Transcript Free Agent Performance

Do Players Outperform In
Their Free-Agent Year?
Phil Birnbaum
www.philbirnbaum.com
Free Agent Performance
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Do players outperform in the year
before free agency ("contract year")?
Conventional Wisdom says "yes"
By "trying harder" that year, players
immediately turn their effort into higher
salaries
John Burkett
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John Burkett Component ERA
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
5.44
5.28
2.86
4.95
4.41
(contract year)
But, Jeff Fassero
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Jeff Fassero Component ERA
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
3.60
4.10
8.02
5.25
2.97
(contract year)
Jack Clark
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Jack Clark RC27 (avg-HR-RBI)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
7.15
5.58
11.08
5.98
7.11
(.281-22- 87)
(.237- 9- 23)
(.286-35-106)
(.242-27- 93)
(.242-26- 94)
But, Terry Pendleton
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Terry Pendleton RC27 (avg-HR-RBI)
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
3.43
4.07
2.81
6.73
5.79
(.253- 6- 53)
(.264-13- 74)
(.230- 6- 58)
(.319-22- 86)
(.311-21-105)
Effect not obvious
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For every example of a sudden
contract-year star, there’s a
counterexample of a contract-year
collapse
Need a systematic study
How to figure it?
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What is evidence for a player having a
better contract year?
Can’t go by the raw numbers because
of aging effects
Aging
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Free agents tend to be older players
Older players are on the decline
A 35-year-old in his contract year would
be "outperforming" just by keeping his
numbers the same was when he was 34
Methodology
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Used the "luck" algorithm
Calculates expectation based on two
previous seasons, two following seasons
35-year-old compared to his numbers at
33, 34, 36, and 37
Takes care of regression to mean
Predicts fairly accurately for all ages
The Study
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If players deliberately find ways to
outperform in their contract year, they
should appear to be "lucky" by this
algorithm
Calculated for all contract years to 2001
Thanks to Retrosheet for free-agent
transaction info
Results: Hitters
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All contract year hitters, 1977-2001
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Only hitters with 300+ batting outs
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Season outperformance: -0.1 runs
Season outperformance: +1.9 runs
Same, normalized to 400 batting outs
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Season outperformance: +2.2 runs
Results: Pitchers
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All contract year pitchers, 1977-2001
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Only pitchers with 100+ innings
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Season outperformance: -0.2 runs
Season outperformance: +0.6 runs
Same, normalized to 200 innings
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Season outperformance: -1.1 runs
No evidence of any effect
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Results indistinguishable from zero
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Statistical significance not met
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For instance, standard error of pitching
estimate –1.1 runs is 0.8 runs
Algorithm is not 100% precise
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… but it’s pretty good: within 1-2 runs per
season for regular players
No evidence (cont’d)
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Possible bias in data
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Players who retire after contract year (because
they lost effectiveness) are not counted,
biasing the sample higher
Players who re-sign before the end of the
season are not included in the sample
Including only regulars biases data in positive
direction – players who are struggling won’t
make 100 IP or 300 batting outs
More Results
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Batters, min. 300 batting outs, normalized to 400
batting outs
 Contract year:
+2.2 runs
 Everyone else:
+1.1 runs
Pitchers, min. 100 IP, normalized to 200 IP
 Contract year:
-1.1 runs
 Everyone else:
+2.6 runs
Other Studies
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"Baseball Between the Numbers," Chapter 5.3, "Do
Players Perform Better in Contract Years?" by Dayn
Perry
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Found "genuine phenomenon" of about half a win per
season (5 runs!)
But – used "prominent free agents" – not a full or random
sample
"Prominent" after the fact may have biased the results
upward
Other Studies
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"The Influence of Free-Agent Filing on MLB Player
Performance," Atlantic Economic Journal, Dec. 2005, Evan C.
Holden and Paul M. Sommers
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Used 2003 only, but examined every player filing for free agency
Found no significant contract year effect, but found that
performance decreased significantly in the year after
Effectively, the authors don’t discuss the "contract year" issue so
much as the decline following
"… youngest players exhibit the smallest decline, largely because
they (unlike their older counterparts) will have the opportunity to
sign another contract before they retire."
Could the effect be simply due to player aging?
Other Studies
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"Shirking or Stochastic Productivity in Major League Baseball?",
Southern Economic Journal, April 1990, Anthony Krautmann
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Checked all free agents, 1976-1983, who signed 5+ year free-agent
contracts
Counted the number of players with significantly outlying performances in
contract years, and following years
Found only the expected number of such players
Conclusion: no evidence for the contract-year effect
"A Test of Additional Effort Expenditure in the "Walk Year" for
Major League Baseball Players," Benjamin D. Grad
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Regressed performance on a bunch of variables including contract year
No effect found for contract year
Pitchers with best/worst free-agent years
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+44 – John Burkett, 2001
+39 – Darryl Kile, 1997
+35 – Danny Darwin, 1996
-57 – Jeff Fassero, 1999
-39 – David Cone, 2000
-33 – Kevin Brown, 1994
Hitters with best/worst free-agent years
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+40 – Bret Boone, 2001
+38 – Albert Belle, 1998
+37 – Mark McGwire, 1992
-38 – Delino Deshields, 1996
-34 – Johnny Damon, 2001
-32 – Roberto Alomar, 1998