Transcript from natural hazards to disasters and disaster resilience

FROM NATURAL HAZARDS TO
DISASTERS AND DISASTER
RESILIENCE
A 3-Part Story That Can Take 40
Years or More
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for
Disaster Reduction, University of
North Carolina, USA
BASIC PHYSICS and EARTH
SCIENCE of NATURAL HAZARDS
TOWARDS A DEEPER UNDERSTANDING OF THE
PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS THAT CAUSE NATURAL
HAZARDS AROUND THE GLOBE
PART I
HAZARDS: NOT AN OPTION FOR CITIES
EXPOSURE AND
VULNERABILITY
HAZARDS
CITY
DISASTER
DISASTER
RESILIENCE
NATURAL HAZARDS ARE
NOT AN OPTION FOR CITIES
(PART I)
DISASTERS, THE “DEFAULT OPTION”
(PART II)
AND
TO BECOME DISASTER RESILIENT, OR
NOT; THAT IS THE QUESTION: (PART III)
PLANET EARTH IS
AFFECTED BY A CONTINUUM
OF NATURAL HAZARDS
EARTHQUAKES
TSUNAMIS
SEVERE WINDSTORMS
VOLCANOES
FLOODS
WILDFIRES
A DISASTER OCCURS
WHEN THE CITY IS …
UN—PREPARED
UN—PROTECTED
UN—ABLE TO RESPOND EFFECTIVELY
UN (NON)--RESILIENT
BASIC EARTH SCIENCE
• PLATE
TECTONICS
• FAULTS
• WATER CYCLE
• SOLAR HEAT
•
•
•
•
•
EARTHQUAKES
TSUNAMIS
VOLCANOES
FLOODS
SEVERE
WINDSTORMS
• WILDFIRES
BASIC PHYSICS
• STRESS
• WAVES (P-, S-,
(Compression,
Love-, Rayleigh
Tension, Shear) Waves;
• DEFORMATION Tsunamis)
(Faults, Folds) • FLOWS,
BLASTS, AND
• HEAT AND
PRESSURE
PLUMES
FLOW
PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS OCCUR
ON MANY SCALES
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Microscopic
Site-specific to local
Subsurface to atmospheric
Regional
Continental
OCEANIC
Global
EARTHQUAKES:
PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS
ENCOMPASS THE
LITHOSPHERE, CORE,
MANTLE, ASTHENOSPHERE,
(HYDROSPHERE) AND
BIOSPHERE
HEAT FLOWS FROM THE
OUTER CORE
TECTONIC PLATES 200 MILLION
YEARS AFTER PANGEA
NORTH AMERICA AND PACIFIC (JUAN
DE FUCA) PLATES CONVERGING
NORTH AMERICA AND PACIFIC
PLATES SLIDING BY EACH OTHER
San Andreas: A Plate Boundary
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA’S
NATURAL HAZARDS
•
•
•
•
FLOODS
EARTHQUAKES
TSUNAMIS
VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
• WILDFIRES
• LANDSLIDES
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA’S
NATURAL HAZARDS
•
•
•
•
•
•
FLOODS
HURRICANES
EARTHQUAKES
TORNADOES
ICE STORMS
LANDSLIDES
THE CARIBBEAN PLATE AND
HAITI EARTHQUAKE
PACIFIC RIM: SUBDUCTION OF
CONVERGING PLATES
MOST EARTHQUAKES OCCUR IN
PACIFIC RIM CONVERGENCE ZONE
INDIA-EURASIA: COLLISION OF
CONVERGING PLATES
PLATE CONVERGENCE: BANDA
ACHE, INDONESIA AREA
THE POTENTIAL DISASTER
AGENTS OF AN
EARTHQUAKE
FAULT
RUPTURE
DAMAGE/LOSS
EARTHQUAKE
GROUND
SHAKING
DAMAGE/LOSS
TSUNAMI
DAMAGE/ LOSS
SUBSIDENCE
DAMAGE/ LOSS
FOUNDATION
FAILURE
DAMAGE/ LOSS
SOIL
AMPLIFICATION
DAMAGE/ LOSS
LIQUEFACTION
DAMAGE/ LOSS
LANDSLIDES
DAMAGE/ LOSS
AFTERSHOCKS
DAMAGE/ LOSS
SEICHE
DAMAGE/ LOSS
CAUSES OF
DAMAGE/DISASTER
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO
HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING
SOIL AMPLIFICATION
PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT
(SOIL FAILURE AND SURFACE
FAULTING )
EARTHQUAKES
IRREGULARITIES IN MASS,
STRENGTH, AND STIFFNESS
CASE HISTORIES
FLOODING FROM TSUNAMI WAVE
RUNUP AND SEICHE
POOR DETAILING OF
STRUCTURALSYSTEM
FAILURE OF NON-STRUCTURAL
ELEMENTS
TSUNAMIS:
PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS
ENCOMPASS THE
LITHOSPHERE, CORE,
MANTLE, ASTHENOSPHERE,
HYDROSPHERE, AND
BIOSPHERE
PHYSICS OF A TSUNAMI
THE POTENTIAL DISASTER
AGENTS OF AN TSUNAMI
TSUNAMI HAZARDS
(AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
• HIGH-VELOCITY, LONG-PERIOD
WATER WAVES
• WAVE RUNUP
• FLOODING
• WAVE RETREAT
• SHORELINE EROSION
TSUNAMI WAVE RUN UP
CAUSES OF
DAMAGE/DISASTER
HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF
INCOMING WAVES
INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE
RUNUP
VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE
RUNUP
TSUNAMIS
CASE HISTORIES
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF
BUILDINGS
FLOODING
NO WARNING, OR
INADEQUATE WARNING
PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF
TSUNAMI
SEVERE WINDSTORMS
HURRICANES/TYPHOONS:
PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS OF
THE SUN, HYDROSPHERE,
ATMOSPHERE, LITHOSPHERE,
AND BIOSPHERE
HURRICANE PHYSICS
PHYSICS OF A TYPHOON
HAZARDS OF A SEVERE WINDSTORM
(AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
• WIND FIELD (COUNTER CLOCKWISE
OR CLOCKWISE DIRECTION; CAT 1 (55
mph) TO CAT 5 (155 mph or greater)
• STORM SURGE
• HEAVY PRECIPITATION
• LANDSLIDES (MUDFLOWS)
• COSTAL EROSION
• TORNADOES (SOMETIMES)
CAUSES OF
DAMAGE/DISASTER
WIND AND WATER
PENETRATE BUILDING
ENVELOPE
UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM
FLYING DEBRIS PENETRATES
WINDOWS
SEVERE
WINDSTORMS
CASE HISTORIES
STORM SURGE AND HEAVY
PRECIPITATION
IRREGULARITIES IN
ELEVATION AND PLAN
POOR WORKMANSHIP
FAILURE OF NONSTRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
RISK ASSESSMENT
•SEVERE
WINDSTORMS
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION
ACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
SEVERE WINDSTORM
RISK REDUCTION
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
Storm Hazards:
Gradient Wind
Wind profile
Ocean
COMMUNITY
-Wind pressure
-Surge
-Rain
-Flood
-Waves
-Salt water
-Missiles
-Tornadoes
POLICY OPTIONS
•PREPAREDNESS
•PROTECTION
•EMERGENCY RESPONSE
•RECOVERY
• EDUCATIONAL SURGES
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS:
PHYSICAL
INTERACTIONS
ENCOMPASS THE
LITHOSPHERE, CORE,
MANTLE, ATMOSPHERE,
AND BIOSPHERE
PHYSICS OF AN EXPLOSIVE
VOLCANO
ACTIVE VOLCANOES
HAZARDS OF A VOLCANIC
ERUPTION
VOLCANO HAZARDS
(AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
•
•
•
•
•
VERTICAL PLUME
ASH AND TEPHRA
LATERAL BLAST
PYROCLASTIC FLOWS
LAhARS
CAUSES OF
DAMAGE/DISASTER
PROXIMITY TO LATERAL
BLAST
IN PATH OF PYROCLASTIC
FLOWS
IN PATH OF FLYING DEBRIS
(TEPHRA)
VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
CASE HISTORIES
IN PATH OF VOLCANIC ASH
(AVIATION)
IN PATH OF LAVA AND
PYROCLASTIC FLOWS
IN PATH OF LAHARS
IGNORING WARNING TO
EVACUATE
RISK ASSESSMENT
•HAZARD MAPS
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION
ACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
DISASTER RISK
REDUCTION
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
COMMUNITY
POLICY OPTIONS
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
•PREVENTION-MITIGATION
•PREPAREDNESS
•EMERGENCY RESPONSE
•RECOVERY
•ADAPTATION
FLOODS:
PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS
ENCOMPASS THE ATMOSPHERE,
LITHOSPHERE, HYDROSPHERE,
AND BIOSPHERE
FLOOD HAZARDS (AKA
POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
• TOO MUCH WATER DISCHARGED
WITHIN THE DRAINAGE SYSTEM TO
BE ACCOMMODATED NORMALLY IN
THE REGIONAL WATER CYCLE
• EROSION
• SCOUR
• MUDFLOWS
CAUSES OF
DAMAGE AND
DISASTER
LOSS OF FUNCTION OF
STRUCTURES IN FLOODPLAIN
INUNDATION
INTERACTION WITH
HAZARDOUS MATERIALS
FLOODS
CASE HISTORIES
STRUCTURAL/CONTENTS
DAMAGE FROM WATER
WATER BORNE DISEASES
(HEALTH PROBLEMS)
EROSION AND MUDFLOWS
CONTAMINATION OF GROUND
WATER
WILDFIRES:
PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS
ENCOMPASS THE ATMOSPHERE,
LITHOSPHERE, AND BIOSPHERE
SCIENCE OF WILDFIRES
WILDFIRES
are conflagrations caused by
lightning discharges (or acts of
man) in wilderness areas close
enough to an urban interface
that they threaten people,
property, infrastructure, and
business enterprise.
WILDFIRE HAZARDS
(AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
•
•
•
•
FIRE
HOT GASES AND SMOKE
HOT SPOTS
BURNED OUT SLOPES (with
increased susceptibility to insect
infestation, erosion, and
landslides)
WILDFIRE HAZARDS
(AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
• SUNDOWNER WINDS
• SANTA ANNA WINDS
• LOCAL CHANGES IN AIR
QUALITY
• LOCAL CHANGES IN WEATHER
CAUSES OF
DAMAGE AND
DISASTER
LIGHTNING STRIKES
MANMADE FIRES
PROXIMITY OF URBAN AREA
TO THE WILDLAND FIRE
WILDFIRES
DISASTER
LABORATORIES
WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION
(DAY/NIGHT)
DRYNESS
HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOCAL FUEL SUPPLY
DISASTERS ARE THE CITY’S
“DEFAULT OPTION”
(SEE PART II)
TO BECOME DISASTER RESILIENT, OR
NOT; THAT IS STILL THE QUESTION:
(PART III)