Transcript 1BA6 Computers & Society - Selected History 16 BT

Selected History
1BA6 Computers & Society - Selected History
A VERY SELECTED HISTORY OF
COMPUTING
Manchester Mark I
www.man.ac.uk/Science_Engineering/CHSTM/nahc.htm
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BIBLIOGRAPHY
1BA6 Computers & Society - Selected History
BIBLIOGRAPHY
– The Social Impact Of Computers. R. Rosenberg. Academic Press. (S-LEN 500.4
N22)
– The Dream Machine - exploring the computer age.
J. Plafreman & D. Swade. BBC Books 1991. S-LEN 500.4 N11.
– Before the Altair: The History of Personal Computing.
L. Press. Communications of the ACM, Sept 1993, Vol 36, No. 9, pp27-33.
– Accidental Empires. R. Cringely. Penguin, London 1993. S-LEN 608 N21.
– The Emperor’s New Mind. R. Penrose. Oxford University Press, 1989. S-LEN
500.15 M997
– The History of Computing Web Site at Virginia Tech.
http://ei.cs.vt.edu/~history/
– In particular
– http://video.dlib.vt.edu/cgi-bin/Lobby?Method=Timeline
– The IEEE History of Computing Site
http://www.computer.org/history/
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Predictions
1BA6 Computers & Society - Selected History
Some Predictions
– “We have a computer here at Cambridge; there is one in
Manchester and there ought to be one in Scotland as well
but that is about all.”
» Douglas Hartree 1947 quoted in The Dream Machine p 8.
– "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."
» Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp.,
1977
– "640K ought to be enough for anybody."
» Bill Gates, 1981
– It was predicted in 1963 that within five years human language translators would
be redundant!
» c.f. The Dream Machine p 149.
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1BA6 Computers & Society - Selected History
Pre-computing
Pre-computing
– The Abacus - B.C.
1600– Schickard gave drawings for a calculating machine to
Keepler in 1623. (Nothing came of it.)
– Pascal. The Slide Rule - 1620. Patented a calculating
device in 1642.
– Leibniz. Invented a wheel used for efficient
multiplication and division (1694).
– Jacquard (1752-1834). Punched cards for controlling the
operation of looms.
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Attitudes
1BA6 Computers & Society - Selected History
ATTITUDES
– “..it is unworthy of excellent men to lose hours like slaves in the
labour or calculation which could safely be relegated to anyone else
if machines were used.”
» Leibniz c.f. Rosenberg p53.
– "I wish to God these calculations (for log tables) had been
executed by steam".
» Babbage. c.f. The Dream Machine page 16.
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Babbage
1BA6 Computers & Society - Selected History
Charles Babbage 1792-1871
– The Difference Engine 1823-1842
A design (and partial implementation) of a machine to
automatically calculate polynomials (i.e. a single task
machine).
– The Analytic Engine 1832-1871.
A design for a machines to solve ANY algebraic
equation.
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The Analytic Engine
1BA6 Computers & Society - Selected History
The Analytic Engine
– Its operation was variable and controlled by the
sequence or punched cards. Terminology for components
store (memory), mill (arithmetic unit (alu))
punched cards for input output, conditional branching.
– The Analytic Engine “....has no pretensions whatever to
originate anything. It can do what we know how to order
it to perform”. Ada Lovelace (1816-1852)
» Percy Ludgate an Irish Accountant tried to build his own analytic
engine at the start of the 20th century.
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Influence
1BA6 Computers & Society - Selected History
Influence
– NOTE : Babbage was not an influential figure in the
development of computers.
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Punched Card
1BA6 Computers & Society - Selected History
Punched Cards
– The 1890 US census published in the year it was taken.
– Used punched cards (56 million) to store the data and
tabulating machines to manipulate them.
– This technology was the main form of commercial
information processing for the 1st half of this century.
– Both IBM and ICL had their origins in punched card
companies.
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Turing
1BA6 Computers & Society - Selected History
Alan Turing (1912-1954)
– Turing's Machine: (1936) By way of a solution to a
mathematical problem on computability he designed a
hypothetical machine to carry out any algorithm.
– Modern computers are electronic implementations of
Universal Turing Machines.
» See chapter 2 of [Penrose 89] for a good description.
» See http://cogsci.ucsd.edu/~asaygin/tt/ttest.html
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ASIDE
1BA6 Computers & Society - Selected History
ASIDE
Turing's Test
A machine can be said to think if a human engaged in a
dialogue with it and a human cannot distinguish, based up
the answers alone, which is the human and which is the
machine!
See
http://cogsci.ucsd.edu/~asaygin/tt/ttest.html
http://www.20q.com/
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36-46
1BA6 Computers & Society - Selected History
1936-1946
(Some of)
The First Electronic Machines
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Not USA
1BA6 Computers & Society - Selected History
Germany:
– Zuse - Z1, Z2 and Z3 1936-44.
– Programmable calculators. Suggested using valves.
– Work not widely publicised outside of Germany at the
time.
UK:
– Colossus: 1943. A single task machine.
Code breaking. Used over 1000 valves.
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1BA6 Computers & Society - Selected History
USA
USA
– J V Atanasoff: 1939 prototype binary arithmetic electronic digital
computer.
– ENIAC: 1943-46 Mauchly and Eckert. Moore School of Electrical
Engineering University of Pennsylvania.
» Designed to calculate artillery firing tables.
5000 +, 350 *, 38 / operations per second. 20 hours continuous
operation.
18k valves, 70k resistors, 10k capacitors.
Re-program => re-wire!
– EDVAC (1945): John von Neumann (1903-1957)
Suggested that programs could also be stored and manipulated by
the machine.
– The von Neumann architecture. Memory, ALU, Control and I/O.
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1BA6 Computers & Society - Selected History
Wilkes
Maurice Wilkes:
Cambridge University
EDSAC 49-58
– The first (working) stored program machine.
Used mercury tubes for memory.
– Programmed using text mnemonics which another
EDSAC program converted into machine code.
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Commercialisation
1BA6 Computers & Society - Selected History
COMMERCIALISATION
1946– 1946 Eckert and Mauchly leave
academia to set up the
Electronic Control Company (ECC).
– US Census department sign up to buy an ECC machine
that has yet to be built.
– Lyons (the London tea house people) start to build their
own EDVAC type machine.
First model produced in ~1952.
Calculated tax, payrolls and tea mixes.
– Remington Rand: Buy out the almost bankrupt EcketMauchly in 1950.
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Awesome Machine
1BA6 Computers & Society - Selected History
The Awesome Thinking Machine
– In 1952 CBS use a UNIVAC to forecast the results of the
presidential election.
» Opinion polls rated the result as too close to call.
– With 8% of the votes counted the UNIVAC S/W correctly
predicted that Eisenhower would beat Stevenson with 43
states to 5.
» Walter Cronkite stated “It is awfully early but I will go out on a
limb….”
– Newspaper headlines the following day spoke of the
Awesome Thinking Machine.
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Semiconductors
1BA6 Computers & Society - Selected History
Semiconductor Technology
– TRANSISTORS. Invented by
Shockley, Bardeen and Brattain in 1948.
– First transistor based machine from
Bell Labs in 1954.
– Shockley goes to California to make transistors (1955).
– Noyce et al leave Shockley and set up Fairchild (1958)
– Moore's Law (1965) In integrated circuit technology the
number of components per unit surface area will double
each year.
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1BA6 Computers & Society - Selected History
Cost Curve
The Technology Cost Curve
Unit
Cost
Maturity/# units produced
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Politics
1BA6 Computers & Society - Selected History
POLITICS & THE COST CURVE
– Missiles being developed in the arms race needed light
computers for guidance.
– 1961 JFK starts the race to the moon.
Again generating a need for light computers.
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Applications
1BA6 Computers & Society - Selected History
Early Major Application Areas
– Banking: cheque processing.
– Airlines: ticket reservation.
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1BA6 Computers & Society - Selected History
IBM
IBM
– See their data processing machine business under threat
from UNIVAC.
– Produce a Defence Calculator (701) for the U.S. D.O.D.
in 1953 (Korean war) and a business version 650) in
1954.
– 650 used punch cards rather than magnetic tape as they
fit more comfortably into existing data processing set-ups.
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360
1BA6 Computers & Society - Selected History
The 360 Mainframe
– 1964 IBM spend $5 billion on developing the 360
hardware and software.
– Successfully marketed as THE single machine to meet all
needs.
– Sets the computing agenda until the microprocessor
revolution.
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1BA6 Computers & Society - Selected History
ASIDE
Locations
– California - sunshine, Stanford university and other
companies.
– The Boston ring road - MIT and DIGITAL.
– Cambridge (UK) - Maurice Wilkes et al in Cambridge
University.
» MicroSoft European Research Institute.
– Ireland (cheap), educated, English speaking labour,
access to the EU.
» Critical mass of expertise.
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