Transcript Week #8A INFO312x - UW Canvas

ENTERPRISE RISK MANAGEMENT
INFO 312
AUTUMN 2015
UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON INFORMATION SCHOOL
WEEK #8
NOVEMBER 16, 2015
2
BEIRUT AND PARIS ATTACKS
November 2015
3
Some context
• 2005 London Subway suicide bombings performed with credit
to al-Qaeda, the precursor Islamic fundamentalist terror group,
whose spokesperson on the video said:
• “Our religion is Islam, obedience to the one true god and following the
footsteps of the final prophet messenger. Your democratically-elected
governments continuously perpetuate atrocities against my people all
over the world. And your support of them makes you directly
responsible, just as I am directly responsible for protecting and avenging
my Muslim brothers and sisters. “
• The Islamic State (ISIS, Daesh) formed out of al-Qaeda in June
of 2014, declaring a Caliphate across areas it controlled in Syria
and Iraq while calling for global allegiance. Abu Bakr alBaghdadi declared himself the caliph of all 1.8B Muslims in the
world. He calls on Muslims to gather to his new land and unite
to “capture Rome” and own the world.
4
From The Management of Savagery/Chaos, a tract written more than a
decade ago under the name Abu Bakr Naji
Hit soft targets. “Diversify and widen the vexation strikes against
the crusader-Zionist enemy in every place in the Islamic world,
and even outside of it if possible, so as to disperse the efforts of
the alliance of the enemy and thus drain it to the greatest extent
possible.”
Strike when potential victims have their guard down. Sow fear in general
populations, damage economies. “If a tourist resort that the crusaders patronise …
is hit, all of the tourist resorts in all of the states of the world will have to be
secured by the work of additional forces, which are double the ordinary amount,
and a huge increase in spending.”
“As I testified to the US Senate armed service committee and before the United Nations
security council: what inspires the most uncompromisingly lethal actors in the world
today is not so much the Qur’an or religious teachings. It’s a thrilling cause that promises
glory and esteem. Jihad is an egalitarian, equal-opportunity employer: fraternal, fastbreaking, glorious, cool – and persuasive.” -- Scott Atran, a Guardian article on ISIS
5
Daesh Highlights of 2014 – Just a Sample
• July 2014:
• Took control of al-0mar Syria’s largest oil field
• Took Shaer gas field in Syria, warning Christians to convert or leave or be killed
• Blowing up Jonah’s Tomb, a Jewish holy site
• August 2014:
• Sinjar Mountains massacre of over 5,000 men
• Massacres a Yazidi village in northern Iraq
• Video of beheading of American journalist James Foley, with demand that American air strikes cease.
• September 2014
• Jihadi John beheads on video another US journalist, Steven Sotloff.
• CIA announces that Daesh now has between 20,000-31,500 fighters
• Execution again on video of British aid worker David Haines
• Executes Iraqi human rights activist Samira Salih al-Nuaimi
• Affiliated Algerian group kidnap and behead a French tourist
• October 2014
• More video beheadings: Alan Henning and Peter Kassig
• November 2014
• Killed 322 members of the Albu Minr tribe during a series of executions
• December 2014
• Shoot down and then capture Jordanian pilot in northern Syria, burning him alive in a cage in February.
6
Who lives where in the Middle East,
from vox.com
7
5 year plan for Daesh
Islamic caliphate created in 2014 with goal to re-establish Middle East region
before it was carved up after WW1 in a 1916 treaty. Map from Daily Mail 30
June 2014.
8
Daesch as “Medina Muslims” – literalist,
bigoted and violent
• In her book, Heretic, Ayan Hirsi Ali names and defines this group as
ignoring the larger and inclusive message of the Koran, picking out its
“fighting words,” and selectively pick from later Islamic tradition the
parts calling for harsh punishments and unending jihad. (Estimates 3%
of Muslims = 48M)
• Includes not only hyper-violent members of ISIS, al-Qaeda, the Taliban and sister
gangs as well as others with similarly blinkered views, some of who make examples
•
•
•
•
•
Rape
Bloodletting through high quality videos including slow motion
Idol-smashing
Mass beheading
Carting off of virgin sex slaves
• Ali suggests five tenants of Islam must be reformed or discarded
• Infallible status of Muhammed and literal understanding of the Koran (In Islam, there is no “church” to
explain and enforce religious changes)
• Giving priority to the afterlife over the present day (why suicide is such an attractive option)
• Sharia law over State law–codifying the organization of daily life, economics, governance
• Empowering individuals to enforce such Islamic jurisprudence in its laws and customs
• Jihad – the product of a deeply felt need among Muslims for reform, for improving oneself (“exerted
effort”)
• “….It is only the Medina Muslims who can represent themselves as the agents of a Muslim Reformation
9
Daesh Organization Chart
10
Beirut Attack on Thursday
• Double suicide attack on November 12th
• 43 dead, others injured
• Deadliest bombing to hit the city since civil war ended in 1990
• “Highlighted a sense in the region of being left alone to bear
the brunt of Syria’s deadly four year war that has sent 4 million
refugees fleeing, mostly to neighboring countries like
Lebanon.” (NY Times, “Memo from Lebanon,” 15 Nov. 2015)
• Of a population of 4 million, one million are Syrians.
• Government has announced arrest of seven Syrians and two
Lebanese in conjunction with the attack.
• It very well could be part of what will be a synchronized set of
attacks on those countries around the world that are bombing
ISIS. The next attack took place on Friday, November 13th.
11
Paris Attack 13 November 2015
• From a statement from the Islamic State: “Soldiers of Caliphate targeted the
•
•
•
•
•
capital of abomination and perversion.” The statement said: "Eight brothers
carrying explosive belts and guns targeted areas in the heart of the French
capital that were specifically chosen in advance: the Stade de France during a
match against Germany, which that imbecile Francois Hollande was attending;
the Bataclan where hundreds of idolaters were together in a party of perversity
as well as other targets in the 10th, 11th and 18th arrondissement.”
Over 130 killed and over 350 wounded across six different locations
Locations included restaurants, bars, nightclubs and a large stadium
Tactics included use of suicide vests, grenades, automatic weapons and hand
guns
Appears that there may have been a massive cyber attack on French systems 48
hours prior to and during the Paris attacks. Amongst other things, the attack
took down the French mobile data network and blinded police surveillance.
New Daesh video warns more attacks are coming to those who bomb Syria, in
particular in the United States to Washington D.C.
12
Terrorism
• Except with data and information security, we have not done a good
•
•
•
•
job of streamlining our technology to deal with real time events.
Terrorism usually falls somewhere between corporate security,
business continuity and information security in most companies – or
not anywhere except at the “crisis management” level when
something happens.
Companies like Microsoft with global reach manage terrorism out of
their Global Security Operations Center (GSOC), where all their
business continuity data is also house.
Need to manage relations with different governments.
Questions to ask:
• Have we defined our most critical business processes and can we maintain
them or bring them back quickly?
• Will we run scenario tests against emerging threats in order to refine items
like evacuation routes and employee check-in, etc?
13
President Obama this morning
• "A strategy has to be one that can be sustained."
"What I do not do is to take actions, either because it is going
to work politically or it is going to somehow, in the abstract,
make America look tough, or make me look tough.”
• that rushing in ground troops is not the immediate answer
• that any response must come from a coalition of partners
• that any response must come from a coalition of partners
• that the strategy is more than arms
• that there is no religious test for compassion (re refugees....)
• that our enemy is not the religion of Islam, but violent extremism
14
Anonymous and ISIS: Virtual takedowns
15
QUESTIONS?