Humanitarian Horizons: A Practitioners’ Guide to the Future [available online:
http://www.humanitarianfutures.org/main/sites/default/files/Final_web_PGF.pdf last accessed: 15/11/10]
Christian Aid, 2010. Integrating climate change adaptation into secure livelihoods, Adaptation Toolkit 1.
International Council for Science (ICSU), 2010. A Science Plan for Integrated Research on Disaster Risk Addressing
the challenge of natural and human-induced environmental hazards [available online:
http://www.icsu.org/Gestion/img/ICSU_DOC_DOWNLOAD/2121_DD_FILE_Hazard_report.pdf last accessed:
18/11/10]
Bibliography
Allenby, B. (2007). Earth systems engineering management. Environmental Science and Technology 41(23): 79607965.
Hjorth, P. and A. Bagheri (2006). Navigating towards sustainable development: A system dynamics approach.
Futures 38(1): 74-92.
Waltner-Toews, D. K., James K.; Marie-E Lister, Nina (2008). The ecosystem approach: complexity, uncertainty, and
managing for sustainability. Chichester.