Transcript Migration and the Pursuit of Graduate Jobs

Migration and the Pursuit of Graduate Jobs
by
Irene Mosca
Robert E. Wright
Department of Economics
University of Strathclyde
November 4, 2009
“Making An Impact – Universities and the Regional Economy”
Woburn House Conference Centre, London
Introduction
One of our objectives is to quantify the nature of graduate labour
market flows between the countries and regions of the United
Kingdom
Why?
•Not a great deal is known about this.
•Regional focus: England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales
•Export and import of graduates equally interesting as the export and import
of goods and services
•Such Information is being fed into the CGE analysis
Slide 2/23
Policy Relevance: Scotland
• Concern with depopulation of rural and remote regions of Scotland
• Migration flows of students and graduates thought to “reinforce”
migration flows of general population (north and west to the east)
• “Belief” that building HEIs in rural and remote regions will help reverse
these trends
•Costs versus benefits of “free higher education”
•Over-education and under-employment issues
Slide 3/23
Figure 1
Net-migration, Scotland, 1951-2007
50,000
40,000
30,000
Number of people
20,000
10,000
0
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
-10,000
-20,000
-30,000
Year
-40,000
-50,000
Source: General Register Office for Scotland
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Figure 2
Number of Higher Education Students,
Scotland, 1994/95-2007/08
300,000
280,000
260,000
240,000
Number of students
220,000
200,000
180,000
160,000
Higher Education Institutions only
140,000
All institutions
120,000
100,000
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Source: Higher Education Statistical Agency/ Scottish Government
2000
2001
Year
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Table 1
Percentage Growth Rates of Various Higher Education Student Groups,
1994/95-2007/08
Type of Student:
Scotland
UK
Full-time
26.2
37.5
Part-time
99.6
68.3
Under-graduates
38.1
46.5
Post-graduates
51.5
49.4
Foreign
100.4
108.8
Science
55.7
66.4
Non-science
30.3
36.2
All students
41.2
47.1
Source: Higher Education Statistical Agency
Table 2
Place of Domicile of Students at Scottish Higher Education Institutes,
1994/05 and 2007/08
1994/05
2007/08
Place of domicile:
Numbers
%
Numbers
%
Scotland
103,426
69.5
148,460
70.6
England
20,819
14.0
21,560
10.3
Northern Ireland
4,443
3.0
4,800
2.3
645
0.4
675
0.3
16,915
11.4
33,895
16.1
2,660
1.8
795
0.4
148,908
100
210,185
100
Wales
Foreign
Missing
All
Source: Higher Education Statistical Agency
Figure 3
Higher Education Age Participation Index
Scotland, 1983/84 to 2006/7
60
55
50
45
Percentage
40
35
30
25
Both
Male
Female
50 per cent
20
15
1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: Scottish Government
Year
Figure 4
Higher Education Students per 1,000 Population
Scotland and UK, 1994/95-2007/08
45
43
41
Scotland
UK
Per 1,000 population
39
37
35
33
31
29
27
25
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
Source: Higher Education Statistical Agency
1999
2000
2001
Year
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Data
Higher Education Statistical Agency (HESA) is the official agency for
the collection, analysis and dissemination of quantitative information
about higher education in the UK.
Match data from three datasets:
(1) Students in Higher Education Institutions
(2) Destinations of Leavers from Higher Education Institutions
•13 cohorts of graduates: 1994/95 to 2006/2007
(3) Destinations of Leavers From Higher Education Longitudinal Survey
•1 cohort of graduates: 2002/03
Slide 10/23
The HESA data provide four key postal addresses:
(1) Place of domicile
(2) Place of study
(3) Place of employment: Six months after graduation
(4) Place of employment: 36 months after graduation
This allows us to identify different migration types:
“movers versus stayers”
Table 3
Place of Domicile/Place of Study Matrix
Place of Study
England
England
Scotland
Place
of Domicile
Wales
NI
Scotland
Wales
NI
100%
100%
100%
100%
Table 4
Place of Study/Place of Employment Six Months Matrix
Place of Employment Six months
England
England
Place
of Study
Scotland
Wales
NI
Scotland
Wales
NI
100%
100%
100%
100%
Table 5
Place of Study/Place of Employment Six Months Matrix
Place of Employment 36 months
England
England
Place
of Employment
Six Months
Scotland
Wales
NI
Scotland
Wales
NI
100%
100%
100%
100%
Table 6
Percentage of Graduates Whose Place of
Work is the Same as Their Place of Study (6 months)
England
Scotland
Wales
Northern Ireland
Source: HESA
2002-03
97.3
85.6
64.0
94.3
2003-04
97.5
86.0
62.1
94.5
2004-05
97.5
86.0
62.1
94.5
2005-06
97.4
87.7
64.0
94.5
Table 7
Percentage of Graduates From Different Regions
Working in England (6 months), 2005/06
Scotland
Wales
Northern Ireland
Source: HESA
2002-03
12.6
35.2
4.7
2003-04
12.2
37.0
4.3
2004-05
11.6
35.0
4.2
2005-06
10.8
35.3
4.3
What are the determinants of graduate migration flows?
• Fit logit regression models where the probability of migrating is related to
observable characteristics
• Analysis for today focuses on the Scottish experience
• Today concerned mainly with Scottish-domiciled graduates who studied at
Scottish higher education institutions
• Consider “First-degree graduates” and “post-graduate graduates” separately
• Fit similar models for England, Northern Ireland and Wales for comparative
purposes
FINDINGS
Scottish-domiciled “first-degree graduates”:
Probability of migrating to England or Wales or Northern Ireland after
graduation is higher for:
•Male
•Full-time
•Black ethnic background
•Graduated at age 22 (inverted U-shape)
•Science (or Science-led)
•1st Class degree
•Russell Group university
•Moved to go to HEI
•Regional effect (higher for Strathclyde region)
•Decline between 2002-2006
Scottish-domiciled “post-graduate graduates”
Probability of migrating to England or Wales or Northern Ireland after
graduation is higher for:
•Male
•Full-time
•Non-white ethnic background
•Graduated at age 26 (inverted U-shape)
•Science (or Science-led)
•Russell Group university
•Moved to go to HEI
•Regional effects of domicile less pronounced
•Little change in 2002-2006
How big are these effects?
STEP 1: Create an hypothetical (first degree) graduate with the “average” characteristics of
Scottish graduates and use the logit model estimates to “predict” the probability of migrating .
GRADUATE “A”
STEP (2) Create another hypothetical (first degree) graduate with the following characteristics:
•Male
•Full-time
•White ethnic background
•Graduated at age 22
•Science
•1st Class degree
•Russell Group university
and use the logit model estimates to “predict” the probability of migrating . GRADUATE “B”
STEP (3) Compare the difference in the predicted probabilities
Predicted Probability of Migrating :
Scottish-domiciled undergraduate graduates
Scotland
Graduate A
Graduate B
3.9%
21.5%
Predicted Probability of Migrating :
Scottish-domiciled undergraduate graduates
Graduate A
Graduate B
Scotland
3.9%
21.5%
England
0.8%
2.0%
Northern Ireland
8.1%
26.7%
Wales
3.1%
11.4%
Conclusions?