Transcript Special Report on Emission Scenario`s

Climate Change: adaptation,
mitigation and the statistical
system
The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
Peter Bosch
TSU IPCC WG III
IPCC
IPCC Working group I, the physical
science basis
• ….Most of the observed increase in globally
averaged temperatures since the mid-21th
century is very likely due to the observed
increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas
concentrations…..
IPCC
IPCC Working group II, impacts,
adaptation and vulnerability
• …. Observational evidence from all
continents and most oceans shows that
many natural systems are being affected by
regional climate changes, particularly
temperature increases…..
IPCC
IPCC Working group III, mitigation
• …. There is substantial economic potential
for the mitigation of global GHG emissions
over the coming decades, that could offset
the projected growth of global emissions or
reduce emissions below current levels…..
IPCC
G8 conclusions of the chair:
Climate Change, Energy Efficiency and Energy
Security:
……………... We noted with concern the recent
IPCC report and its findings. We are convinced
that urgent and concerted action is needed and
accept our responsibility to show leadership in
tackling climate change. ………….
IPCC
IPCC Working group II, impacts,
adaptation and vulnerability
Water availability projections:
• 10-40% up in high latitudes & some wet tropical
areas
• 10-30% down in dry regions in mid latitudes and
in the dry tropics
More drought, more flood risk
IPCC
IPCC Working group II, impacts,
adaptation and vulnerability
Crop productivity:
• Projected to increase slightly at mid to
high latitudes (with +1-3 ºC)
depending on the crop
• Projected to decrease at lower
latitudes, esp. in seasonally dry and
tropical regions, for even small temp.
increases (1-2 ºC)
Adaptations: altered cultivars and planting times
IPCC
IPCC Working group II, impacts,
adaptation and vulnerability
Forestry:
• Globally commercial timber
productivity projected to increase
modestly in short-medium term
Fisheries:
• Regional changes in distribution and
production of fish species. Adverse
effects for aquaculture and fisheries
IPCC
IPCC Working group II, impacts,
adaptation and vulnerability
Settlements
• Most vulnerable industries, settlements and
societies in coastal and river flood plains.
Human health:
• Increase in malnutrition
• Increased death, injury, disease due to extreme
events
• Increased burden of diarrhoeal disease
• Altered distribution of infectious disease factors
IPCC
Summarising: with a view on
adaptation to climate change
increasing interest in:
Agricultural statistics
Forestry statistics
Fisheries statistics
Population statistics
Health statistics
Energy statistics
IPCC
IPCC Working group III,
mitigation of climate change
Total GHG emissions
GtCO2-eq/yr
60
55
50
45
Between 1970 and
2004 global
greenhouse gas
emissions have
increased by 70 %
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1970
1980
1990
2000 2004
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Carbon dioxide
is the largest
contributor
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With current climate change mitigation
policies, global GHG emissions will continue
to grow over the next few decades
180
160
140
180
120
160
F-Gases
140
N2O
CH4
120
CO2
100
80
60
A1F1
A2
A1B
A1T
B1
B2
95th
75th
median
25th
5th
40
20
GtCO2eq/yr
A1F1
A2
A1B
A1T
B1
B2
95th
0
2000
2000
100
A2
A1F1
B2
A1B
A1T
B1
95th
75th
median
25th
5th
• IPCC SRES
scenarios:
80
25-90 %60
increase40of GHG
20
emissions
0
in 2030 relative to
2000
2030
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Economic mitigation potential until 2030 could
offset the projected growth of global emissions, or
reduce emissions below current levels
• Both bottom-up and top-down studies
TOP-DOWN
BOTTOM-UP
Global economic potential in 2030
Note: estimates do not include non-technical options such as lifestyle changes
IPCC
What does US$ 50/ tCO2eq mean?
• Crude oil: ~US$ 25/ barrel
• Gasoline: ~12 ct/ litre (50 ct/gallon)
• Electricity:
– from coal fired plant: ~5 ct/kWh
– from gas fired plant: ~1.5 ct/kWh
IPCC
All sectors and regions have the
potential to contribute (end-use based)
Note: estimates do not include non-technical options, such as lifestyle changes.
IPCC
How can emissions be reduced?
Key mitigation technologies and
practices currently commercially
available. (Selected)
Energy efficiency; fuel switching; nuclear
Supply power; renewable (hydropower,
solar, wind, geothermal and
bioenergy); combined heat and
power; early applications of CO2
Capture and Storage (CCS)
Key mitigation technologies and
practices projected to be
commercialized before 2030. (Selected)
CCS for gas, biomass and coal-fired
electricity generating facilities;
advanced nuclear power;
advanced renewables (tidal and wave
energy, concentrating solar, solar PV)
IPCC
How can emissions be reduced?
Transport
(Selected) Key mitigation
technologies and practices
currently commercially
available.
Key mitigation technologies and
practices projected to be
commercialized before 2030.
(Selected)
More fuel efficient vehicles;
hybrid vehicles; biofuels;
modal shifts from road
transport to rail and public
transport systems; cycling,
walking; land-use planning
Second generation biofuels; higher
efficiency aircraft; advanced
electric and hybrid vehicles with
more powerful and reliable
batteries
IPCC
How can emissions be reduced?
Sector
(Selected) Key mitigation
technologies and practices
currently commercially
available.
Key mitigation technologies and
practices projected to be
commercialized before 2030.
(Selected)
Industry
More efficient electrical
equipment; heat and power
recovery; material
recycling; control of nonCO2 gas emissions
Advanced energy efficiency; CCS
for cement, ammonia, and iron
manufacture; inert electrodes for
aluminium manufacture
Buildings
Efficient lighting; efficient
appliances and
airconditioners; improved
insulation ; solar heating
and cooling; alternatives
for fluorinated gases in
insulation and appliances
Integrated design of commercial
buildings including technologies,
such as intelligent meters that
provide feedback and control;
solar PV integrated in buildings
IPCC
Changes in lifestyle and behaviour patterns
can contribute to climate change mitigation
• Changes in occupant
behaviour, cultural
patterns and consumer
choice in buildings.
• Behaviour of staff in
industrial organizations in
light of reward systems
• Reduction of car usage
and efficient driving style,
in relation to urban
planning and availability
of public transport
IPCC
What are the macro-economic costs in 2030?
•Costs are global average for least cost approaches from top-down
models
•Costs do not include co-benefits and avoided climate change damages
Trajectories
towards
stabilization
levels
(ppm CO2-eq)
Median
GDP
reduction[1]
(%)
Range of GDP
reduction [2]
(%)
Reduction of average
annual GDP growth
rates [3]
(percentage points)
590-710
0.2
-0.6 – 1.2
< 0.06
535-590
0.6
0.2 – 2.5
<0.1
Not available
<3
< 0.12
445-535[4]
[1] This is global GDP based market exchange rates.
[2] The median and the 10th and 90th percentile range of the analyzed data are given.
[3] The calculation of the reduction of the annual growth rate is based on the average reduction during the period till 2030
that would result in the indicated GDP decrease in 2030.
[4] The number of studies that report GDP results is relatively small and they generally use low baselines.
IPCC
There are also co-benefits of mitigation
• Near–term health benefits from reduced air
pollution may offset a substantial fraction of
mitigation costs
• Mitigation can also be positive for: energy
security, balance of trade improvement,
provision of modern energy services to rural
areas, sustainable agriculture and employment
IPCC
Stabilisation of GHG concentrations
(radiative forcing) in the atmosphere and
emission reductions
• The lower the stabilisation level the earlier global CO2
emissions have to peak
Post-SRES (max)
35
Stabilization targets:
D: 710-850 ppm CO2-eq
Wold CO2 Emissions (GtC)
C: 590-710 ppm CO2-eq
25
B: 535-590 ppm CO2-eq
A2: 490-535 ppm CO2-eq
A1: 445-490 ppm CO2-eq
20
15
10
5
Post-SRES (min)
0
-5
Equilibrium global mean temperature
increase over preindustrial (°C)
E: 850-1130 ppm CO2-eq
30
Multigas and CO2
only studies combined
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
IPCC
GHG concen
An effective carbon-price signal could realise
significant mitigation potential in all sectors
• Policies that provide a real or implicit price of carbon could
create incentives for producers and consumers to significantly
invest in low-GHG products, technologies and processes.
• Such policies could include economic instruments,
government funding and regulation
• For stabilisation at around 550 ppm CO2eq carbon prices
should reach 20-80 US$/tCO2eq by 2030
(5-65 if “induced technological change” happens)
• At these carbon prices large shifts of investments into low
carbon technologies can be expected
IPCC
Investments
• Energy infrastructure investment decisions, (20 trillion
US$ till 2030) will have long term impacts on GHG
emissions.
• The widespread diffusion of low-carbon technologies
may take many decades, even if early investments in
these technologies are made attractive.
IPCC
The importance of technology policies
• The lower the stabilization levels (550 ppm CO2-eq or
lower) the greater the need for more efficient RD&D
efforts and investment in new technologies during the
next few decades
• Government support is important for effective
technology development, innovation and deployment
• BUT, government funding for most energy research
programmes has been declining for nearly two
decades: now about half of 1980 level.
IPCC
Summarising: with a view on mitigation
of climate change increasing interest in:
Environment statistics (emissions, waste management,
environmental expenditures)
Energy balances
Transport statistics (modal split, fuel use, types and length of
journeys)
Land-use statistics (aff/deforestation)
Agricultural & Forestry statistics: (energy crops production,
area changes, management changes)
Trade statistics (flows of energy and energy crops)
National Accounts (system integration to produce various
efficiency indicators, information for decomposition
analysis, dedicated R&D expenditures
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