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SEADMC 2009
Scenario Brief
02-0010 /
07-0008
As of 29 Nov 09
02 & 07 December 2009
UNCLASSIFIED
1
Seismic Activities in Sunda Strait
• October 15, 2009: Seismic
tremors centered in Sunda
Strait increased in intensity
and frequency
Anak Krakatau
• October 23-November 12,
2009: Eruptive activity on
Anak Krakatau resumes.
– Most are minor
– Some large enough to
cause CVGHM* to raise
Alert Level to Alert Level 3
– Alert Level lowered back to
Alert Level 2 on 12
November
* Center of Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation
Serang
Jakarta
UNCLASSIFIED
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Indonesia Alert System
• Alert Level 1 Aktif Normal
– Monitoring does not indicate changes
– No eruption in foreseeable future
• Alert Level 2 Waspada
– Increasing activity, visual changes around crater
– Magmatic, tectonic disturbance, no eruption imminent
• Alert Level 3 Siaga
– Intensively increasing activity
– If trend of unrest continues, eruption possible in two weeks
• Alert Level 4 Awas
– Initial eruption of ash and vapor
– Main eruption possible within 24 hours
UNCLASSIFIED
3
Increased Intensity
• November 15, 2009:
Activity increases
rapidly
–Alert Level raised
to Alert Level 3
• November 17, 2009:
–Alert Level raised
to Alert Level 4
UNCLASSIFIED
4
7.9 Earthquake and Eruption
• November 19, 2009:
– 7.9 earthquake strikes 13
km below surface just
northeast of Anak
Krakatau
–Anak Krakatau explodes,
northern caldera
disappears
–Ash plumes rise 10 km
–Pyroclastic flows speed
outward to western JavaBanten Province
Map / Graphic
UNCLASSIFIED
5
Earthquake-generated Tsunami
• November 19, 2009:
Earthquake-generated
tsunami sweeps western
Java and eastern Sumatra
–Waves up to 15 meters
high strike west coast of
Java from Merak to
Tamanjaya.
–Northern coast of
Banten Province hit by
waves up to 10 meters
high
–Banten town is
destroyed
UNCLASSIFIED
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Death and Destruction
• Volcanic ash covers much of Banten Province,
including Serang
• “Tens of thousands” are feared dead or missing
• Homes, business, resorts, farms, fish pens, roads
are destroyed or damaged
UNCLASSIFIED
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Chemical Plants Damaged / Destroyed
• Earthquake and
tsunami cause
massive damage to
chemical plants and
port facilities in Anyer.
• Hazardous materials
threaten life and
property in coastal
and industrial areas
UNCLASSIFIED
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Day 2: November 20, 2009
• Ash continues to fall, moving east towards
Jakarta
• Foreign governments press GOI for information
on their nationals vacationing in resorts on west
coast of Java
• International community offers relief aid, funds,
personnel, equipment, and military support
UNCLASSIFIED
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Day 3: November 21, 2009
• GOI responds to the disasters
–TNI supports BNPB, SATKORLAK
–Indonesia NGOs, in-country representatives of
international NGOs, UN agencies ( in country) support
GOI
–GOI resources are stretched to capacity
• GOI, UNDAC assessment teams deploy
• GOI welcomes international support and aid;
starts prioritizing needs
UNCLASSIFIED
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Day 5: November 23, 2009
• 115,000 estimated population displaced
• Looming health emergency for survivors
–Food and potable water shortages creating
–Insufficient medical resources
• Significant international assistance begins to
arrive in Jakarta and Serang.
–Some Anyer port facilities are able to receive supplies
UNCLASSIFIED
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Day 7: November 25, 2009
• Foreign military commences major support to
Banten Province relief efforts
• Thousands remain homeless
–Shelters overcrowded
–Medical resources inadequate
• Recovery of dead bodies and treatment of human
remains becoming a major problem
UNCLASSIFIED
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Infrastructure Damage
• Deaths:
–Estimated 25,000 dead in Banten Province
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15,000 in coastal areas: Merak to Tamanjaya
5,000 between coast and Serang
2,500 in Banten town and south towards Serang
2,000 in Serang
• Injuries:
–Approximately 18,000 (10,000 included in internally
displaced)


Trauma, fire
Toxic poisoning
• Internally Displaced:
–Over 115,000

Mostly inland between Anyer and Merak and vicinity of Serang
UNCLASSIFIED
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Infrastructure
• Port Facilities:
–Wharves and warehouses between Merak and Anyer
damaged / destroyed
–Chemical storage tanks in Merak port damaged;
chemical spills cover coastal waters
• Roads:
– Roads between Merak and Tamanjaya damaged; many
parts are impassible
–Expressway linking Jakarta and Merak damaged; all
overpasses between Merak and Serang damaged
• Structures:
–Virtually all buildings and residences in tsunami zone
damaged or destroyed
–Multi-story buildings in Serang damaged
UNCLASSIFIED
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