Transcript volcanoes

LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST
NOTABLE DISASTERS
RUSSIA
PART 4: VOLCANOES
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for
Disaster Reduction, Vienna,
Virginia, USA
NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED
DISASTERS IN RUSSIA
FLOODS
GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE
AND COMMUNITIES
HIGH BENEFIT/COST
PROGRAMS FOR
BECOMING DISASTER
RESILIENT
WINDSTORMS
EARTHQUAKES
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
WILDFIRES
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
Natural Phenomena that Cause
Disasters
Planet Earth’s
Heat Flow
Causes
Movement of
Tectonic Plates,
which leads to:
Volcanoes
VOLCANOE ERUPIONS
are awesome manifestations of
heat flowing as a result of hot
spots (e.g., Hawaii and Iceland)
and movement of tectonic
plates undergoing subduction
(e.g., the Kamchatka Peninsula).
TECTONIC PLATES
KURIL-KAMCHATKA TRENCH
• Many earthquakes, tsunamis,
and volcanic eruptions
originate from Kamchatka as a
result of subduction of the
Pacific Plate beneath the
Okhotsk Plate at the KurilKamchatka Trench
SEISMICITY MAP SINCE 1900:
KAMCHATKA HAS THE MOST SEISMIC ACTIVITY
100 VOLCANOES ON THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
VOLCANOES ON THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
KLUCHEVSKYA SOPKA
Europe’s highest and most
active volcano
VOLCANO KLUCHEVSKYA
SOPKA
VOLCANO SHIVELUCH
VOLCANO KARYMSKY
VOLCANO SHIVELUCH
VOLCANO KIKHPINYCH
VOLCANO PLOSKY TOLBACHIK:
(Erupted recently in 2012-13)
VOLCANO KLIUCHEVSKOI
VOLCANO AVANCHISKY
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
FORTUNATELY,
THE REGION IS
SPARSELY
POPULATED
ELEMENTS OF RISK AND
DISASTER
ELEMENTS OF VOLCANO
RISK
HAZARDS
EXPOSURE
RISK
VULNERABILITY
LOCATION
VOLCANO HAZARDS
ARE POTENTIAL DISASTER
AGENTS
VOLCANO HAZARDS
(AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
•
•
•
•
VERTICAL PLUME
ASH AND TEPHRA
LATERAL BLAST
PYROCLASTIC FLOWS
VOLCANO HAZARDS
(AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
• LAVA FLOWS
• LAHARS
• EARTHQUAKES (related to
movement of lava)
• “VOLCANIC WINTER”
A DISASTER CAN HAPPEN
WHEN THE
POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF A
VOLCANIC ERUPTION INTERACT
WITH THE BUILT ENVIRONMENTS
AND TROPOSPHERES OF RUSSIA’S
COMMUNITIES
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
FORTUNATELY,
THE
KAMCHATKA
PENIUNSULA
IS SPARSELY
POPULATED.
CAUSES
OF RISK
LATERAL BLAST
PYROCLASTIC FLOWS
FLYING DEBRIS
VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
CASE HISTORIES
VOLCANIC ASH
LAVA FLOWS
LAHARS
TOXIC GASES
A DISASTER is ----- the set of failures that overwhelm the
capability of a community to respond
without external help when three
continuums: 1) people, 2) community
(i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and
social constructs), and 3) complex
events (e.g., a volcanic eruption,...)
intersect at a point in space and time.
Disasters are caused by
single- or multiple-event
natural hazards that, (for
various reasons), cause
extreme levels of mortality,
morbidity, homelessness,
joblessness, economic losses,
or environmental impacts.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• When it does happen, the
functions of the community’s
buildings and infrastructure will be
LOST because they are
UNPROTECTED with the
appropriate codes and standards.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community is UNPREPARED for what will likely
happen, not to mention the
low-probability of occurrence—
high-probability of adverse
consequences event.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community has NO DISASTER
PLANNING SCENARIO or
WARNING SYSTEM in place as a
strategic framework for concerted
local, national, regional, and
international countermeasures.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community LACKS THE
CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a
timely manner to the full
spectrum of expected and
unexpected emergency
situations.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community is INEFFICIENT
during recovery and
reconstruction because it HAS
NOT LEARNED from either the
current experience or the
cumulative prior experiences.
THE ALTERNATIVE TO A
VOLCANO DISASTER IS
VOLCANO DISASTER
RESILIENCE
VOLCANO RISK
• VOLCANO HAZARDS
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
ACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
RUSSIA’S
COMMUNITIES
VOLCANO DISASTER
RESILIENCE
POLICY OPTIONS
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
•PREPAREDNESS
•PROTECTION
•FORECASTS/SCENARIOS
•EMERGENCY RESPONSE
•RECOVERY and
RECONSTRUCTION
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT
DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL VOLCANOES
PREPAREDNESS
FOR ALL THE LIKELY
HAZARDS IS
ESSENTIAL FOR
DISASTER
RESILIENCE
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT
DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL VOLCANOES
AVOIDANCE OF
HAZARDOUS ASH
PLUMES BY
AIRLINES IS
ESSENTIAL FOR
DISASTER
RESILIENCE
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT
DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL VOLCANOES
TIMELY WARNING
AND EVACUATION
IS ESSENTIAL FOR
DISASTER
RESILIENCE
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT
DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL VOLCANOES
TIMELY
EMERGENCY
RESPONSE IS
ESSENTIAL FOR
DISASTER
RESILIENCE
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT
VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE
KLUCHEVSKYA
SOPKA
STRATEGIC COLLABORATION IS THE KEY
TO BECOMING
DISASTER
RESILIENT FOR
EUROPE’S MOST
ACTIVE VOLCANO
(AND THE OTHERS)
DISASTER RESILIENCE
STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
• PURPOSE
• COMPUTER
MODELS OF A
SPECIFIC VOLCANO AND ITS
HAZARDS PROFILE
• TECHNIQUE
• INSITU AND
SATELLITE
MONITORING OF
SPECIFIC
VOLCANOES
MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES
.
GEOEYE PHOTOGRAPHS
ERUPTION IN PROGRESS
DISASTER RESILIENCE
STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
• PURPOSE
• PROTECTION
• CONTROL
• AVIATION SAFETY
• TECHNIQUE
• DESIGN ROOFS
FOR WET ASH
• LAVA AND/OR
LAHAR DIVERSION
CHANNELS
• MODELS OF ASH
DISTRIBUTION
AVIATION SAFETY:MODELS
TO AVOID VOLCANIC ASH
• JET AIRCRAFT
ARE SUSCEPTIBLE
TO ENGINE
FAILURE AND FREE
FALL WHEN
FLYING THROUGH
AN ASH CLOUD.
LAVA DIVERSION
CHANNELS: CONTROL
• LAVA FLOWS CAN
NOT BE PREVENTED FROM
OCCURRING, BUT
THEY CAN BE
DIVERTED AWAY
FROM URBAN
CENTERS INTO THE
OCEAN
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES
FOR VOLCANO DISASTER
RESILIENCE
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR
VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE
• FORECASTS OF
ERUPTIONS
• MONITORING
TECHNOLOGIES (E.G.,
DEFORMATION,
SEISMICITY, GAS
EMISSIONS, REMOTE
SENSING, WINDS)
• WARNING SYSTEMS
• DATABASES FOR
EACH VOLCANO
• COMPUTER MODELS
OF VOLCANOES
• MAPS
• DISASTER
SCENARIOS
• HAZARD
ASSESSMENT
• RISK ASSESSMENT
KAMCHATKA’S NEXT VOLCANIC
ERUPTION IS INEVITABLE
• ---SO, DON’T WAIT FOR
ANOTHER REMINDER
OF THE IMPORTANCE
OF VOLCANO
DISASTER RESILIENCE
BEFORE YOU ACT