Transcript THE DISASTER AGENTS?

DISASTER PREPAREDNESS
A KEY ELEMENT OF BECOMING
DISASTER RESILIENT
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for
Disaster Reduction, University of
North Carolina, USA
EVERY REGION HAS CITIES AT RISK FROM NATURAL HAZARDS
CARIBBEAN
BASIN
NORTH
AMERICA
SUB-SAHARA
AFRICA
EUROPE
200 NATIONS
AND 7
BILLION PEOPLE
SOUTH
AMERICA
MEDITERRANEAN
ISLAND
NATIONS
ASIA
RISK ASSESSMENT
•NATURAL HAZARDS
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION
ACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
GOAL: DISASTER
RESILIENCE
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
CITY
FOUR PILLARS OF
RESILIENCE
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
•PREPAREDNESS
•PROTECTION
•EMERGENCY RESPONSE
•RECOVERY IENCE
DISASTERS OCCUR WHEN--A CITY’S (COMMUNITY’S)
PUBLIC POLICIES LEAVE IT …
UN—PREPARED
FOR THE INEVITABLE NATURAL HAZARDS
GLOBAL GOAL:
FROM UN—PREPARED
TO
A STATE OF
PREPAREDNESS
FOR ALL CITIES AND ALL
NATURAL HAZARDS
A FOCUS ON
HAZARD, VULNERABILITY
AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
PURPOSE:
Information
from these
assessments will facilitate
the adoption and
implementation of policies
that will enable the city to be
prepared when it happens.
HAZARD AND VULNERABILITY
ASSESSMENTS
• HAZARD-- What are the potential
disaster agents of the flood,
earthquake, severe windstorm, etc.
and how often does each one occur?
• VULNERABILITY – Does the city’s built
environment have weaknesses with
respect to any of the potential
disaster agents? What are they?
RISK AND LOSS ASSESSMENTS
• RISK—What is the chance of loss when
the potential disaster agents of a natural
hazard interact with vulnerable elements
of the built environment of a city?
• LOSS OF FUNCTION– The degree and
distribution of the losses of function?
• SOCIOECONOMIC LOSS-- How many
homeless? Jobless, Injured? Dead? And
what is the economic loss?
ELEMENTS OF RISK
HAZARDS
EXPOSURE
RISK
VULNERABILITY
LOCATION
FLOODS IN S. CA: HAZARD,
VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
• WHICH RIVER (S) WILL
OVERFLOW ITS BANKS,
DIKES, OR LEVEES?
• WHEN?
• THE DISASTER AGENTS?
• BUILT ENVIRONMENT
ELEMENTS IN FLOODPLAIN?
• EXPECTED DAMAGE?
• EXPECTED SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS?
FLOODS IN CHINA: HAZARD,
VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
• WHICH RIVER (S) WILL
OVERFLOW ITS BANKS,
DIKES, OR DAMS?
• WHEN?
• THE DISASTER AGENTS?
• BUILT ENVIRONMENT
ELEMENTS IN FLOODPLAIN?
• EXPECTED DAMAGE?
• EXPECTED SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS?
CAUSES OF
DAMAGE AND
DISASTER
LOSS OF FUNCTION OF
STRUCTURES IN FLOODPLAIN
INUNDATION
INTERACTION WITH
HAZARDOUS MATERIALS
FLOODS
CASE HISTORIES
STRUCTURAL/CONTENTS
DAMAGE FROM WATER
WATER BORNE DISEASES
(HEALTH PROBLEMS)
EROSION AND MUDFLOWS
CONTAMINATION OF GROUND
WATER
HURRICANE ANDREW: HAZARD,
VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
• WHERE WILL THE HURRICANE MAKE
LANDFALL?
• HOW BIG (CAT)?
• THE DISASTER AGENTS?
• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?
• EXPECTED DAMAGE?
• EXPECTED SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS?
TYPHOON TALAS: HAZARD,
VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
• WHERE WILL THE TYPHOON MAKE
LANDFALL?
• HOW BIG (CAT)?
• THE DISASTER AGENTS?
• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?
• EXPECTED DAMAGE?
• EXPECTED SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS?
CAUSES OF
DAMAGE/DISASTER
WIND AND WATER
PENETRATE BUILDING
ENVELOPE
UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM
FLYING DEBRIS PENETRATES
WINDOWS
SEVERE
WINDSTORMS
CASE HISTORIES
STORM SURGE AND HEAVY
PRECIPITATION
IRREGULARITIES IN
ELEVATION AND PLAN
POOR WORKMANSHIP
FAILURE OF NONSTRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
EARTHQUAKE (KOBE): HAZARD,
VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
• WHERE WILL THE
EARTHQUAKE OCCUR?
• WHEN?
• HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE?
• THE DISASTER AGENTS?
• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?
• EXPECTED DAMAGE?
• EXPECTED SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS?
EARTHQUAKE (TURKEY): HAZARD,
VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
• WHERE WILL THE
EARTHQUAKE OCCUR?
• WHEN?
• HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE?
• THE DISASTER AGENTS?
• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?
• EXPECTED DAMAGE?
• EXPECTED SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS?
CAUSES OF
DAMAGE/DISASTER
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO
HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING
SOIL AMPLIFICATION
PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT
(SOIL FAILURE AND SURFACE
FAULTING )
EARTHQUAKES
IRREGULARITIES IN MASS,
STRENGTH, AND STIFFNESS
CASE HISTORIES
FLOODING FROM TSUNAMI WAVE
RUNUP AND SEICHE
POOR DETAILING OF
STRUCTURALSYSTEM
FAILURE OF NON-STRUCTURAL
ELEMENTS
TSUNAMI (JAPAN): HAZARD,
VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
• WHERE WILL THE
TSUNAMI OCCUR?
• WHEN?
• HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE?
• THE DISASTER AGENTS?
• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?
• EXPECTED DAMAGE?
• EXPECTED SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS?
TSUNAMI (INDONESIA): HAZARD,
VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
• WHERE WILL THE
TSUNAMI OCCUR?
• WHEN?, HOW BIG?
HOW CLOSE?
• THE DISASTER
AGENTS?
• VULNERABILITIES IN
THE BUILT
ENVIRONMENT?
• EXPECTED DAMAGE?
• EXPECTED SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS?
CAUSES OF
DAMAGE/DISASTER
HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF
INCOMING WAVES
INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE
RUNUP
VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE
RUNUP
TSUNAMIS
CASE HISTORIES
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF
BUILDINGS
FLOODING
NO WARNING, OR
INADEQUATE WARNING
PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF
TSUNAMI
VOLCANIC ERUPTION (CHILE): HAZARD,
VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
• WHEN WILL THE
ERUPTION OCCUR?
• DURATION?
• HOW BIG (VEI)?
• THE DISASTER AGENTS?
• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?
• EXPECTED DAMAGE?
• EXPECTED SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS?
VOLCANIC ERUPTION (ICELAND): HAZARD,
VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
• WHEN WILL THE
ERUPTION OCCUR?
• DURATION?
• HOW BIG (VEI)?
• THE DISASTER AGENTS?
• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?
• EXPECTED DAMAGE?
• EXPECTED SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS?
CAUSES OF
DAMAGE/DISASTER
PROXIMITY TO LATERAL
BLAST
IN PATH OF PYROCLASTIC
FLOWS
IN PATH OF FLYING DEBRIS
(TEPHRA)
VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
CASE HISTORIES
IN PATH OF VOLCANIC ASH
(AVIATION)
IN PATH OF LAVA AND
PYROCLASTIC FLOWS
IN PATH OF LAHARS
IGNORING WARNING TO
EVACUATE
VOLCANO HAZARDS
(AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
• LAVA FLOWS
• LAHARS
• EARTHQUAKES (related to
movement of lava)
• “VOLCANIC WINTER”
WILDFIRE (GREECE): HAZARD,
VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
• WHEN AND WHY WILL
THE WILDFIRE OCCUR?
• LOCATION?
• DURATION?
• THE DISASTER AGENTS?
• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?
• EXPECTED DAMAGE?
• EXPECTED SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS?
WILDFIRE (RUSSIA): HAZARD,
VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
• WHEN AND WHY WILL
THE WILDFIRE OCCUR?
• LOCATION?
• DURATION?
• THE DISASTER AGENTS?
• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?
• EXPECTED DAMAGE?
• EXPECTED SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS?
CAUSES OF
DAMAGE AND
DISASTER
LIGHTNING STRIKES
MANMADE FIRES
PROXIMITY OF URBAN AREA
TO THE WILDLAND FIRE
WILDFIRES
DISASTER
LABORATORIES
WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION
(DAY/NIGHT)
DRYNESS
HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOCAL FUEL SUPPLY
LANDSLIDES (CHINA): HAZARD,
VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
• WHEN AND WHY WILL
THE LANDSLIDE
OCCUR?
• LOCATION AND SIZE?
• THE DISASTER AGENTS?
• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?
• EXPECTED DAMAGE?
• EXPECTED SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS?
LANDSLIDES (TAIWAN): HAZARD,
VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
• WHEN AND WHY WILL
THE LANDSLIDE
OCCUR?
• LOCATION AND SIZE?
• THE DISASTER AGENTS?
• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?
• EXPECTED DAMAGE?
• EXPECTED SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS?
HAZARD MAPPING AND
RISK MODELING
EXAMPLE: HAZUS MULTIPLEHAZARDE
OBJECTIVE
Clarify the capabilities and levels
of analysis of the HAZUS-MH Risk
Model
OTHER HAZARDS
• NOTE: HAZUS has now been
extended to include floods and
severe windstorms, along with
earthquakes..
HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE
• The HAZUS-MH Earthquake Program
is a comprehensive, state-of-the-art,
loss estimation methodology that was
established in the early 1980’s
• It is the standard for earthquake loss
estimation by governments in
earthquake-prone regions of the
United States.
LOSS ESTIMATION
EVENT
VULNERABILITY
EARTHQUAKE
EXPECTED
HAZARDS
LOSS
EXPOSURE
PEOPLE
STRUCTURES
PROPERTY
ENVIRONMENT
INFRASTRUCTURE
HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE
• More than 137 earthquake and
software professionals
contributed to the development of
the program through working
groups, oversight groups, pilot
studies in Boston, MA and
Portland, OR, and calibration
studies combining data and
experience.
HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE
• Loss estimation for
earthquakes involves the
probabilistic integration of
interlinked parameters of the
community’s hazard and built
environments into a
comprehensive risk model.
OTHER EARTHQUAKE LOSS
MODELS
• Private-sector companies (e.g.,
insurers and large business
enterprises) have their own
proprietary loss estimation
models, which may differ from
HAZUS in some areas of analysis..
GOOD DECISION MAKING
• HAZUS -- Earthquake provides a
reliable tool for loss estimation,
which is essential for good
decision making about
earthquake resilience at the local,
region, state, and national levels
of government.
STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS
OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE
• HAZUS is “a work in progress” that
can only get better with time as new
data (e.g., fragility curves for some
elements of the community’s hazard
and built environment) and new
experiences are added after
posteartquake studies of future
damaging earthquakes.
STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS
OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE
• HAZUS will provide relative
answers, but not absolute
answers for all communities and
all situations, but like the “Law of
large numbers” underpinning the
business of insurance, the
answers will converge and
provide a reasonable solution.
STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS
OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE
• HAZUS develops a loss
estimation scenario that is based
on specific information on the
community’s hazard and built
environments.
• The latter data are provided by the
user.
SOME DATA ON A COMMUNITY’S BUILT
ENVIRONMENT MAY NOT BE
AVAILABLE
STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS
OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE
• HAZUS contains generic default
data bases if the community does
not have all of the required
information on parameters
characterizing its hazard,
exposure, and vulnerability.
STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS
OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE
• HAZUS’ default data bases are
linked to good performance in
past earthquakes (i.e., to the
adoption and enforcement of
building codes and lifeline
standards).
STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS
OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE
• HAZUS’ default databases
include: characterization of the
hazard, characterization of
elements of the exposure,
characterization of elements of
vulnerability, and characterization
of parameter uncertainty, BUT not
community-specific databases.
STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS
OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE
• HAZUS provides the user with
the option of replacing the
basic databases (i.e., the
“default” databases) with
community-specific databases.
STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS
OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE
• HAZUS is most accurate when
applied to a class of buildings and
infrastructure in the community
that is very similar to those in the
default database, and least
accurate when applied to a
specific building or a specific
element of infrastructure.
STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS
OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE
• Losses from earthquakes of M6.0
or less tend to be overestimated,
and losses from great
earthquakes of M8.0 to M9.5 may
be so catastrophic that they are
overwhelming and meaningless
for scenario planning.
STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS
OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE
• Loss estimates for some global
communities will have greater
uncertainty than loss estimates
for other communities (e.g., in
California). Nevertheless, they are
still useful for forming public
policy for disaster resilience.
HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE
INTERDISCIPLINARY TEAM
• The community at risk should
form a team comprised of:
1. Geologist (s)
2. Seismologist (s)
3. Structural engineer (s)
4. Geotechnical engineer (s)
HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE
INTERDISCIPLINARY TEAM
5. Economist (s) – finance officers
6. Sociologist(s)
7. Emergency planner(s), from state
office of emergency services
8. Public works personnel
9. Loss estimation users.
10. Local business leader
THE GOAL OF EVERY CITY
• WELL PREPARED
FOR ALL
NATURAL
HAZARDS (E.G.,
FLOODS,
SEVERE
WINDSTORMS,
EARTHQUAKES,
ETC.)
DISASTER PREPAREDNESS
IS A “24/7” EFFORT
• KNOW YOUR
HAZARDS
• KNOW YOUR CITY
• KNOW WHAT TO
DO WHEN…
• KNOW HOW TO DO
IT WHEM…