Transcript 2 of 12 Washington State Institute for Public Policy Created by the

Crime Trends in Washington
& Evidence-Based Policy Options that
Reduce Crime and Save Money
Smart Justice Spokane Symposium
November 9, 2012
Steve Aos
Director
Washington State Institute for Public Policy
Phone: (360) 586-2740
E-mail: [email protected]
Institute Publications: www.wsipp.wa.gov
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Washington State Institute for Public Policy
Created by the 1983 Legislature
Mission: carry out non–partisan research on projects assigned
by the legislature or the Institute’s Board of Directors
Board of Directors
Senator Mark Schoesler, Co-Chair
Representative Mary Lou Dickerson, Co-Chair
Senator Mike Carrell
Senator Karen Fraser
Senator Jeanne Kohl-Welles
Representative Glenn Anderson
Representative Cary Condotta
Representative Phyllis Kenney
Ken Conte, House Staff
Richard Rodger, Senate Staff
Stan Marshburn, OFM Director
Kari Burrell, Gov. Policy Office
Sandra Archibald, Univ. of WA
James Gaudino, Central WA Univ.
Les Purce, The Evergreen State Col.
Robert Rosenman, WA State Univ.
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Good News
Principles
Application in WA
Two Goals
Change in Crime Rates
United States and Washington:
1980 to 2011
United States
Washington
Crime Rates :
-45%
-46%
Homicide Rates:
-48%
-49%
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Good News
Principles
Application in WA
Two Goals
Adult Prison Incarceration Rates:
1930 to 2011
*Incarceration Rate
United States
6
5
4
Washington
3
2
1
0
1930 1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
*The incarceration rate is defined as the number of inmates in state prisons per 1,000 resident population
in Washington or the United States.
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Good News
Principles
Application in WA
Two Goals
Keeping Track of Results:
the Incarceration-Crime Relationship
(non-drug crimes per 1,000 pop)
Washington’s Crime Rate
75
1980
70
‘88
‘86
‘89
‘90 ‘85 ‘91 ‘92
‘81
65
‘82
60
55
‘87
‘83 ‘84
‘93 ‘94
‘95
‘96
‘97
‘98
‘04
‘03
‘05
‘99
50
‘00 ‘02
2006
‘01
45
2007
2008
40  Crime is now falling without expensive 2010
increases in incarceration rates.
2009
2011
Key Development:
 The long-term link between
incarceration and crime in WA
appears to have changed, favorably,
around 2006.
35
 Better public policies have had a role in
the improved results.
30
1
2
3
Washington’s Incarceration Rate (ADP per 1,000 pop)
4
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Good News
Principles
Application in WA
Two Goals
Evidence-Based Policies that
Reduce Crime and Save Money:
—four principles that improve the odds of success—
1. Risk
More crime can be avoided when policies focus on
higher-risk (rather than lower-risk) offender populations.
2. Treatment (delivered with fidelity)
Benefit-cost evidence indicates that some policies work and
others do not. Careful selection and implementation needed.
3. Swift and Certain Response/Punishment
Clear evidence (for crime deterrence) for certainty,
but not for severity of punishment.
4. Budget Drivers (aka: incentives)
Deliver savings to taxpayers by tying policies to budget drivers
(e.g. fiscal notes & caseloads); incentive funding formulas.
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Good News
Principles
Application in WA
Two Goals
Prison is Increasingly Used for Violent Offenders
Change in Average Violent Felony Risk Scores Since 1990
+35%
+30%
+25%
+20%
+15%
Since 1990, the average
violent felony risk score of
offenders released from
Washington prisons has
increased more than 30%.
+10%
+5%
+0%
-5%
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
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Good News
Principles
Application in WA
Two Goals
Evidence-Based Lists Can Now be Produced:
What Works (and what pays off) in Criminal Justice?
Exhibit 4
Reducing Crime With Evidence-Based Options: What Works, and Benefits & Costs
Washington State Institute for Public Policy
Effect on Crime
Benefits and Costs
Estimates as of October, 2006
(Per Participant, Net Present Value, 2006 Dollars)
Outcomes
Benefits to
Benefits to
Costs
Benefits (total)
Percent change in crime
Notes:
(marginal program
outcomes, & the number of Crime Victims
Taxpayers
Minus
"n/e" means not estimated at this time.
evidence-based studies on (of the reduction (of the reduction cost, compared to
Costs
the cost of
Prevention program costs are partial program costs, pro-rated to which the estimate is based
in crime)
in crime)
(per participant)
alternative)
(in parentheses)
match crime outcomes.
.
(1)
Programs for People in the Adult Offender System
Vocational education in prison
Intensive supervision: treatment-oriented programs
General education in prison (basic education or post-secondary)
Cognitive-behavioral therapy in prison or community
Drug treatment in community
Correctional industries in prison
Drug treatment in prison (therapeutic communities or outpatient)
Adult drug courts
Employment and job training in the community
Electronic monitoring to offset jail time
Sex offender treatment in prison with aftercare
Intensive supervision: surveillance-oriented programs
Washington's Dangerously Mentally Ill Offender program
Drug treatment in jail
Adult boot camps
Domestic violence education/cognitive-behavioral treatment
Jail diversion for mentally ill offenders
Life Skills education programs for adults
Programs for Youth in the Juvenile Offender System
Multidimensional Treatment Foster Care (v. regular group care)
Adolescent Diversion Project (for lower risk offenders)
Family Integrated Transitions
Functional Family Therapy on probation
Multisystemic Therapy
Aggression Replacement Training
Teen courts
Juvenile boot camp to offset institution time
Sex offender cognitive-behavioral treatment
Restorative justice for low-risk offenders
Interagency coordination programs
Juvenile drug courts
Regular surveillance-oriented parole (v. no parole supervision)
Juvenile intensive probation supervision programs
Juvenile wilderness challenge
Juvenile intensive parole supervision
Scared Straight
Counseling/psychotherapy for juvenile offenders
Juvenile education programs
Other family-based therapy programs
Team Child
Juvenile behavior modification
Life skills education programs for juvenile offenders
Diversion progs. with services (v. regular juvenile court)
Juvenile cognitive-behavioral treatment
Court supervision vs. simple release without services
Diversion programs with services (v. simple release)
Juvenile intensive probation (as alternative to incarceration)
Guided Group Interaction
Prevention Programs (crime reduction effects only)
Nurse Family Partnership-Mothers
Nurse Family Partnership-Children
Pre-K education for low income 3 & 4 year olds
Seattle Social Development Project
High school graduation
Guiding Good Choices
Parent-Child Interaction Therapy
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
-9.0%
-16.7%
-7.0%
-6.3%
-9.3%
-5.9%
-5.7%
-8.0%
-4.3%
0%
-7.0%
0%
-20.0%
-4.5%
0%
0%
0%
0%
(4)
(11)
(17)
(25)
(6)
(4)
(20)
(57)
(16)
(9)
(6)
(23)
(1)
(9)
(22)
(9)
(11)
(4)
$8,114
$9,318
$6,325
$5,658
$5,133
$5,360
$5,133
$4,395
$2,373
$0
$6,442
$0
$18,020
$2,481
$0
$0
$0
$0
$6,806
$9,369
$5,306
$4,746
$5,495
$4,496
$4,306
$4,705
$2,386
$0
$2,885
$0
$15,116
$2,656
$0
$0
$0
$0
$1,182
$7,124
$962
$105
$574
$417
$1,604
$4,333
$400
-$870
$12,585
$3,747
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
$13,738
$11,563
$10,669
$10,299
$10,054
$9,439
$7,835
$4,767
$4,359
$870
-$3,258
-$3,747
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
-22.0%
-19.9%
-13.0%
-15.9%
-10.5%
-7.3%
-11.1%
0%
-10.2%
-8.7%
-2.5%
-3.5%
0%
0%
0%
0%
+6.8%
-18.9%
-17.5%
-12.2%
-10.9%
-8.2%
-2.7%
-2.7%
-2.5%
0%
0%
0%
0%
(3)
(6)
(1)
(7)
(10)
(4)
(5)
(14)
(5)
(21)
(15)
(15)
(2)
(3)
(9)
(10)
(10)
(6)
(3)
(12)
(2)
(4)
(3)
(20)
(8)
(8)
(7)
(5)
(4)
$51,828
$24,328
$30,708
$19,529
$12,855
$8,897
$5,907
$0
$32,515
$4,628
$3,084
$4,232
$0
$0
$0
$0
-$8,355
$23,126
$41,181
$15,006
$5,759
$19,271
$6,441
$1,441
$3,123
$0
$0
$0
$0
$32,915
$18,208
$19,502
$14,617
$9,622
$6,659
$4,238
$0
$8,377
$3,320
$2,308
$3,167
$0
$0
$0
$0
-$6,253
$17,309
$26,153
$11,231
$4,131
$12,238
$4,091
$1,034
$2,337
$0
$0
$0
$0
$6,945
$1,913
$9,665
$2,325
$4,264
$897
$936
-$8,077
$33,064
$880
$205
$2,777
$1,201
$1,598
$3,085
$6,460
$58
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
$77,798
$40,623
$40,545
$31,821
$18,213
$14,660
$9,208
$8,077
$7,829
$7,067
$5,186
$4,622
-$1,201
-$1,598
-$3,085
-$6,460
-$14,667
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
-56.2%
-16.4%
-14.2%
-18.6%
-10.4%
-9.1%
-3.7%
(1)
(1)
(8)
(1)
(1)
(1)
(1)
$11,531
$8,632
$8,145
$1,605
$1,738
$570
$268
$8,161
$4,922
$4,644
$4,341
$2,851
$2,092
$784
$5,409
$733
$593
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
$14,283
$12,822
$12,196
n/e
n/e
n/e
n/e
Program types in need of additional research & development before we can conclude they do or do not reduce crime outcomes:
Programs needing more research for people in the adult offender system
Comment
Case management in the community for drug offenders
0% (13)
Findings are mixed for this broad grouping of programs.
COSA (Faith-based supervision of sex offenders)
-22.3% (1)
Too few evaluations to date.
Day fines (compared to standard probation)
0% (1)
Too few evaluations to date.
Domestic violence courts
0% (2)
Too few evaluations to date.
Faith-based programs
0% (5)
Too few evaluations to date.
Intensive supervision of sex offenders in the community
0% (4)
Findings are mixed for this broad grouping of programs.
Medical treatment of sex offenders
-21.4% (1)
Too few evaluations to date.
Mixed treatment of sex offenders in the community
0% (2)
Too few evaluations to date.
Regular parole supervision vs. no parole supervision
0% (1)
Too few evaluations to date.
Restorative justice programs for lower risk adult offenders
0% (6)
Findings are mixed for this broad grouping of programs.
Therapeutic community programs for mentally ill offenders
-20.8% (2)
Too few evaluations to date.
Work release programs (from prison)
-4.3% (4)
Too few recent evaluations.
Programs needing more research for youth in the juvenile offender system
Dialectical Behavior Therapy
0% (1)
Too few evaluations to date.
Increased drug testing (on parole) vs. minimal drug testing
0% (1)
Too few evaluations to date.
Juvenile curfews
0% (1)
Too few evaluations to date.
Juvenile day reporting
0% (2)
Too few evaluations to date.
Juvenile jobs programs
0% (3)
Too few recent evaluations.
Juvenile therapeutic communities
0% (1)
Too few evaluations to date.
Mentoring in juvenile justice
0% (1)
Too few evaluations to date.
Our
“Consumer Reports”
Lists:
What Works?
What Doesn’t?
What Can Give Washington
Taxpayers a Good Return on
Their Money?
Given the Current Level
of Rigorous Research,
What Don’t We Know?
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Good News
Principles
Application in WA
What Works to Reduce Crime? Change In
Crime
(April 2012 Results)
Adult Offenders
(# of EB Studies)
Cog-Behavioral Treatment
-7% (38)
Adult Drug Courts
-17% (67)
Education Programs
-16% (11)
Drug Tx in Prison (TC or out-patient) -12% (21)
ISP: surveillance only
0% (14)
ISP: treatment focus
-14% (17)
Juvenile Offenders*
Functional Family Therapy
-22% (8)
Multisystemic Therapy
-13% (11)
Aggression Repl. Training
-20% (4)
Scared Straight
+8% (10)
MDT Foster Care
-9% (3)
Prevention*
Pre-School* (low income)
-21% (11)
Nurse Family Partnership*
-17% (3)
Two Goals
Benefits Minus Costs,
per-person, life cycle
(Probability: you lose $)
$9,283
$11,255
$20,298
$10,974
-$4,718
$7,295
(<1%)
(<1%)
(<1%)
(<1%)
(89%)
(4%)
$30,706 (<1%)
$24,751 (2%)
$29,740 (4%)
-$9,887 (100%)
$31,276 (15%)
$14,934 (<1%)
$13,182 (20%)
* Programs have a number of other non-crime benefits; all benefits reported here.
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Principles
Application in WA
Two Goals
Evidence-Based Community Supervision of Adult Offenders:
Three Findings from WSIPP Research Reviews
Change in
Criminal
Recidivism
Intensive
Supervision:
SurveillanceOriented
(14)*
Intensive
Supervision:
TreatmentOriented
(17)*
Supervision:
Focused on Risk,
Treatment, &
Response
(6)*
+1%
-10%
($1.93 b/c)
*The number of high-quality research studies on which this finding is based.
-16%
($6.83 b/c)
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Good News
Principles
Application in WA
Two Goals
Keeping Track of Results: Prison Beds Avoided
Average Daily Prison Population
Cumulative Effect of Washington’s History of Evidence-based Programming
24,000
22,000
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
As of 2011, there are 1,100
fewer people in prison as
a result of Washington’s
evidence-based adult,
juvenile, & prevention
programs. These effects
are in the CFC prison
forecast.
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1980
Blue Area
= Actual Prison Population
Orange Area = What ADP would have been
without the programs.
1985
1990
1995
2000 2005
Year
Years beyond 2011
are current CFC
forecast.
2010
2015
2020
2025
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Principles
Application in WA
Two Goals
Two “Big Picture” Goals of Criminal Justice
Crime Reduction
(to achieve less crime in the future)
Justice
(to address criminal wrongs done in the past)
Benefit-cost and recidivism risk findings
can help policymakers with the crime reduction goal,
but they are pretty much silent on the justice goal.
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ANNUAL CRIMINAL JUSTICE ISSUE
EXCLUSIVE RATINGS
Over 200 Crime–Related Programs and Policies
Institute
Publications:
www.wsipp.wa.gov
S
Reports Are
Available on:
Criminal Justice
Juvenile Justice
Programs
Child Welfare
programs
Education
Mental Health
Substance Abuse taxpayer dollars
programs
Prevention
reduce
…More on the way that
crime and save
taxpayers
money.
BEST 2012
Crime
Policies to
Adopt
Thank You
Appendix
Crime Rates: Violent & Property
Washington and United States: 1980 to 2010
Violent Crime Rate*
10
9
90
8
80
United States
7
70
6
60
5
50
4
40
3
2
1
0
20
Violent crime has dropped since the
mid-1990s, and Washington’s rate
remains lower than the US.
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Washington
30
Washington
1980
Property Crime Rate*
100
10
0
2010
United States
Property crime rates have declined,
and the gap between Washington
and the US has narrowed.
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
* Crime rates are the number of reported crimes to police per 1,000 resident population. Source: WASPC and FBI.
2010
Juvenile Arrest Rates: Closing the Gap
Juvenile Arrest Rate
(arrests per 1,000 10-17 year olds)
Long-Term Trends in Juvenile Arrest Rates (1985 to 2010)
60
Washington
50
40
30
20
10
0
United States
 Prior to the mid-1990s, Washington’s juvenile
arrest rate was consistently higher than the US rate.
 The gap started to close in the mid-1990s.
 Today, the two juvenile arrest rates are virtually identical.
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Year
DOC Risk-Level Classifications of Adult Offenders:
The Timing of Recidivism in Washington State for…
…a New Felony Conviction
…a Violent Felony Conviction
4.0%
4.0%
Classified by DOC as:
High, Violent
3.5%
3.5%
3.0%
3.0%
2.5%
2.5%
High,
2.0% NonViolent
2.0%
1.5%
1.5%
Classified by DOC as:
High, Violent
Moderate
1.0%
1.0%
0.5%
0.5%
0.0%
Lower
1
6
0.0%
12
18
24
30
36
Months After Being At-Risk in the Community
1
6
12
18
24
30
36
Months After Being At-Risk in the Community
Source: WSIPP analysis of data from the Administrative Office of the Courts and the Department of Corrections
Trends in Adult Recidivism in Washington: 1990-2007
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Annual prison release cohorts by DOC risk classification level
Violent Felony Re-conviction
Any Felony Re-conviction (within 3 years after release)
Among moderate risk
offenders released from
prison in 2007, 20% were
reconvicted for a new
felony within three years.
Among moderate risk
offenders released from
prison in 1990, 31% were
reconvicted for a new
felony within three years.
31%
20%
'90'92'94'96'98'00'02'04'06 '90'92'94'96'98'00'02'04'06 '90'92'94'96'98'00'02'04'06 '90'92'94'96'98'00'02'04'06
Lower Risk
(20% of total prison pop)
Moderate Risk
(17%)
High, Non-violent
(19%)
High, Violent
(44%)
Risk Classification Level of Offenders In Prison
by year of release from prison
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