Transcript Mr G. Pröhl

Conclusion of the 5th EU Framework Projects
BIOCLIM and BioMoSA for Performance
Assessments of Radioactive Waste Disposals
G. Pröhl
GSF-National Research Centre for Environment
and Health, Neuherberg Germany
D. Texier
ANDRA – Agence Nationale pour la gestion des
Déchets Radioactif, France
EURADWASTE’04, Luxembourg, 31 March 2004
Institute of Radiation Protection
Underlying problem
• Radioactive waste needs to be isolated from the
environment and humans
• Regulatory standards
– Adequate isolation of radioactive from biosphere and
humans
– Limitation of possible radiological consequences due
to hypothetical releases of radionuclides to the
environment
• Demonstration of compliance
• Biosphere changes with time: Impact of climate
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BioMoSA
Biosphere Models for Safety Assessment of
Radioactive Waste Disposal based on the Application
of the Reference Biosphere Methodology
• 2-year EU 5th framework project
• December 2001- November 2003
• 6 participants
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–
–
–
–
–
GSF, Germany (Coordinator)
CIEMAT, Spain
NRPB, UK
SCK CEN, Belgium
Studsvik EcoSafe, Sweden
University Veszprem, Hungary
Institute of Radiation Protection
BIOCLIM
Modelling sequential BIOsphere systems
under CLIMate change
for radioactive waste disposal
Objectives and scopes
D. Texier
ANDRA - Agence Nationale pour la gestion des Déchets Radioactifs,
France.
EURADWASTE’04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg
Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas
C TR ASMG 04-0028
Objectives of BioMoSA
• Development of site-specific biosphere models
for 5 sites in Europe using the BIOMASS
Reference Biosphere Methodology
• Comparison of structure, results and
uncertainties
• Development of a generic biosphere
assessment tool
• Compare site-specific and generic models
• Identify relevant site-specific and generic
features, events and processes
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BioMoSA – assumptions and endpoints
• Assessment as realistic as possible
• Present day conditions
– Technology, society, living habits
• Radionuclides (incl. daughters)
– Cl-36, Se-79, Tc-99, I-129, Cs-135,
Ra-226, Pa-231, Np-237, U-238, Pu-239
• Time frame
– 90 % of equilibrium in soil achieved
• Annual effective doses
– infants and adults
– Uncertainty of doses
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Sites considered
• Hungary:
– Intensive agriculture
– Cold winters, hot summers
– Pronounced rain deficit during the vegetation period
• Spain
– Extensive land use
– Mild winters, hot and very dry summers
• Belgium, Germany
– Intensive agriculture
– Mild winters, cool summers
– Low to moderate precipitation deficit
• Sweden
– Extensive agriculture
– Cold winters and cool summers,
– Little precipitation deficit
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Institute of Radiation Protection
Geosphere Biosphere Interface
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•
•
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Belgium:
Germany:
Hungary:
Spain:
• Sweden:
• Generic:
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well, river
well
well lake
well, dam, river,
sub-surface soil
well, lake, sub-surface soil
all possible interfaces
Example:
Use of radioactively contaminated
well water: Exposure Pathways
• Ingestion
– Drinking water for humans
– Watering cattle
– Irrigation of crops
– Fish consumption
• Inhalation of contaminated dust
• External exposure
– Contaminated arable land
– Contaminated river/sediments
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• Model setup
– Site-specific parameters
• Exposure / Activity in well/surface
water
– [Sv/a per Bq/m³]
Institute of Radiation Protection
Normalized exposure to adults
(mSv/a per Bq/m³)
1E-2
Belgium
Spain
Germany
Hungary
1E-4
Sweden
1E-5
1E-6
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Tc
-99
I-1
29
Cs
-13
5
Ra
-22
6
Pa
-2 3
1
U23
8
Np
-23
7
Pu
-2 3
9
Se
-7 9
1E-7
Cl
-36
Normalised exposure
(mSv/a per Bq/m³)
1E-3
Well scenario, stochastic calculations:
Ratio 95/5-percentile of adult exposure
1000
100
Belgium
Espana
Germany
Hungary
10
1
6 79 99 2 9 3 5 2 6 31 38 3 7 39
3
2
1
2
2
2
I-1 s - a - a- U-2 p- uCl Se Tc
C
R
P
P
N
Institute of Radiation Protection
Sweden
Generic model
• Development of a generic model
– Contains all FEPs
– Contains all Geosphere-Biosphere-Interfaces
• Comparison against site-specific models
• Identification of important pathways
• Suggestions for model simplification
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German site, well scenario
Pu-239
Np-237
U-238
Pa-231
Ra-226
Cs-135
I-129
Tc-99
Se-79
Cl-36
5th and 95th percentile infant total dose
1.00E+00
Total dose (mSv)
1.00E-01
1.00E-02
Germany_nrpb 5%
1.00E-03
Germany_nrpb 95%
1.00E-04
Germany 5%
Germany 95%
1.00E-05
1.00E-06
1.00E-07
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Conclusions I
• Drinking water dominating
• In general, little differences between sites
• Uncertainty
– Ratio 95/5 percentile around a factor of 10
• Some parameters need reconsideration
– Cl-36, Se-79, I-129
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•
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•
Root uptake
Migration
Transfer to milk and meat
Parameters partly conflicting
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Conclusions II
• Generic model provides acceptable
agreement with site-specific model
• Larger uncertainties for releases to
– Lakes
– Marine
– Deep soil
• Transfer is more complex
– More site-specific
– More difficult to generalize
– Poor data
Institute of Radiation Protection
BIOCLIM
http://www.andra.fr/bioclim
•A 3-years European project under the 5th Framework Program
• October 2000 - December 2003
• Coordinator : ANDRA
• 12 participants (UK, B, D, CZ, SP, FR)
•Technical Secretariat : ENVIROS Quantisci (UK)
• 5 Work Packages
• 13 deliverables : available on the project web site
EURADWASTE’04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg
Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas
C TR ASMG 04-0028
BIOCLIM : Objectives
To provide a scientific basis and practical methodology
for assessing
the potential impacts of long-term climate change
on Biosphere characteristics
in the context of radiological Performance Assessments (PAs)
 For 5 regions of interest in Europe
 Over the next 1 million years
 Quantitative scenarios of climate changes numerically produced
 Narrative descriptions of future Biosphere changes (states + transitions)
EURADWASTE’04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg
Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas
C TR ASMG 04-0028
BIOCLIM : Regions of interest
Central England
(51.6°-54.8°N; 0-2.8°W)
Bure
(48.6°N; 5.7°E)
Czech Republic
(48°55’N-49°28’N;
15°E-15°35’E)
Toledo Area
(38°-41°51’ N; 1°30’-6°30’ W)
Padul Peat Bog
(37°N; 3°40 ’W)
Cullar-Baza Basin
(37°20 ’-37°55 ’; 2°20 ’-2°50 ’W)
EURADWASTE’04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg
Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas
C TR ASMG 04-0028
Representation of Biosphere Systems
Changes: States and Transitions
Climate
Present day Biosphere
Soils Human Water Bodies Topography
Biota
T1
T2
T3
Climate
Biota
Soils Human Water Bodies Topography
Future Biosphere
EURADWASTE’04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg
Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas
C TR ASMG 04-0028
BIOCLIM : Work Packages
WP1 : Consolidation of the Needs
WP2 : Hierarchical strategy
= snapshots
WP3: Integrated strategy
= sequences
Global scale
Regional scale
WP4 : Biosphere systems description
(constant + transitional)
WP5 : Dissemination of results
EURADWASTE’04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg
Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas
C TR ASMG 04-0028
Numerical Experiments
more likely situations – not extreme
Transient sequences of future climate & vegetation patterns (WP3)
•The next 1000kyr (zoom on +200 kyr) for 3 different CO2 scenarios :
• Scenario 1: natural CO2 variations only
• Scenarios 2 & 3: natural CO2 variations + Fossil Fuel Contribution
Snapshots of future climate & vegetation patterns (WP2)
A very near future : high atmospheric [CO2] with or without ice sheets
• A super interglacial (67kyr AP) : high insolation, high atmospheric [CO2], no
ice sheets
• A glacial maximum (178kyr AP) : low [CO2] , large ice sheets
EURADWASTE’04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg
Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas
C TR ASMG 04-0028
An example of climate scenario
at regional scale :
The French natural climate evolution
DOWNSCALLING
METHOD
Simulation of future climate evolution at global scale
+
Reconstruction of past regional climate conditions
Climate classes :
A4: Northeast France
40
(Køppen/Trewartha classification)
35
30
Temperate oceanic
Index
25
20
Boreal
15
10
Periglacial
5
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Toundra
Time (ka AP)
EURADWASTE’04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg
Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas
C TR ASMG 04-0028
Narrative descriptions of
future biosphere changes
• Descriptions of the potential next 200 ka biosphere system evolution
developped for each region of interest.
• Possible impact of anthropogenic driven climate perturbation.
•combined transient /
•snap-shots climate simulations, and
• the regional environmental paleo reconstructions.
• Future states of biosphere identified. Transitions between these states
described.
• Importance of accounting for transition time laps discussed.
=> See BIOCLIM D10-12 report
EURADWASTE’04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg
Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas
C TR ASMG 04-0028
Conclusions (1)
• BIOCLIM provides a comprehensive methodology to
integrate climate-driven environmental change to
biosphere modelling of performance assessments
• BIOCLIM has provided many data for climate modelling
for Europe – these may used as source if climate change
should be included in performance assessments
• National organisations may complement these results with
their own studies
• Several climate-change scenarios can be combined to give
a number of biosphere states and transitions for analysis
EURADWASTE’04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg
Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas
C TR ASMG 04-0028
Conclusions (2)
• States and transitions provide an appropriate framework
for developing structured descriptions of environmental
change
• The BIOMASS methodology was found to be appropriate
for characterising biosphere states
• State descriptions may be the basis for biosphere models
• Radiological evaluation of the states and transitions are
needed by setting up appropriate simulation models
EURADWASTE’04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg
Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas
C TR ASMG 04-0028
Conclusions (3)
• More work remains to identify key aspects of transitions
for performance assessment purposes and show their
integration in assessment models
• This framework has been applied only to the biosphere –
it would be equally applicable to the geosphere
• It would be useful to extend the methodology to include
other human and Earth system processes that cause
environmental change.
• Some aspects are being studied in the BIOPROTA
Project
EURADWASTE’04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg
Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas
C TR ASMG 04-0028
For more information, please contact :
http://www.andra.fr/bioclim
Delphine Texier, Andra, France (Co-ordinator of BIOCLIM and WP 1 & 5),
[email protected]
Marie-France Loutre, UCL/ASTR, Belgium (Co-ordinator of WP2),
[email protected]
Didier Paillard, CEA/LSCE, France (Co-ordinator of WP3),
[email protected]
Paul Degnan, NIREX, UK (Co-ordinator of WP4),
[email protected]
EURADWASTE’04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg
Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas
C TR ASMG 04-0028