Transcript Manion Lecture 2011: Slides in Powerpoint Format

Manion Lecture 2011
Supporting Slides
UNCLASSIFIED
1. Export market growth
GDP growth in key export markets
120
US (1992-97)
1992/2010=100
115
Euro-area (2010-15)*
110
105
100
95
90
0
1
* IMF forecast for euro-area
2
Year
Source: IMF April 2011 World Economic Outlook
UNCLASSIFIED
3
4
5
2. Fiscal and Financial Sector Vulnerabilities
500
UK
Netherlands
Domestic banking assets (% GDP)
450
Sweden
400
350
Denmark
Germany
Spain
France
Ireland
Austria
300
250
Portugal
200
Greece
Italy
150
Slovenia
100
Finland
U.S
50
Bulgaria
Czech Rep
Slovakia
0
-2
0
2
4
Structural deficit in 2010 (% GDP)
Source: ECB, Eurostat, US Fed and HMT calculations
UNCLASSIFIED
6
8
10
3. Borrowing and debt
Net debt
Net borrowing
12
75
Canada 1989 onwards
10
Canada 1989 onwards
70
UK 2007/8 onwards
UK 2007/08 onwards
65
60
% of GDP
% o GDP
8
6
4
55
50
45
40
2
35
0
30
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1
-2
2
3
4
5
Year
Year
Source: OBR March 2011 Economic and Fiscal Outlook (for the UK), IMF April 2011 World Economic Outlook (for Canada)
UNCLASSIFIED
6
7
8
9
4. Structural borrowing
Structural net borrowing
10
Canada 1989 onwards
UK 2007/08 onwards
8
% o GDP
6
4
2
0
Year
-2
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Source: OBR March 2011 Economic and Fiscal Outlook (for the UK), IMF April 2011 World
Economic Outlook (for Canada)
UNCLASSIFIED
5. Bond yield spreads
10-year yield spread to Bunds
1600
1400
1200
Basis points
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Jan-09
-200
May-09
Spain
Sep-09
Portugal
Jan-10
Italy
May-10
UK
UNCLASSIFIED
France
Sep-10
Ireland
Jan-11
Greece
May-11
6. Comparison of consolidations
UK public spending and receipts
Canadian public spending and receipts
55
55
50
% of GDP
% of GDP
50
45
Public spending
45
40
40
35
35
Public spending
Receipts
30
30
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
Source: OBR March 2011 Economic and Fiscal Outlook (for the UK), IMF April 2011 World Economic Outlook (for Canada)
UNCLASSIFIED
Receipts
7. Changes to Public Sector Employment*
100
1994/2010 = 100
95
Canadian Public Sector (1994 to 1999)
UK Public Sector* (2010 to 2015)
90
85
0
1
* UK Public sector excluding Public corporations (General Government).
2
3
4
5
Year
UNCLASSIFIED
Sources: OBR Economic & Fiscal Outlook March 2011. ONS Public Sector Employment Statistics Q4 2010. Employment Statistics for the Federal Public Service 1996 to 1997, TBCS.
Statistics Canada (www.statcan.gc.uk)
8. Civil Service Engagement: 2010 Civil Service People Survey
The Civil Service’s employee
engagement framework views
engagement as the emotional
contribution staff provide to their
organisation. We measure
engagement using five questions:
80%
75%
2010 Employee Engagment Index
70%
65%
I am proud when I tell others
I work for [my organisation]
60%
Civil Service benchmark 2009: 58%
55%
I would recommend [my
organisation] as a great
place to work
Civil Service benchmark 2010: 56%
50%
I feel a strong personal
attachment to [my
organisation]
45%
40%
[My organisation] inspires
me to do the best in my job
35%
30%
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
Percentage point change in EEI since 2009
Source: Civil Service People Survey 2010
UNCLASSIFIED
+2
+4
+6
[My organisation] motivates
me to help it achieve its
objectives
9. Drivers of Engagement