Transcript MKingClimate Change, Water Scarcity and

Climate Change, Water Scarcity and Violent extremism in
Iraq and Syria
Marcus DuBois King, Ph.D.
John O. Rankin Associate Professor
August 24, 2015
Water Scarcity and Extremism Project:
Key Hypotheses
(H1) Water scarcity is one causal
factor in the Syria and Iraq conflict
(H2) Water “weaponzation” is
accelerating and perpetuating the
conflict
A satellite view (2014) showing the two main rivers running from
Turkey through Syria and Iraq. Credits: MODIS/NASA
Map of Drought Vulnerability & ISIS Territory
Maps of Drought Vulnerability & ISIS Territory
Maps of Drought Vulnerability & ISIS Territory
Maps of Drought Vulnerability & ISIS Territory
Levels of Climate Change Effects in Syria
First
Level:
 Changes in

physical
environment

 Example: higher
temperatures
Second
Level:
Effect on ecological
systems
Example: droughts,
desertification
Third
Level:
 Effect on human
systems
 Example: severe
stress on agriculture,
food security
Fourth
Level
 Effects from human
responses
 Examples:
Inadequate policy
responses, mass
migrations, conflict
Hypothesis 1: Conclusions
 Climate change induced water scarcity played a
meaningful but complicated role in creating desperate
conditions that led to political unrest and ultimately
violent insurrection.
 Violence was perpetrated by IS and others.
 Drought, food insecurity, poverty and migration were
progressive effects that led to desperation.
 More study needed to assign relative weight to
effects.
 Projected climate change will worsen in next 10-20
years
NEXT SECTION: water “weaponzation” is also causing lasting
damage to the vulnerable populations
Categories of Water Weaponization
(based on perpetrators intent)
Strategic Weaponization
Tactical Weaponization
Instrument of Psychological Terrorism
Instrument of Extortion and
Incentivization
Unintentional Weaponization
Water as a Weapon in Syria and Iraq:
Incidents Workbook
Category
Totals
Strategic
Weaponization
Syria
Iraq
23
9
13
Tactical
Weaponization
11
6
6
Psychological Terrorism
4
4
0
Unintentional
Weaponization
7
6
1
Incentivization
2
0
2
N/A
2
0
2
Combatants’ Use of Water as a Weapon
Combatants
No. of Attributed Incidents
ISIS
21
Free Syrian Army
Syrian regime
Iraqi Kurds
2
3
1
Jabhat Al Nusra
3
Islamist Sharia
Council
ISF
Other
NA
2
4
4
6
Water Weaponization by Cluster and Combatants
Source: King and Allers 2015
H2: Islamic State: Use of the Water
Weapon
 IS threat to use the water weapon was the key
accelerant that precipitated U.S. direct
involvement
 Use of the water weapon has been a critical
enabler and perpetuator of the IS war campaign
 Use of the water weapon is problematic from a
legal and theological standpoint.
 Successful denial of IS’s ability to use the water
weapon may be the decisive element in
determining whether they can be defeated.
Recommendations for U.S. Engagement
 Defense: First, do no harm. Prevent military
ecological damage to water bodies and installations.
Apply understanding of IS’s use of the water weapon
to Counterinsurgency (COIN) strategies.
 Development: Incorporate restoration of water
infrastructure as high priority in post-conflict
stabilization programs
 Diplomacy: Support creation of a river commission
and application and enforcement of international laws
ENMOD and the Geneva Convention Additional
Protocol II.
QUESTIONS?
mdking@gwu
 Drought map:
 Erian, W., Katlan, B. & Babah, O. Drought vulnerability in the Arab region:
Special case study: Syria, The United Nations Office for Disaster and
Risk Reduction
 ISIS map:
 'Syria: Mapping the conflict - BBC News ', BBC News, 10 July 2015.
<http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-22798391>, (accessed on
05 August 2015).