Transcript Drake Presentation Slides (as PowerPoint)

Evidence-Based Public Policy in the
Criminal Justice System
 Washington State’s (Evolving) Approach
What Works Conference, 2013
—Justice Reinvestment in Action—
Portland, OR
January 11, 2013
Elizabeth K. Drake
Senior Research Associate
Washington State Institute for Public Policy
(360) 586-2767
[email protected]
www.wsipp.wa.gov
Washington State Institute for Public Policy
Recent Specific Directions to WSIPP
from the WA Legislature
Created by Legislature (1983)
Mission: Non–partisan research
on projects assigned by the
Legislature or the Institute’s
Board of Directors
What works? What are the
costs & benefits of policies to
improve these outcomes?
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Crime 1994, 1999, 2003, 2005, 2009, 2012
Education, Early Ed. 2003, 2006, 2009, 2012
Child Abuse & Neglect 2003, 2007, 2009, 2012
Substance Abuse 2003, 2005, 2009, 2012
Mental Health 2005, 2009, 2012
Developmental Disabilities 2008
Teen Births 1994, 2009
Employment 2009
Public Assistance 2009
Public Health 2009
Housing 2009
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Washington legislature has asked WSIPP this question:
Are There Evidence-Based Policy Options That Improve Public
Outcomes, but at Less Cost?
Exhibit 4
Reducing Crime With Evidence-Based Options: What Works, and Benefits & Costs
Washington State Institute for Public Policy
Effect on Crime
Benefits and Costs
Estimates as of October, 2006
(Per Participant, Net Present Value, 2006 Dollars)
Outcomes
Benefits to
Benefits to
Costs
Benefits (total)
Percent change in crime
Notes:
(marginal program
outcomes, & the number of Crime Victims
Taxpayers
Minus
"n/e" means not estimated at this time.
evidence-based studies on (of the reduction (of the reduction cost, compared to
Costs
the cost of
Prevention program costs are partial program costs, pro-rated to which the estimate is based
in crime)
in crime)
(per participant)
alternative)
(in parentheses)
match crime outcomes.
.
(1)
Programs for People in the Adult Offender System
Vocational education in prison
Intensive supervision: treatment-oriented programs
General education in prison (basic education or post-secondary)
Cognitive-behavioral therapy in prison or community
Drug treatment in community
Correctional industries in prison
Drug treatment in prison (therapeutic communities or outpatient)
Adult drug courts
Employment and job training in the community
Electronic monitoring to offset jail time
Sex offender treatment in prison with aftercare
Intensive supervision: surveillance-oriented programs
Washington's Dangerously Mentally Ill Offender program
Drug treatment in jail
Adult boot camps
Domestic violence education/cognitive-behavioral treatment
Jail diversion for mentally ill offenders
Life Skills education programs for adults
Programs for Youth in the Juvenile Offender System
Multidimensional Treatment Foster Care (v. regular group care)
Adolescent Diversion Project (for lower risk offenders)
Family Integrated Transitions
Functional Family Therapy on probation
Multisystemic Therapy
Aggression Replacement Training
Teen courts
Juvenile boot camp to offset institution time
Sex offender cognitive-behavioral treatment
Restorative justice for low-risk offenders
Interagency coordination programs
Juvenile drug courts
Regular surveillance-oriented parole (v. no parole supervision)
Juvenile intensive probation supervision programs
Juvenile wilderness challenge
Juvenile intensive parole supervision
Scared Straight
Counseling/psychotherapy for juvenile offenders
Juvenile education programs
Other family-based therapy programs
Team Child
Juvenile behavior modification
Life skills education programs for juvenile offenders
Diversion progs. with services (v. regular juvenile court)
Juvenile cognitive-behavioral treatment
Court supervision vs. simple release without services
Diversion programs with services (v. simple release)
Juvenile intensive probation (as alternative to incarceration)
Guided Group Interaction
Prevention Programs (crime reduction effects only)
Nurse Family Partnership-Mothers
Nurse Family Partnership-Children
Pre-K education for low income 3 & 4 year olds
Seattle Social Development Project
High school graduation
Guiding Good Choices
Parent-Child Interaction Therapy
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
-9.0%
-16.7%
-7.0%
-6.3%
-9.3%
-5.9%
-5.7%
-8.0%
-4.3%
0%
-7.0%
0%
-20.0%
-4.5%
0%
0%
0%
0%
(4)
(11)
(17)
(25)
(6)
(4)
(20)
(57)
(16)
(9)
(6)
(23)
(1)
(9)
(22)
(9)
(11)
(4)
$8,114
$9,318
$6,325
$5,658
$5,133
$5,360
$5,133
$4,395
$2,373
$0
$6,442
$0
$18,020
$2,481
$0
$0
$0
$0
$6,806
$9,369
$5,306
$4,746
$5,495
$4,496
$4,306
$4,705
$2,386
$0
$2,885
$0
$15,116
$2,656
$0
$0
$0
$0
$1,182
$7,124
$962
$105
$574
$417
$1,604
$4,333
$400
-$870
$12,585
$3,747
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
$13,738
$11,563
$10,669
$10,299
$10,054
$9,439
$7,835
$4,767
$4,359
$870
-$3,258
-$3,747
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
-22.0%
-19.9%
-13.0%
-15.9%
-10.5%
-7.3%
-11.1%
0%
-10.2%
-8.7%
-2.5%
-3.5%
0%
0%
0%
0%
+6.8%
-18.9%
-17.5%
-12.2%
-10.9%
-8.2%
-2.7%
-2.7%
-2.5%
0%
0%
0%
0%
(3)
(6)
(1)
(7)
(10)
(4)
(5)
(14)
(5)
(21)
(15)
(15)
(2)
(3)
(9)
(10)
(10)
(6)
(3)
(12)
(2)
(4)
(3)
(20)
(8)
(8)
(7)
(5)
(4)
$51,828
$24,328
$30,708
$19,529
$12,855
$8,897
$5,907
$0
$32,515
$4,628
$3,084
$4,232
$0
$0
$0
$0
-$8,355
$23,126
$41,181
$15,006
$5,759
$19,271
$6,441
$1,441
$3,123
$0
$0
$0
$0
$32,915
$18,208
$19,502
$14,617
$9,622
$6,659
$4,238
$0
$8,377
$3,320
$2,308
$3,167
$0
$0
$0
$0
-$6,253
$17,309
$26,153
$11,231
$4,131
$12,238
$4,091
$1,034
$2,337
$0
$0
$0
$0
$6,945
$1,913
$9,665
$2,325
$4,264
$897
$936
-$8,077
$33,064
$880
$205
$2,777
$1,201
$1,598
$3,085
$6,460
$58
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
$77,798
$40,623
$40,545
$31,821
$18,213
$14,660
$9,208
$8,077
$7,829
$7,067
$5,186
$4,622
-$1,201
-$1,598
-$3,085
-$6,460
-$14,667
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
-56.2%
-16.4%
-14.2%
-18.6%
-10.4%
-9.1%
-3.7%
(1)
(1)
(8)
(1)
(1)
(1)
(1)
$11,531
$8,632
$8,145
$1,605
$1,738
$570
$268
$8,161
$4,922
$4,644
$4,341
$2,851
$2,092
$784
$5,409
$733
$593
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
$14,283
$12,822
$12,196
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
Program types in need of additional research & development before we can conclude they do or do not reduce crime outcomes:
Programs needing more research for people in the adult offender system
Comment
Case management in the community for drug offenders
0% (13)
Findings are mixed for this broad grouping of programs.
COSA (Faith-based supervision of sex offenders)
-22.3% (1)
Too few evaluations to date.
Day fines (compared to standard probation)
0% (1)
Too few evaluations to date.
Domestic violence courts
0% (2)
Too few evaluations to date.
Faith-based programs
0% (5)
Too few evaluations to date.
Intensive supervision of sex offenders in the community
0% (4)
Findings are mixed for this broad grouping of programs.
Medical treatment of sex offenders
-21.4% (1)
Too few evaluations to date.
Mixed treatment of sex offenders in the community
0% (2)
Too few evaluations to date.
Regular parole supervision vs. no parole supervision
0% (1)
Too few evaluations to date.
Restorative justice programs for lower risk adult offenders
0% (6)
Findings are mixed for this broad grouping of programs.
Therapeutic community programs for mentally ill offenders
-20.8% (2)
Too few evaluations to date.
Work release programs (from prison)
-4.3% (4)
Too few recent evaluations.
Programs needing more research for youth in the juvenile offender system
Dialectical Behavior Therapy
0% (1)
Too few evaluations to date.
Increased drug testing (on parole) vs. minimal drug testing
0% (1)
Too few evaluations to date.
Juvenile curfews
0% (1)
Too few evaluations to date.
Juvenile day reporting
0% (2)
Too few evaluations to date.
Juvenile jobs programs
0% (3)
Too few recent evaluations.
Juvenile therapeutic communities
0% (1)
Too few evaluations to date.
Mentoring in juvenile justice
0% (1)
Too few evaluations to date.
WSIPP
“Consumer Reports” Lists:
What Works?
What Doesn’t?
What Can Give Washington
Taxpayers a Good Return
(Better Outcomes) for Their Money?
Given the Current Level of
Credible Research, What Don’t
We Know?
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Adult Prison Incarceration Rates:
1930 to 2011
*Incarceration Rate
6
United States
5
4
3
Washington
2
1
0
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
*The incarceration rate is defined as the number of inmates in state prisons per 1,000 resident population in Washington or
the United States.
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Evidence-Based Programs
WSIPP’s 3-Step Research Approach
1. What works (to improve outcomes)?
We identify programs that have already been rigorously tested
(WA or elsewhere) to determine the program achieves expected
outcomes.
2. What pays off for taxpayers?
We compute benefits, costs, and risk (return on investment)
to the people of Washington for each policy option.
3. How can a “portfolio” of options affect statewide
outcomes? How much risk of failure?
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Benefit-Cost Analysis
Once we know what works, we determine how much it costs to
buy that effect size, and what’s it worth to achieve it?
What works?
CJS response to crime
To reduce crime/
recidivism relative to a
non-treated
population
Resources used and
victimizations incurred when
crime happens
CJS resources not used and victimizations avoided
Estimate benefit-cost results from effective program
We monetize the benefits to taxpayers and crime victims of future crimes avoided and
estimate the costs of a program versus the costs of not participating.
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An example…
Functional Family Therapy for Juvenile Offenders
Reduces Recidivism Rates by 22 Percent
80%
Monetize
the
savings
70%
Recidivism Rate
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Without FFT
10%
With FFT
0%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15
Follow-up Years
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Compute Benefit-Cost Statistics
Change In
Crime
Benefits Minus Costs,
per-person, life cycle
What Works to Reduce Crime?
2012 Results
Adult Offenders
Corr. Education in Prison
Cog-Behavioral Tx (mod-high risk)
Drug Tx (outpatient, community)
Drug Tx (inpatient, community)
ISP: surveillance
ISP: treatment
-16% (11)
-7% (38)
-5% (4)
-2% (5)
+0% (14)
-14% (17)
$20,298
$9,283
$5,154
$2,489
-$4,718
$7,295
Juvenile Offenders
Functional Family Thpy (QA)
Aggression Repl. Trng (QA)
-22% (8)
-20% (4)
$30,706 (100%)
$29,740 (96%)
Prevention*
Pre-School* (low income)
Nurse Family Partnership*
-21% (11)
-17% (2)
$14,934 (100%)
$13,181 (80%)
(# of EB Studies) (probability you won’t lose $)
(100%)
(100%)
(99%)
(87%)
(11%)
(96%)
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* Programs have a number of other non-crime benefits; all benefits reported here.
Compute Benefit-Cost Statistics
Functional Family Therapy: Return on Investment (2010 Dollars)
Benefits Per Family (PV)
Reduced crime
Increased high school grad
Reduced health care costs
Total Benefits Per Family
Cost Per Family (PV)
Net Present Value
Benefits Per Dollar of Cost
Main Source of Benefits
$26,802 Lower CJ & victim costs
$6,782 Increased earnings
$384 Lower public costs
$33,976
$3,270
$30,706
$10.42
(= 91% ROI)
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Follow- Up With an Outcome Evaluation:
Results from Washington’s Functional Family Therapy
35%
30%
32%
Recidivism Rate
25%
27%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
17%
Comparison youth
FFT youth
(Competent therapists)
FFT youth
(Not competent therapists)
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Evidence-Based Community Supervision (adults):
WSIPP Findings of Three Supervision Tactics
More Crime
Change in
Recidivism
Less Crime
Intensive
Supervision:
SurveillanceOriented
(14)*
Intensive
Supervision:
Treatment-Oriented
(17)*
Supervision:
Focused on Risk,
Need, &
Responsivity
(6)*
+1%
-10%
*The number of high-quality research studies on which this finding is based.
-16%
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Some Major Washington Legislative Actions
 1999-01: Funded evidence-based juvenile justice programs in late 90’s. Less
crime, save $.
 2002: Cut prison sentences for drug offenders and diverted some fiscal savings
to drug courts and treatment. Less crime, save $.
 2007: Funded a portfolio of evidence-based programs in adult and juvenile
corrections, and prevention. 2000 bed, $250 Million, prison avoided.
Adult Criminal Justice
Juvenile Justice
Cognitive behavioral therapy
Correctional education/vocation
Drug treatment community/prison
Work release
Aggression Replacement Training
Functional Family Therapy
Multisystemic Therapy
Victim offender mediation
Prevention
Early childhood education assistance program (low income 3 & 4-year olds)
Washington now explicitly ties the evidence-based program
portfolio to the official state prison forecast.
 2012: Evidence-based, research-based, and promising juvenile justice, child
welfare, and children’s mental health.
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Keeping Track of Results: Prison Beds Avoided
Average Daily Prison Population
Cumulative Effect of Washington’s History of Evidence-based Programming
24,000
22,000
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
As of 2011, there are 1,100
fewer people in prison as a
result of Washington’s
evidence-based adult, juvenile,
& prevention programs. These
effects are in the CFC prison
forecast.
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1980
Blue Area = Actual Prison Population
Orange Area = What Prison ADP would have been
without the programs.
1985
1990
1995
2000 2005
Year
Years beyond 2011
are current CFC
forecast.
2010
2015
2020
2025
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A Cheat Sheet on Six Evidence-Based Principles:
1. Evidence
Focus on research-proven prevention and intervention.
2. Economics
Compute benefits and costs: not all options have sound economics.
3. Quality assurance
Re-visit the EBP path periodically to ensure expected results.
4. Risk (for re-offense)
Follow the risk principle and align offenders with the right EBPs.
5. Funding
Encourage interest in EBPs and monitor the results. WA now ties the
official state prison forecast to the expected effects of the funded
portfolio.
6. Punishment
Focus on swiftness and certainty of punishment (strong deterrence
evidence for certainty, but not for severity of punishment).
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Questions?
“Return on Investment: EvidenceBased Options to Improve
Statewide Outcomes ”
www.wsipp.wa.gov
Thank you!
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