Transcript The New Craft of Intelligence: How “State” Should Lead

®
A Nation’s best defense is an
educated citizenry. Thomas Jefferson
The New Craft of Intelligence:
How “State” Should Lead
Robert David Steele
<[email protected]>
®
9-11: Systemic Failure
®
9-11 Commission
• Let’s forget the past.
It is what it was.
• Let’s focus on the
future. We can do
better, starting now.
• What matters most is
that we change our
mind-set about who
does what,and why.
That is my focus.
®
World War III Players
NationStates
Private
Sector
Bacteria
Education vs. Catastrophe
Homo Sapiens vs. Bacteria
Governments vs. Gangs
Citizens
Citizens vs. Corporations
Gangs
Mother Earth
Water-Air-Green
®
The National Budget:
Truth-Teller About Our Priorities
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Too much of:
• Military heavy metal
• Technical collection
Not enough of:
USA
Allies
Russia
China
Rogues
Military Diplomacy Home Front
The real budget is the real policy.
Citizens must vote and provide
constant oversight if the taxpayer
dollar is to be spent wisely.
•
•
•
•
•
Humans on ground
Human expert analysis
Technical processing
State & local intelligence
Public health, water, etc.
®
Conflict Facts for 2002
23 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC
Pol Terror Level 3
Imprisonment, executions
Pol Terror Level 4
Large numbers, torture
Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2002 A. Jongman
Pol Terror Level 5
Entire public, no limits
®
Ethnic Fault Lines 2000
18 Genocide Campaigns On-Going Today
Source: Dr. Greg Stanton
®
Water & War
Hyper-Arid
1
3
4
Arid
5
Semi-Arid
6
Sub-Humid
Water
Pollution
2
Source: The State of the World
Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53
®
Global Threats to Local Survival
Complex Emergencies
32 Countries
Water Scarcity &
Contaminated Water**
Refugees/Displaced
66 Countries
Ethnic Conflict 18
Genocides Today**
Food Security
33 Countries
Resource Wars, Energy
Waste & Pollution**
Modern Plagues*
59 Countries & Rising
Corruption Common
80 Countries
Child Soldiers
41 Countries
Censorship Very High
62 Countries
*State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide),
Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002
®
Home Front
Public
Health
Weaknesses
DATA
Corruption
ECONOMIC BLAHS
No Fly No Spend No Hire
MILITARY ACHILLES’ HEELS
Off-base power, down-links, antennas
ELECTRONIC INFRASTRUCTURE
Power, Financial, Comms, Transportation
PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE
Tunnels, Pipelines, Bridges, Dams, Towers
10
®
Four Different Threats to America:
Require Four Different Security Approaches
PHYSICAL
STEALTH,
HIGH TECH
PRECISION
BRUTES
TARGETING
(BIG WAR)
ECONOMIC
WAR
HIGH TECH
CYBER STEALTH,
DATABASE
TARGETING
GUERRILLA
WAR
MONEY--RUTHLESSNESS
POWER BASE
KNOWLEDGE--IDEOLOGY
SEERS
(HOME)
CULTURAL
WAR
NATURAL
LOW TECH
STEALTH,
BRUTES
RANDOM
(GANGS)
TARGETING
TERRORISM
LOW TECH
SEERS
IDEO -
(POOR)
STEALTH,
MASS
TARGETING
®
Taxpayer Dollars Focused
on Just 10% of the Threat
15%
10%
State vs State
State vs Nation
Inter-Ethnic Tribal
25%
50%
Gang Wars, Genocide,
Decolonization
®
We’re in a Six-Front
100-Year War of Our Own Making.
I am worried that America may lose the moral high ground.
®
Modern Presidential Leadership
Congress
President
Judiciary
Chief of Staff
Director-General for
National Policy
Director-General for
Global Strategy
Director-General for
National Intelligence
Director-General for
National Research
Director of Classified
Intelligence (DCI)
Chairman, National
Intelligence Council
Director, Global
Knowledge Foundation