Transcript Seeing I to Eye - Archive

Seeing I to Eye
Peter Cochrane
ConceptLabs CA Co-Founder
Our progress to date!
We are such linear thinkers…
We don’t cope well with multiple dimensions
We confuse data and information
We store the useless and misplace the useful
We need knowledge but create a fog of confusion
Visualization & networking might just save us!
We seek clarity & truth...
…mostly they are orthogonal...
100%
Clarity
0
Truth
100%
Variables
If only it was all this simple...
Markets
Industry Dimensions
Political
Regulation
Globalisation
Competition
Organisation
Convergence
Segmentation
Strategy
Technology
Economic
Customers
Social
The power of the visual…& interactive
•
•
•
•
•
WORTH
in Words
A picture
1k
An animated picture
1M
An interactive multi-media session
1G
An immersive VR session
1T
Direct brain -machine connection Priceless!
Why doesn’t it sell???
No bandwidth
High level coding
No emotional connection
No added value
Display demands are beyond TV!
Human size
High resolution/definition
Daylight bright - low persistence
REALISTIC - not artificial
We ought not to neglect sound…
Axiom 1: Good sound invokes memories, visions and emotion
Axiom 2: Good sound (perceptibly) improves most displays
I am genuinely impressed by young people
…their spatial, strategic and tactical reasoning
seems far better than mine!
I do much better with the holodeck
approach….
I am far more at home the closer it all gets
to my real world experience!
Productivity
A human head full
Human head limit
Coping
Efficient
Exhaustion
Confusion
Errors
Breakdown
Information - sensory input
No one knows anything anymore...
The fount
of all
knowledge
Becoming
specialised
Highly
specialised
All knowledge
through
technology?
Increasingly myopic
1800
1900
TODAY
2000 +
A world of displays
- screens everywhere on everything
CRT, LCD, LED +++
Large, medium, small +++
Indoors, outdoors, fixed, portable, static,
carried, worn, integrated +++
Still the dominant mode…just!
And flat variants are coming fast…
Displays we carry & wear….
Wireless communication
Head mounted displays have
come a long way…
Where are they going…?
Cyborgs for real...
If I could....
...hear what you hear...
... see what you see...
... feel what you feel..
Exponentiation
x
e
= EXP(x)
…looks so innocent!
The ‘S’ Curve
Technology
Capability
time
The ‘S’ Curve Continuum
Technology
Capability
DVD
CD
Cassette
Tape
time
A future of man, woman & machine...
FLOPS
10
10 15
10 13
10 12
17
Teraflop
CM-5
CM-2
11
10
10 10
10 9
8
10
10 7
10 6
10 5
10 4
10 3
10 2
10
1
0.1
100,000
Teraflop
desktop
Cray Y-MP
Stretch
LARC
IBM 704
ENIAC
Relays
Vacuum tubes
1960
Cray C-90
Multiprocessors
Vector
Scalar
UNIVAC
1950
Cray -2
CDC
1604
1000x
1940
CDC 6600
ILLIAC IV
Delta
Massively
parallel
Cray X-MP
Cray-1
CDC 7600
Human Brain
Transistors
Micro-processors
Integrated circuits
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Moore’s Wall
Log Scale
3D ICs
Molecular
Quantum
Genetic
Biological
Optical
Computing
ICn
IC5
IC4
IC3
New
IC2
Sensors
Networks
Software
Lifeforms
Intelligences
IC1
Transistor
Thermionic
Tube
1915 46
59
2010
2025
Extrapolation from 1950s
Clock HD
1T
RAM
1G
Backbone
1M
Last/First Mile
1K
1
1947
1957
1967
1977
1987
1997
2007
350% pa
The key constraint?
Carrier’s
the
bottleneck
150% pa
35% pa
Wireless WWW
Content / Apps
Infrastructure
Devices
Unfortunately we do not adapt and
change as fast as our technology
and paper does not fit on a screen!
If we can imagine IT - we can do IT...
•More things on-line
than people
•AI & AL Logistics
•TeleCare
•TeleMedicine
•TeleEduction
•Video on Demand
•Music on Demand
•Undersea & Space Cams
•Remote Sensing
•+++++++
New Company Value
Faster & Faster Wealth Generation
US$Bn
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Internet
Mobile
1
2
3
4
5
6
Year
7
PC
8
9
10
Manufacture Distribution
R
E
T
A
I
L
Recycle
Raw
Materials
Ecosystem
Trash
Trash
Consumer
Consumer
Raw
Materials
Recycle
B-B Manufacture
B-BDistribution
B-B
Ecosystem
Trash
Trash
C-B
C-C B-C
obile
Consumer
Consumer
R
E
T
A
I
L
Business busting technology
QuickTime™ and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Two kids, a camcorder and a PC!
A world of opportunity & risk….
Thank you,
cochrane.org.uk
conceptlabs.net