Transcript Presentation to the Senate Ways & Means Committee February

Cost-Effective Interventions
for Juvenile Offenders
Dr. Peter W. Greenwood
Academy of Experimental Criminology
Association for the Advancement of Evidence-Based
Practice
University of California at Irvine
VisionQuest
Greenwood & Associates
The Good News
• There are proven program strategies and
models that consistently improve
outcomes, when implemented correctly
• They cover full range of child
development
• Several pay for themselves, many times
over, in reduced corrections costs
What Works
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Functional Family Therapy
(FFT)
Multi-systemic Therapy
(MST)
Treatment Foster Care
(TFC)
Nurse-Family Partnerships
(NFP)
Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT)
Aggression Replacement Training (ART)
Program Accountability
(QA)
2005 Legislative Direction (ESSB 6094):
 “Study options to stabilize future prison populations.”
 “Study the net short-run and long-run fiscal savings
to state and local governments of implementing…
 evidence-based treatment human service and
corrections programs and policies, including
prevention and intervention programs,
 sentencing alternatives,
 and the use of risk factors in sentencing.”
 “Project total fiscal impacts under alternative
implementation scenarios.”
WSIPP published report in October, 2006
2 of 7
Adult Prison Incarceration Rates:
1930 to 2005
*Incarceration Rate
12
11
United
States
10
9
8
7
6
Forecast
for WA
5
4
3
Washington
2
1
0
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
*The incarceration rate is defined as the number of inmates in state prisons per 1,000
18- to 49-year-olds in Washington or the United States.
3 of 7
Crime Rates and Taxpayer Costs
?
Percent Change Since 1980
+100%
+80%
Taxpayer Costs Are Up
(Inflation-Adjusted Criminal Justice
Dollars Per Household)
+60%
$$
+40%
+20%
0%
$$$$
$
$$
$
$
-20%
-40%
1980
$$
$
$
$
$
$
$ $$
$
$
$
In 2005, crime
rates were 26%
lower than they
were in 1980.
Crime Rates Are Down
(Violent and Property Crimes
Reported to Police, Per 1,000 People)
1985
1990
1995
In 1980, taxpayers
spent $589 per
household on the
Criminal Justice ?
System. Today
they spend $1,125:
a 91% increase. ?
2000
2005
2010
?
2015
All Data are for Washington State: 1980 to 2005
4 of 7
Results for Three Example Portfolios of Evidence-Based Options
Prison Supply & Demand in Washington: 2008 to 2030
30,000 Prison Beds
28,000
26,000
Prison Bed
CFCCurrent
prison forecast
andForecast
WSIPP extension
Forecast
with
Current
Level Portfolio
Current
Level
Portfolio
Forecast
with Moderate
Implementation
Portfolio
“Moderate”
Expansion
Portfolio
Forecast with Aggressive Implementation Portfolio
“Aggressive” Expansion Portfolio
24,000
22,000
2 prison
shortfall
3
20,000
18,000
16,000
Existing Prison Supply
& Rented Jail Beds
0
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Taxpayer Summary Statistics
Current Level
Annual cost of portfolio
$41 million
Long-run benefits minus costs
$1.1 billion
$2.45
Benefit-to-cost ratio
Return on investment
24%
Crime Rate in 2020 (2005 rate = 52)
48
Moderate
$63 million
$1.7 billion
$2.55
27%
48
Aggressive
$85 million
$2.4 billion
$2.60
28%
49 6 of 7
Evidence-Based Programs, Crime Outcomes
Expected
Change
In Crime
Selected Results
Adult Offenders
(# of EB Studies)
Cog-Behavioral Treatment
Education Prms., Prison
Drug Tx in Prison (TC or out-patient)
Adult Drug Courts
ISP: surveillance
ISP: treatment
Benefits
minus Costs
(per-person,
life cycle)
-6.3% (25)
-7.0% (17)
-5.7% (20)
-8.0% (57)
-0.0% (23)
-17.1% (11)
$10,299
$10,669
$7,835
$4,767
-$3,747
$11,563
-15.9% (7)
-13.0% (1)
-7.3% (4)
-8.7% (21)
$31,821
$40,545
$14,660
$7,067
-14.2% (8)
-36.3% (2)
$12,196
$27,105
Juvenile Offenders
Functional Family Thpy.
Family Int. Transitions
Aggression Repl. Trng.
Restorative Justice (low risk)
Prevention
Pre-School* (low income)
Nurse Family Partnership*
What does this mean for
Connecticut
• State has been leader in implementing
E-B programs
• Evidence suggests these investments
have high pay-off
• But these programs are not available to
youth at highest risk
For further information
• Greenwood, P.W., Changing Lives: Delinquency
Prevention as Crime Control Policy,, University of
Chicago Press (2006)
• Greenwood, P. W. Promising Solutions in Juvenile
Justice in Dishion, T. and K. Dodge (eds.) Deviant Peer
Influences in Programs for Youth, Guilford Press (2006)
• www.greenwoodassociates.org
• [email protected]
• www.wsipp.org